In theory, player comparisons are great. With the simple association of one name to another, a draft analyst can formulate a precise projection for a prospect at the next level. They can narrow the scope of error and subjectivity for readers. However, there is a problem with player comparisons. The projections tend to work against the very projective aspect that makes the NFL Draft what it is.
The comparison to Barkevious Mingo
It’s too easy for people to fixate on one comparison, and subsequently disregard other outcomes. 2020 NFL Draft prospect K’Lavon Chaisson is a victim of this syndrome. His athletic and production profiles have caused some to mention him in the same breath as former LSU standout, Barkevious Mingo. Chaisson, however, is a legitimate top-tier prospect, and context helps bring that to light.
Mingo isn’t the only player NFL Draft prospect Chaisson has been compared to in the pre-draft cycle. High-end comps have likened Chaisson to players like Andre Carter and 2019 sack leader Shaquil Barrett, but his relative lack of production has some concerned that, much like Mingo, he’ll fail to carve out a succinct role for himself in the NFL.
For those of you who aren’t familiar with Mingo, here’s a quick rundown of his career thus far. Mingo, much like Chaisson, was an LSU edge rusher being hyped as a first-round pick back in the spring of 2013. He was selected sixth overall by the Cleveland Browns and proceeded to log just seven sacks in his first three seasons with the team before he was traded to the New England Patriots for a 2017 fifth-round pick.
Since being traded to New England, Mingo has bounced around the league from year to year, making stops in Indianapolis, Seattle, and Houston. In Seattle, he was a consistent starter at linebacker and provided valuable versatility. Despite his modest peak, Mingo was never able to realize the pass-rushing potential which he presented in the 2013 NFL Draft.
Early in his career, Mingo dealt with injuries and a lack of a defined role, which may have eroded at the development of his raw pass-rushing traits, and ultimately led to his current status as a career journeyman. The concern with Chaisson is that he might be prone to a similar fate, given his proportional lack of NFL development. There are a few distinguishing factors that need to be addressed, however, before making that assumption.
How Chaisson’s NFL Draft profile differs
Both Chaisson and Mingo are incredibly explosive athletes for their size. In 2013, Mingo logged a 4.58 40-yard dash and a 37-inch vertical at 6-foot-4, 241 pounds. Although his athletic numbers are not available, Chaisson has similarly stark explosiveness off the line of scrimmage on tape. He covers a ton of ground off the snap, and does so in a flash, forcing linemen to compensate for that loss of leverage.
Despite this explosiveness, neither Chaisson nor Mingo managed to produce on a dominant scale at the collegiate level. Chaisson’s production peaked in 2019, when he logged 13 tackles for loss and 6.5 sacks, while Mingo’s dipped dramatically in his final collegiate campaign. The production box isn’t an all-encompassing one, but it’s a box most top-tier prospects are expected to check. Is Chaisson an exception, or is this the negative indicator it’s perceived to be?
Size – Chaisson vs. Mingo
The first distinction that must be made between Chaisson and Mingo, who represents the “bust” player archetype that some have associated with Chaisson, is their size. Mingo was 241 pounds at 6-foot-4, and although he was longer than Chaisson, his ability to take on a full-time edge role was questioned because of his relatively lanky frame, as well as his visible lack of consistency when it came to using his length. Lankiness isn’t a problem if prospects know how to use their length to compensate for mismatches in power (see Brian Burns), but Mingo was very raw. Thus, he was never able to transcend his pivotal limitations.
Chaisson, in contrast, possesses a thicker frame than Mingo. Chaisson is listed as being 254 pounds at 6-foot-3, with arms over 32 inches long. He has a much more sturdy build as an edge rusher, and he carries his weight well, offering immense fluidity in space, as well as bright flashes of speed and bend around the edge. Chaisson is relatively raw, just as Mingo was, but he has a more well-rounded physical profile to combat that, both as a pass rusher and a run defender.
Production is similar, but it’s not the same
Let’s also talk about production and refinement, because Chaisson and Mingo, while similar on the surface, are not of the same vein in that department either. Mingo’s production peaked in his sophomore season, and then was almost cut in half the following year, alluding to a lack of development from the Tigers star. Chaisson, meanwhile, is leaving for the NFL on the uptrend, which is an important positive indicator. He came back from a season-ending injury in 2018 and posted career-high numbers in 2019.
Chaisson’s technical development as a pass rusher over time also separates him from Mingo. Mingo played 39 college games, while Chaisson only played 24. And yet, Chaisson has already shown more propensity for development. His pass-rushing hand technique and counters grew more refined and consistent as the 2019 season went on. Given his loss of experience to injury in the previous year, Chaisson’s quick growth only becomes more impressive. Mingo’s lack of progression amidst stable conditions should have been a major red flag toward his status as a first-round prospect, and Chaisson’s remarkable degree of development, despite adversity, should be the opposite.
Chaisson is also two years younger than Mingo was coming out, so Chaisson has a considerably larger window for further development. After his 2019 season, that development can reasonably be projected. There’s always going to be a degree of uncertainty when picking prospects at the top of the NFL Draft. Ideally, a prospect like Chaisson — with all the athletic traits necessary to flourish — would check the production box with more authority. But the specific context of Chaisson’s situation shows that fulfillment of the production requirement wasn’t necessary for him in college and that he should make up for it in the NFL.