NFL’s Black Monday is upon us. This is the day when some NFL owners will decide to move on from their head coach for a variety of reasons.
Most of the firings are done on Monday, but some decisions that are more complicated make take a few days. And while rare, some take place Sunday after the team’s final game of the season.
Why Are Changes Made on Black Monday?
Sure, it’s a bottom-line business and wins and losses are the most important thing to owners. But there are several other factors that impact these decisions, which we will take an inside look into below.
Here are the reasons league sources gave us for coaching changes:
– Overall record for entire tenure and coming up short of expectations from ownership or the general manager.
– Lack of development of the roster.
– Inability to reach the players or get them to “buy in.”
– Willingness to make staff changes.
– Deterioration of the relationship between owner or GM and head coach.
From talking to decision-makers over the years, a head coach typically is fired when expectations aren’t met for a given season or multiple seasons.
We’ll get started where some decisions were very clear for weeks and others where uncertainty existed as of late Sunday evening.
NFL Head Coaches That Have Not Met Expectations
Ron Rivera, Washington Commanders
While coaches from Ron Rivera’s staff did not know their fate as of Sunday evening, as expected, he was let go Monday morning.
A coaching agent who has done business with the team over the years expects Harris and his ownership group to make a “big splash” hire to replace Rivera.
Rivera, who had personnel control, had been largely responsible for putting together the roster since he was named head coach for the 2020 season by former owner Daniel Snyder.
What doomed Rivera was not only his overall record (26-40) but the lack of a clear future at the quarterback position.
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While second-year QB Sam Howell showed some promise this season, he wound up being benched only to get the starting job back after veteran QB Jacoby Brissett suffered a hamstring injury.
And Rivera, who comes from the defensive side of the ball, could not get the defense to play at a high enough level this season. He wound up trading away key assets such as ends Chase Young and Montez Sweat.
What’s not known is whether Harris will retain GM Martin Mayhew or executive vice president of football/player personnel Marty Hurney, who were hired by Rivera.
Bill Belichick, New England Patriots
This was seen as a pivotal year for Bill Belichick. He had posted losing records in two out of his previous three seasons, and there were questions coming into the season in terms of whether he could turn things around. This is despite being widely regarded as the best head coach in the history of the game.
After first-round QB Mac Jones had what many around the NFL thought was a very promising rookie season in 2021, he wound up regressing significantly in Year 2 and was benched this season.
Belichick, who has full personnel control, made the decision to have veteran defensive coach Matt Patricia call the plays on offense last season. That move, which was seen around the league as dubious at the time, turned out to be much worse than imagined.
Sources said many veteran players did not buy into the decision, and Belichick re-hired Bill O’Brien to run the offense this season. Chairman and CEO Robert Kraft explained the decision to re-hire O’Brien early last year via an interview with Fox Business.
“Well, everyone manages in a different way. I can only speak for myself. I try to hire the best people I can,” Kraft said. “I give them accountability, full authority to do as they please, hold them accountable. But if things aren’t going the way I’d like, we meet in private and have our discussions and make changes. It’s something we’ve done this year.
“I’m very happy that we were able to bring in a new offensive coordinator to help develop our young quarterback Mac Jones. I think bringing in Bill O’Brien has been a big plus for our franchise. And that was done in full cooperation with Coach Belichick. I’m very excited about our team for next year.”
Unfortunately, things did not go well on offense, and New England finished with a 4-13 record. The four wins were the fewest of any season in Belichick’s 29 as an NFL head coach.
While Belichick and Kraft have not had their end-of-the-season meeting yet, the feeling here is that there will be a parting of ways in the end because of the decline of the team in recent years and Belichick’s inability to get things back on a positive track.
Arthur Smith, Atlanta Falcons
When Arthur Smith took over as head coach in 2021, the team was in a total rebuild and had significant salary cap issues, some of which would carry over to Year 2.
Smith posted a record of 14-20 over his first two seasons, which some personnel sources around the NFL said was respectable considering the roster challenges.
MORE: NFL World Reacts to Arthur Smith Becoming First Victim of Black Monday
However, armed with a ton of salary cap space last March, a league source confirmed that GM Terry Fontenot spent roughly $82 million in free agency acquisitions (via signings and trades and not counting contract extensions of their own players).
The expectation was that the team would be better in Smith’s third year, but he finished with his third straight 7-10 record, leaving speculation about his job status.
Owner and chairman Arthur Blank, as a team source pointed out, is typically very patient and will usually give the head coach the benefit of the doubt. Nevertheless, the team announced Smith’s dismissal late Sunday evening — just hours after a blowout loss to the host New Orleans Saints.
“Decisions like this are never easy, and they never feel good,” said Blank. “We have profound respect for Coach Smith and appreciate all the hard work and dedication he has put into the Falcons over the last three years. He has been part of building a good culture in our football team, but the results on the field have not met our expectations.
“After significant thought and reflection, we have determined the best way forward for our team is new leadership in the head coaching position.”
