The Kyle Pitts dynasty fantasy football discourse over the past couple of years hasn’t been for the faint of heart.
Pitts came into the NFL as one of the most hyped tight end prospects in recent memory and realized some of his potential in his rookie season by clearing 1,000 receiving yards. He was on the path to greatness, and those who invested were set to cash in, right?
While his volume was useful in his debut season, fantasy managers complained about his lack of touchdowns. We’re a tough group to please.
Since that encouraging introduction to the pros, Pitts’ stock has trended the wrong way, and he was universally benched by managers in the second half of last season.
Is it time to buy the dip on the Atlanta Falcons tight end as the team overhauls its quarterback and coaching situations?
Kyle Pitts’ Dynasty Outlook
We’re all well aware of the pedigree that Pitts came into the NFL with and how the now 23-year-old lived up to it in his rookie campaign by becoming the second rookie TE ever to reach 1,000 receiving yards (other: Mike Ditka).
This one-handed snag by Kyle Pitts was UNBELIEVABLE 🔥#DirtyBirds
pic.twitter.com/QkFAXwJKuR— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) October 22, 2023
His fantasy production, however, hasn’t been what we had hoped for recently. At a position where volume is difficult to come by, and thus, touchdowns are even more valuable, Pitts has underachieved.
Despite having 50 more catches on his NFL resume than draft-class companion Tommy Tremble has targets, it’s the former Notre Dame product who has more touchdowns on his professional ledger.
We know that tight end development can be non-linear. Kansas City Chiefs TE Travis Kelce was a third-round pick and has produced 65+ catch seasons from the second he stepped onto the field.
But there are just as many cases that follow the path of David Njoku, a first-round pick in 2017 who just this season recorded his first year with 60 catches, 750 yards, or five touchdown receptions.
There’s hope. The Falcons were, far and away, the most conservative offense in the league in terms of rush rate over expectation this season under head coach Arthur Smith, something that is almost certain to change under the new regime.
Pitts’ first three seasons look an awful lot like Evan Engram‘s final three with the New York Giants, a sign that QB play could be a culprit of the unspectacular production.
- Engram (2019-21): 153 catches, 250 targets, seven TDs
- Pitts (2021-23): 149 catches, 259 yards, six TDs
Engram, of course, has been with the Jacksonville Jaguars for the two seasons since and has piled up 187 catches on 241 targets and scored eight times. He’s the same player he was, but his quality of target and situation allowed him to earn and convert targets at a much higher rate.
Those 2022 Jaguars that brought in Engram were fresh off of a double-digit-loss season and distancing themselves from a first-time NFL coach that didn’t work out. Sound familiar?
Could Kirk Cousins be to Pitts what Trevor Lawrence was to Engram?
Pitts’ Dynasty Ranking
Where does Pitts land in the dynasty TE landscape going into the 2024 offseason? Here are Soppe’s latest rankings, featuring where Pitts lands in comparison to other top names at the position.
1) Sam LaPorta | DET
2) Trey McBride | ARI
3) George Kittle | SF
4) Brock Bowers | FA
5) Mark Andrews | BAL
6) Evan Engram | JAX
7) T.J. Hockenson | MIN
8) Travis Kelce | KC
9) Jake Ferguson | DAL
10) Kyle Pitts | ATL
11) Dalton Kincaid | BUF
12) David Njoku | CLE
13) Dalton Schultz | HOU
14) Dallas Goedert | PHI
15) Michael Mayer | LV
16) Isaiah Likely | BAL
17) Gerald Everett | CHI
18) Cole Kmet | CHI
19) Luke Musgrave | GB
20) Pat Freiermuth | PIT
Should You Trade Pitts in Dynasty?
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The ranking of Pitts and the TE position as a whole got much more difficult over the past calendar year. Entering last season, we had a clear-cut “big three” at the position, with a second tier that was littered with hope and a third tier that was as long as you wanted it to be.
Now, with the 2023 NFL regular season in the books, we have more information to work on. Each member of the preseason Big Three has a flaw (Kelce — old/decline, T.J. Hockenson/Mark Andrews — significant injuries), while we now think that we may have a golden age on our hands with the crop of young talent.
Detroit Lions TE Sam LaPorta, Dallas Cowboys TE Jake Ferguson, Arizona Cardinals TE Trey McBride, and Buffalo Bills TE Dalton Kincaid are ushering in the new era of tight ends. All have some stability under center and are in the process of changing how we think about the position.
In the past, it was a bonus to get production from your TE slot if you didn’t have a Tier 1 option. Now, you might be falling behind if you’re not getting consistent numbers from the position.
Georgia Bulldogs TE Brock Bowers (two years younger than Pitts) could very well enter that class, making the TE market as competitive as it’s been in years.
Pitts’ pedigree has proven unable to rise above significant limitations at the quarterback position. That said, this change at head coach opens him up to growth that he didn’t have access to under Smith, as does the acquisition of the competent Cousins.
That’s not to say that it will unequivocally happen, but the odds improved, and dynasty fantasy football is nothing if not a game of playing the odds.
Pitts remains an easy top-12 option at the position, and this offseason certainly should give his managers optimism about the future. But his current ranking ceiling is only so high given the combination of his body of work to this point and the influx of talent at the position.
MORE: Dynasty Fantasy Football Trade Value Chart
It’s a better time to trade for Pitts now than it was during the 2023 season, and if he is truly healthy, he could turn into a profitable piece for fantasy teams in all situations.
Understand that you will not be the only manager in your league with a rosy outlook for Pitts, given the changes that have occurred in his favor, but I’d very much take the temperature of the room and see where his value sits. His best football has yet to be played!
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