Assuming everything goes according to plan, the Las Vegas Raiders will be moving to their new home next season, which means that 2019 was their last in Oakland. That final season in California got off to a rocky start. Their star offseason acquisition, wide receiver Antonio Brown, engaged in a progressively more insane series of antics that resulted in his release by the team a mere two days before their opening game. His sudden and dramatic departure shaped Oakland’s season in many ways, some of which were easily anticipated, and some that were entirely unexpected.
On the one hand, his absence allowed tight end Darren Waller and rookie wide receiver Hunter Renfrow to emerge as potential stars. On the other, the play of quarterback Derek Carr only created more questions regarding the Raiders quarterback situation going into 2020. Now, with the draft less than two weeks away, Las Vegas must decide which players they want to build around, plotting a course for their future in a new city.
The emergence of Darren Waller
The Raiders passing offense was surprisingly successful for a team without its presumptive star. Carr had a solid season, throwing for more than 4,000 yards and 21 touchdowns. However, that production arose from some unexpected places. Their leading receiver last season, and best player according to PFN’s Offensive Share Metric (OSM), was tight end, Darren Waller.
2019 was Waller’s fifth season in the NFL, but struggles with substance abuse hampered his production and eventually led to a year-long suspension in 2017. That suspension led to his departure from the Baltimore Ravens a year later. However, if last season was any indication, he appears to have finally turned his career around, with 1,145 yards and three touchdowns. For some perspective, prior to 2019, he had 178 receiving yards in his entire career.
If Waller’s statistics weren’t impressive enough, he also received an OSM grade of 40.05, the sixth-highest grade received by any tight end last season. The implication of a grade that high is that Waller gained those statistics primarily as the result of his own ability, rather than by the play of his teammates or by the situations he found himself in. As you can see in the chart below, he was able to maintain that level of individual efficiency throughout almost the entire season.
That chart might appear somewhat imposing, but for our purposes, you only need to understand two things about it. First, that the black dots represent the number of OSM points scored by Waller per minute of play during a given week, and second, that the yellow line represents the league average at his position (tight ends and wide receivers are combined for our purposes). Based solely on that information, you can clearly see how consistently Waller was simply better than average at what he did.
The most notable factors involved in Waller’s high OSM grade were how often he caught the ball when it was thrown his way and what he was able to do with the ball in his hands after catching it. He caught 76.92% of his 117 targets, the sixth-highest percentage at his position.
His ability to gain yards after catching the ball was impressive as well, averaging 6.9 yards after the catch, fifth among qualifying tight ends. According to the NFL’s advanced statistics, that average was 1.3 yards greater than expected. That may not seem like much, but it once again ranked sixth at his position. These more specific metrics only serve to further illustrate what his OSM grades and conventional statistics already show -that Waller was an elite player in 2019.
The underrated brilliance of Hunter Renfrow
The other unlikely beneficiary from Brown’s absence was rookie fifth-rounder Hunter Renfrow. Neither particularly fast nor particularly strong, Renfrow proved himself to be a staggeringly efficient player later in the 2019 season. His overall statistics were reasonably impressive, with 605 yards four touchdowns, but it was in his advanced metrics that Renfrow truly shined. He received the highest OSM grade of any wide receiver in 2019, at 39. Early in the season, he received limited targets, but as you can see in his chart, he caught fire around Week 9, putting forth many stellar performances.
His success was not the result of excellence on one single metric; instead, it was the product of excellence in several different areas. He averaged 3.5 yards of separation on his targets, tied for the second-highest total among qualifying wide receivers. He also caught 69.01% of his passes, which ranked twelfth, and he averaged 6.8 yards after the catch, tied for the fifth-highest among wide receivers, a number that was 1.9 yards higher than expected according to the NFL’s advanced metric, which ranked sixth.
In short, Renfrow ranked highly in every area measured by the OSM. He wasn’t the best in any one area, and his conventional statistics won’t blow anyone away. However, his consistent ability to eke out small advantages where others couldn’t, made him one of the NFL’s most efficient wide receivers in 2019.
How the play of Waller and Renfrow affects the Raiders draft situation in 2020
As individually brilliant as Waller and Renfrow were, they bore most of the weight of Las Vegas’ receiving burden on their own. The other two wide receivers that qualified for OSM grades, Tyrell Williams and Zay Jones, did not score nearly as well, with grades of 33.58 (36th) and 31.86 (54th). Unlike their teammates, who elevated their play under challenging circumstances, Williams and Jones were average at best.
