The weather forecast for the NFL Wild Card Weekend playoff game between the Miami Dolphins and Kansas City Chiefs has been in sharp focus this week. With temperatures set to be below zero and gusts up to 25-28 mph making it feel even colder, we could see records set.
What Is the Weather Forecast for the Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs Game?
Let’s take a look at the details of the latest weather forecast from the National Weather Service, and what impact the conditions could have on the game in Kansas City.
- Temperature: -1 to -5 with wind chill from -23 to -27
- Precipitation: <5% chance of precipitation
- Wind: 18-20 mph sustained northwesterly winds with gusts up to 25-28 mph
The weather forecast is from the National Weather Service and updated as of 4 a.m. ET on Saturday, Jan. 13.
The forecast in Kansas City has remained fairly consistent all week, and that remains the case entering Saturday morning. This cold weather has now been in the Kansas City area for the last couple of days and is expected to persist through the weekend and as far as Monday.
If the current weather forecast holds, then this game could end up being either the third- or fourth-coldest game in NFL history.
Currently in third is the game between the Seattle Seahawks and Minnesota Vikings from 2016, which had a recorded temperature of -6 and a wind chill of -25. Fourth on the list is the game between the New York Giants and Green Bay Packers in 2008, where temperatures reached -4 with a wind chill of -24.
Compounding the issue here is that this is a 7 p.m. ET kickoff in Kansas City. If the game had been scheduled for a 1 p.m. or 4 p.m. kickoff, the temperature at the start of the game would have been above zero. However, even then, the wind chill would have still been at a high of -15.
The good news for everyone involved in the game or watching in the stadium is that there is not expected to be any precipitation during the game itself. There is some potential for snow earlier in the day, but not during the game.
The lack of precipitation should limit the impact of the weather. The impact of cold weather tends to hamper the ability of QBs to grip the ball when throwing, while also being a factor in injuries. In terms of the scoring, there is a mixed history for these cold-weather games.
The Seahawks-Vikings game finished 10-9, while the Giants-Packers game finished 23-20. In the Seahawks-Vikings game, Russell Wilson and Teddy Bridgewater combined for 288 passing yards and one touchdown, and neither starting RB averaged over 3.5 yards per attempt.
In contrast, the game between the Giants and Packers saw Eli Manning and Brett Favre combine for 487 yards and two touchdowns. In that game, both Plaxico Burress and Donald Driver went over 100 receiving yards with Burress hitting 151 and Driver 141.
In those two games, the recorded wind speed was slightly lower than this one at 12 mph. This weekend’s game should see winds closer to 20 mph with gusts above and beyond that.
However, this is not a call for you to rush and bet the under, because, for the most part, sportsbooks account for this weather and often over-emphasize it. Studies on cold weather games have shown that there is not a huge drop in average scoring. The bigger impact here is likely to come from the wind than the temperature itself.
Once you get above 15-20 mph winds, that is when we start to see games become impacted in terms of scoring. In these instances, the impact can be seen on deep passes and field goal kicking. The impact on field goals has a knock-on effect of seeing more teams going for it on fourth-and-short-to-medium in longer field goal situations.
However, as the stats for Driver and Burress show us, these conditions can still be conducive to offensive success. Both Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw had double-digit fantasy points in their game against the Packers in 2008. Therefore, from a playoff fantasy football or DFS perspective, it would not be wise to blindly fade all of the top offensive weapons in this game.
A prime example is Tyreek Hill, who played for the Chiefs in these temperatures and had success in cold-weather games. However, given the record level of the temperature in Kansas City, even Hill did not experience these temperatures during his time there.
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The same can be said of Travis Kelce, who has starred in past January games in Kansas City but not played many games in temperatures that are below zero. Other options to consider in your fantasy or DFS lineups include Isiah Pacheco and De’Von Achane, who could see higher usage than normal if the QBs struggle to grip the ball.
In terms of betting on this game, going under 43.5 could be intriguing. These two sides have both struggled when facing teams that made the playoffs this season. The Chiefs average just 18.8 points per game against playoff times, while the Dolphins are at 17.7. Their meeting under the roof in Frankfurt, Germany finished 21-14 for the Chiefs.