KANSAS CITY, Mo. — Goodbye Tropics, hello Arctic. It’ll feel that way at least for the Miami Dolphins, who open the 2023 postseason here against the Kansas City Chiefs in what will be one of the coldest games in NFL history.
The Chiefs begin their world championship defense against a Dolphins team that has not won a playoff game — let alone a Super Bowl — in nearly a quarter century. If the Dolphins win, it’ll be their first playoff victory in sub-freezing temperatures in the team’s 58-year history.
Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs Game Preview
Saturday’s Wild Card game is a rematch of a Week 9 showdown in Germany, a game the Chiefs hung on to win after nearly blowing a three-touchdown lead.
The Dolphins had the ball with a chance to tie in the final moments, but Tua Tagovailoa lost a fumble on fourth down at the Chiefs’ 31.
This is the 33rd time these two historic franchises have met, with the all-time series tied 16-16. The Chiefs have a 2-1 edge in playoff games.
PFN’s predictions, plus seven key stats courtesy of Inside Edge, are below.
Six Dolphins-Chiefs Stats From Inside Edge
Stat: The Dolphins had a third down conversion rate of just 7.1% on 3rd and 10 or more over the last four weeks of the regular season — tied for fifth-worst in the NFL. The Chiefs defense allowed a third down conversion rate of just 6.2% on 3rd and 10+ over the last four weeks of the regular season — tied for second-best in the NFL.
Analysis: Jaylen Waddle’s agent, Joel Segal, should use the Dolphins’ struggles over the last two weeks with Waddle on the injured list as Exhibit A when he asks for a new contract this offseason.
Stat: Chiefs running backs have rushed for 10 or more yards on just 8.0% of 653 carries since the 2022 season — fourth-worst in the NFL. The Dolphins have allowed 10+ yards on just 6.9% of carries to RBs since the 2022 season — third-best in the NFL.
Analysis: It’ll be interesting to see if the Dolphins’ sixth-ranked rush defense (3.8 yards per carry) can withstand the loss of two more front seven players (Andrew Van Ginkel and Jerome Baker).
Stat: The Chiefs have 69 touchdown passes since the 2022 season — most in the NFL. The Dolphins have allowed 54 passing TDs since the 2022 season — tied for fourth-most in the NFL.
Analysis: Patrick Mahomes throws to score, regardless of where the Chiefs are on the field. The Chiefs have thrown the ball 55.0% of the time in the red zone this season — third-highest in the NFL. That’s a problem for a Dolphins defense with three-fourths of its secondary hurt.
Stat: The Dolphins scored on 23.1% of their drives in the fourth quarter over the last four weeks of the regular season — tied for third-worst in the NFL. The Chiefs defense allowed scores on 15.4% of opponent drives in the fourth quarter over the last four weeks of the regular season — best in the NFL.
Analysis: Tagovailoa led the NFL in passing in 2023, but for all the strides he’s made, he’s still a below-average quarterback when the Dolphins trail by one score in the last five minutes of games.
Stat: Chiefs tight ends have 275 receptions in 34 games (8.1 per game) since the 2022 season — best in the NFL. The Dolphins have allowed 5.6 receptions per game to TEs since the 2022 season — third-worst in the NFL.
Analysis: This year, Kansas City’s passing game isn’t what it has been in recent seasons, but that doesn’t mean it was bad. Travis Kelce still ranked third among all tight ends with 93 catches for 984 yards and five touchdowns.
MORE: Miami Dolphins’ Tyreek Hill Reveals the Reason for His Pesky Drops
Stat: The Dolphins had a third down conversion rate of just 25.0% in the second half over the last four weeks of the regular season — third-worst in the NFL. The Chiefs defense allowed a third down conversion rate of just 21.4% in the second half over the last four weeks of the regular season — second-best in the NFL.
Analysis: Teams have seemingly figured out the Dolphins as games have gone on. The Bills adjusted to an eight-man front to stop De’Von Achane and Miami’s rushing attack, and Tagovailoa couldn’t make them pay.
Dolphins vs. Chiefs Predictions
- Adam Beasley: Chiefs
- David Bearman: Chiefs
- Mike Gambardella: Chiefs
- Dalton Miller: Chiefs
- Jay Morrison: Chiefs
- Dallas Robinson: Chiefs
Want to predict the results of the 2023 NFL postseason with our FREE NFL Playoff Predictor? How about looking into in-depth breakdowns of team depth charts or the NFL playoff schedule? Pro Football Network has you covered with all that and more!