It is here that the loss of Brown can really be felt. Imagine a scenario in which he doesn’t force his exit from the team, and Waller and Renfrow both exhibit the same level of play we saw in 2019. The Raider’s passing game could have been spectacular to behold. Waller and Renfrow’s statistics would not look as impressive in this scenario, but their OSM grades would still reflect their high level of play.
In this respect, one part of Las Vegas’ draft strategy should be relatively clear. Adding a wide receiver to “replace” Brown (can you replace something that was never there?) seems like a necessity. Fortunately, this upcoming draft is full of talented wide receivers. It might be the strongest position in the draft overall, with multiple players slated for selection in the first round. Not taking advantage of such a prime opportunity to fill a massive gap in their roster would be a terrible waste.
Carr’s play in 2019 only further muddles the Raiders quarterback situation going into 2020
As clear as one of their first-round selections appears to be, the Raiders have a far more fascinating question at quarterback. The fate of Carr, the incumbent starter, has been the topic of much discussion during the offseason. As I already mentioned, he played reasonably well in 2019, but not nearly well enough to silence his many critics. His OSM grade of 20.82, which ranked 26th in the NFL, supports their skepticism.
Looking at the chart below, you can see that his grade is largely the result of some incredibly inconsistent play throughout the season. Unlike the charts of Waller and Renfrow, his OSM grades are all over the place, ranging from well above the average in Week 1 to a negative grade in Week 12. The overall result was a below-average performance, which in the modern NFL, isn’t nearly good enough, and creates a difficult situation for the Raiders at quarterback in 2020.
Carr’s advanced metrics only further illustrate how little control he had over his own statistics in 2019. His completion percentage was actually remarkably high, at 70.4%. However, that percentage was aided significantly by the fact that he only threw the ball an average of 6.3 yards downfield across all his attempts. That was the second-lowest average in the entire NFL last season.
As a result, the ball only traveled an average of 4.9 yards in the air on his completed passes. Considering the fact that he averaged 11.2 yards per completion, it should be abundantly clear that his receivers played a more significant role in producing his statistics than he did.
Examining the Raiders quarterback situation in 2020
In fairness, Carr doesn’t deserve all the blame here. We’ve already discussed the limited options he had at receiver last season. It’s difficult to expect much from a quarterback who lost his presumptive star wide receiver two days before the season started. When his best- receiving options were a tight end and a slot receiver, it isn’t all that surprising that he didn’t throw the ball downfield very often. In fact, Carr hasn’t had a genuine number one receiver since 2016, Amari Cooper’s last good season with the Raiders. It is entirely possible that if you provide him with a star at the position, say, Henry Ruggs III or Laviska Shenault Jr., that he would improve dramatically.
The alternative, of course, would be to give up on Carr and select his replacement in the upcoming NFL Draft. Las Vegas has two first-round picks in 2020, potentially putting them in the position to trade up for a Justin Herbert or Tua Tagovailoa. Alternatively, they could sit tight at the first of those two selections, 12th overall, which would likely allow them to select Jordan Love and then take a receiver with their other first-round pick.
Las Vegas has a difficult choice to make in a few weeks
In either of the above cases, Las Vegas could adopt a similar strategy to what the Kansas City Chiefs did with Alex Smith and Patrick Mahomes. Let Carr keep the job for a year and give the rookie time to learn the game and polish his skills. If the rookie shows promise, he can take over the starting role as soon as he is ready. On the other hand, if Carr shows substantial improvement once provided with superior talent, he could win the starting job permanently.
Of course, if Raiders leadership believes that this second scenario is likely, then they could refrain from selecting a quarterback early in the draft, and instead further build around Carr. This option would make the team surrounding the quarterback stronger overall, but would also place all of the Raiders hopes in Carr, who hasn’t necessarily proven he warrants that level of trust.
Whichever path they opt for, the choices the Raiders make in the upcoming draft will shape their quarterback situation in 2020 and beyond. Their offense already has a great deal of potential, and the right additions could be exactly what they need to propel them to greatness. We’ll see in a few weeks whether or not they make the correct decision.