Even though the 2023 NFL regular season is almost over, that means that the dynasty trade talk is about to commence.
As fantasy football managers and their league mates discuss draft picks and package deals as rookie prospects are drooled over, is it time to consider trading certain RBs to get a potential haul?
Should dynasty managers be looking to move Bijan Robinson, Austin Ekeler, and Raheem Mostert?
Should You Trade Bijan Robinson in Dynasty?
You were probably ecstatic if you had the 1.01 in Dynasty drafts last season. On the table was a generational talent, Bijan Robinson from Texas. And then he got drafted by the Atlanta Falcons, where he looked poised to slide into the clear number one spot, with Tyler Allgeier there to back him up.
But not so fast, said head coach Arthur Smith. Instead of continuously feeding the most talented RB on the team, Smith was all over the place, varying Robinson’s snap percentage and carries, ending the year with close to a 50/50 split between him and Allgeier.
Through Week 17, Robinson is RB12 on the season, with 948 yards on the ground, 384 yards through the air, and seven total TDs.
Dynasty managers were frustrated. But is the frustration big enough to consider trading him away?
Robinson is not even 22 years old, and so much of his success hedges on Smith going forward. Even though the Falcons have not utterly collapsed this season, they have not been any more than average with Smith at the wheel.
They may limp into the playoffs, but anyone in that front office who understands how best to be successful in the NFL must know that playing your best players is the thing to do.
MORE: PFN’s FREE NFL Playoff Predictor
If Smith is gone after this season, Robinson can truly blossom into the dynasty hero we all envisioned him becoming. His value will only increase, and I do not want to be the manager that lets that get away.
Final Verdict: Hold
Should You Trade Austin Ekeler in Dynasty?
In Dynasty, you never want to be the one left holding the bag. It’s far better to get out a year too early on a player and get a haul for them in a trade than a year too late and lose tons of value.
If you traded Austin Ekeler at the end of last season, you might have timed that perfectly. Ekeler has had a rough 2023 and has yet to be successfully able to follow up on the previous two seasons, where he finished as the RB2 and then RB1.
Ekeler is RB29 on the season, and to be fair, his injury woes and the overall offensive issues in Los Angeles impacted his production. He missed three weeks early in the season after an incredible Week 1 and never seemed to have consistent production when he returned.
Ekeler is almost 29 years old, which is the age at which we often see RBs’ performances drop off a cliff. According to ESPN, among RBs who were rookies in 2000 and later, they experienced a 25.2% decline in PPR points per game and 37.0% in total PPR points scored from their age-28 to age-29 seasons.
Throw in the fact that the Chargers will probably be targeting an RB in the draft; Ekeler’s time in the sun might be eclipsing.
Unfortunately, the window to get a haul for Ekeler might be gone. If you are an Ekeler manager, if he plays in Week 18 and has a great game, I suggest approaching teams that look like they could be contenders and seeing if you can move him.
Final Verdict: Trade
Should You Trade Raheem Mostert in Dynasty?
Fantasy managers who had Raheem Mostert on their squad were probably expecting very little from him this season. Miami had drafted the talented rookie De’Von Achane, and it looked like the Dolphins backfield would be a committee approach. Little did they know just how valuable Mostert would be – heading into the season’s final week, he is RB2.
But Mostert is old for an RB. He is almost 32 years old, which is almost always the kiss of death for dynasty RBs. As mentioned about Austin Ekeler earlier, dynasty managers want to try to move older RBs before they lose their value, and if you are a Mostert owner and you can move him — do it.
This season has been a delightful outlier for an injury-prone player who has only ever played two full seasons in his entire career. Sometimes, the stars align, and they did just that for him this year. The chance that he will have another 1,000-yard rushing season in 2024 is slim, especially with Achane in the wings, chomping at the bit.
I see a world where they ramp down Mostert’s usage, and he becomes an RB2 or flex starter, but if he can get you a young stud and a draft pick, that is much more valuable.
Final Verdict: Trade
Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Setting DFS lineups? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer, Start/Sit Optimizer, and DFS Lineup Optimizer to help you make the right decision!