This matchup between the Miami Dolphins and Kansas City Chiefs has all of the potential to be an exciting game, given the upside of these two offenses. Kansas City playoff games have never disappointed during the Patrick Mahomes era, and my Dolphins vs. Chiefs same game parlay (+490) forecasts more of the same.
Dolphins vs. Chiefs Betting Lines
- Spread
Chiefs -4.5 - Moneyline
Dolphins +180, Chiefs -215 - Total
44.5
Dolphins vs. Chiefs Same Game Parlay
We here at Soppe HQ like to encourage responsible gaming, and in that vein, I’ll always offer you a trivia question off the top of these articles. Pose this question to a buddy you are watching the game with: answer correctly, and you pay for the SGP; misfire, and he/she is on the hook.
Trivia Question: Who has more 100-yard playoff games: Tyreek Hill or Travis Kelce?
In a game that features plenty of big-time playmakers, it is possible that the “boring” plays are what decide this game.
I have my eyes on Isiah Pacheco in this spot. Rashee Rice has emerged as a consistent threat, and Travis Kelce is a Hall of Famer, making them the likely focal points of the banged-up Dolphins.
In the regular season, Miami ranked fourth in pressure rate and but also missed the sixth-most tackles. To me, that shouts dump-off passes.
Could Kansas City opt to go with a run-heavy approach a la Buffalo in its December dismantling of Dallas? It could happen, but we know Andy Reid wants his quarterback to hold the team’s fate in his hands, so I’m tempted to project plenty of dropbacks for Patrick Mahomes in this spot.
Assuming that is the case, Pacheco’s development as a receiving threat out of the backfield figures to jump off the screen.
He has caught at least three passes in all three of his games against top-10 pressure defenses this season — those little checkdown passes have connected in similar matchups, and if you’re telling me I get Pacheco’s running style in space with a 3+ reception projection, I’m thrilled with this leg of the SGP.
Mahomes’ aDOT dipped by 14.6% last postseason from the regular season, further proof that where Pacheco lives in the passing game could be featured in a significant way against Miami.
When it comes to projecting how this game will play out, Kansas City has given us the green light to be creative based on its track record, and the numbers point to more of the same in this postseason. Or at least in this matchup.
MORE: NFL Playoff Bracket
In nine games this season against above-average QBs (yes, that’s a subjective qualifier — I’m drawing the line at the Jordan Love/Jared Goff tier), the Chiefs have scored 34 first-quarter points and allowed 34 first-quarter points.
In all other quarters of those games, Kansas City has outscored the opposition by 51 points. We’ve seen it in the past, and 2023 has reinforced the idea that the Chiefs are a team that gets stronger as the game progresses. We can all speculate as to why this is, but it’s more than a flash in the pan at this point.
How does that trend match up with what Miami has done this season?
Over the Dolphins’ past seven games, they are +33 in first quarters and +12 in all other quarters. They’ve been the reverse version of the Chiefs — they’ve peaked early and faded late. They’ve entered games with strong schemes, but they have largely been unable to sustain their success after the scripted plays.
I’m wagering on all of these trends to continue. That is, the Chiefs to underperform early and shine late. Miami has seemingly lost key contributors on a weekly basis for more than a month now, injuries that figure to be evident as the Reid/Mahomes tandem digests information and plans for the second half.
- Trivia Answer: Travis Kelce has seven 100-yard playoff games in his career, well ahead of Tyreek Hill’s four.
- Same Game Parlay Pick: Chiefs ML, Dolphins (+0.5) in Q1, Isiah Pacheco over 21.5 receiving yards
- Odds: +490 (at DraftKings)
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