Whether it was Smith’s inability to develop the QB position or some questionable use of offensive personnel, a team source added that a true concern was the lack of consistent development of their draft classes over his three seasons, which wasn’t lost on Blank.
Josh McDaniels, Las Vegas Raiders
Simply put, the expectation was that the Las Vegas Raiders would be a better team in McDaniels’ second year, but they were anything but that. That is why he was let go after just eight games this season.
From talking to a team source, while playoffs weren’t expected, the expectation was that based on the roster improvements in the offseason, the team would make a push up the standings and at least make things interesting.
However, that didn’t happen until interim head coach Antonio Pierce took over. Pierce finished the season with a very respectable record of 5-4.
Pierce, as we wrote recently in this space, has total buy-in from the players, and he’s expected to get a serious look from owner Mark Davis to become the full-time head coach.
Brandon Staley, Los Angeles Chargers
Talk about expectations not being met.
From talking to people close to the situation, the expectation for this team was not just another playoff appearance, but a deep run — neither of which happened.
Once it became abundantly clear that the Chargers’ season was not going to be anywhere close to what ownership expected, Staley was let go after a blowout loss in Week 15 to the Raiders.
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Staley did finish his career with the Chargers with a winning record during his first two seasons. However, he could not get the players to buy in in Year 3, and it was clear that a move had to be made.
From talking to coaches from other teams, this will be a very desirable job because they have QB Justin Herbert signed long term (through 2029). Whether a team has a franchise QB or not is the first thing a head coaching candidate will look for.
Frank Reich, Carolina Panthers
From talking to team sources, no one was expecting Carolina to make the playoffs in Frank Reich’s first season. They were just expecting improvement in several areas from the offensive side of the ball.
While the Panthers were optimistic that the offense would take a positive step in Year 1 based on what they saw out of training camp, Reich’s offensive scheme proved to be somewhat outdated, sources said.
Several of the free agent acquisitions did not work out at all, which is a big reason why owner David Tepper let Reich go after just 11 games.
Improvement But Uncertainty
Matt Eberflus, Chicago Bears
While Matt Eberflus finished his second season with just a 7-10 record and a combined 10-24 overall record over his first two seasons, there’s no question that the team showed marked improvement this season.
We mentioned previously in this space that he clearly still has the buy-in of the players. However, we also noted that sources believe president and CEO Kevin Warren, who will be heavily involved in all big football decisions, will eventually want his own guy. Whether Eberflus could be that guy was still in question.
It would be a small surprise if Eberflus wasn’t retained after the team won four of its final six games, but we should get more clarity this week from Warren this week when he’s supposed to talk with the local media and, before that, meet with Eberflus.
Coaching Situations To Watch
Mike Vrabel, Tennessee Titans
Mike Vrable is under contract at least for a few more seasons. Vrabel, who just completed his sixth season at the helm, is held in high regard for the way he gets his team to play hard every week.
From talking to other teams that have gone up against the Titans, they know they’re in for a battle despite the issues the team has with its roster.
MORE: Titans HC Mike Vrabel Opens Up on Season Struggles
It’s not exactly a secret in personnel circles that the Titans have one of the NFL’s worst rosters, which is why Vrabel, while carrying just a 13-21 record over the last two seasons, shouldn’t be on the hot seat.
However, keep in mind GM Ran Carthon and Vrabel had no prior working relationship prior to this season. So until owner controlling owner/co-chairman, board of directors Amy Adams Strunk decides how they will go forward in terms of improving the roster and how that will be done, nothing is for certain.
Rumors have circulated in coaching circles that Vrabel might want a change of scenery due to the challenges of dealing with losing over the last two seasons — the only two losing seasons of his career.
But based on a question from the local media recently on his future, he didn’t sound like someone who wanted out.
“Of course, I want to be here,” Vrabel responded last week during a media session when asked if he wanted to be with the team next season. “I want to be here as long as we can win and as long as we can do this thing. It’s been great. But it’s also been frustrating this year. Nobody wants to be where we’re at.”
Some around the NFL wonder if he wants to have more input on personnel or more control to help avoid another losing season, which is why this situation should be monitored going forward.
Doug Pederson, Jacksonville Jaguars
To be clear, I’m not suggesting that Doug Pederson is in danger of losing his job, but when you have a collapse such as the Jaguars had, there will be questions. And those questions will come from ownership, namely Shad Khan.
At the end of the 2020 season with the Philadelphia Eagles, Pederson met with chairman and CEO Jeffrey Lurie. The two men could not agree on how to go forward with his coaching staff, and Pederson was let go.
After Week 12 this season, the Jaguars held a two-game lead in the AFC South and had won seven out of their last eight games. It really seemed like they were a lock to win the division.
However, Jacksonville wound up losing five out of their final six games and inexplicably are out of the playoffs, something that was unthinkable to start the season.
Again, Pederson is thought to be safe, but how he proceeds with his staff will be something to watch.
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