MIAMI GARDENS, Fla. — Big game alert! The eyes of the nation will be on the 11-5 Miami Dolphins and 10-6 Buffalo Bills here Sunday night.
The winner is the AFC East champion and the conference’s No. 2 seed.
The loser — best-case scenario — will need to win multiple road games just to reach the AFC Championship Game.
This is as good as it gets.
Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins Game Preview
For the Dolphins to win, they’ll need to overcome a slew of injuries, some seriously bad juju, and as one-sided a recent history as you can find.
The Bills — 2.5-point road favorites as of Friday — are one win away from their fourth straight AFC East title. They’ve owned the Dolphins in the last decade, winning 10 of their last 11 meetings and 13 of the last 17 since the start of the 2013 season.
Will that trend continue? Read on for PFN’s predictions, plus seven key stats courtesy of Inside Edge.
Seven Bills-Dolphins Stats From Inside Edge
- Stat: Bills running backs have gained 1,229 yards on 146 receptions (8.4 yards per catch) since the 2022 season — tied second best in the NFL. The Dolphins have allowed 8.2 ypc to RBs since the 2022 season — tied third worst in the NFL.
Analysis: Dolphins defensive coordinator Vic Fangio made waves this week by calling James Cook the best Bills back since Thurman Thomas. But he might be right. Cook does it all. His 429 receiving yards are seventh among NFL running backs.
- Stat: The Bills have 62 touchdown passes since the 2022 season — tied second most in the NFL. The Dolphins have allowed 52 passing TDs since the 2022 season — tied fourth most in the NFL.
Analysis: That total jumped by five in Week 17, when Lamar Jackson shredded the injured Dolphins defensive backfield in a 36-point rout. Josh Allen career game incoming?
- Stat: Dolphins RBs have averaged 2.3 yards after contact per carry this season — best in the NFL. The Bills have allowed 2.0 yards after contact per carry to RBs this season — third worst in the NFL.
Analysis: With Raheem Mostert impacted by an ankle injury, De’Von Achane stepped up in Week 17 and now has 744 rushing yards and seven touchdowns on just 93 carries. “Every offense I’ve been in for high school, college, it wasn’t just outside runs. Most of my big runs come from running in between the tackles,” Achane said this week.
- Stat: The Bills have allowed opponents to pressure their quarterback on 32.4% of pass attempts since Week 14 — third worst in the NFL. The Dolphins have pressured opposing QBs on 32.6% of passing plays since Week 14 — fourth best in the NFL.
Analysis: The Dolphins are down their top two pass rushers (Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb), but still have confidence they can get after the QB. If they cannot against this Bills line, it’s a bad sign.
- Stat: The Bills have scored 5.4 points per red-zone drive this season — best in the NFL. The Dolphins have allowed 5.3 points per red-zone drive this season — fifth worst in the NFL.
Analysis: Fangio can take solace in this: He’s not the only playoff-bound DC who struggles in this area. The Dolphins’ red-zone defense (67.4%) is in the bottom five. Also there? The Browns, Eagles, and Lions.
MORE: Miami Dolphins Depth Chart
- Stat: The Dolphins are averaging 5.9 yards per carry on first down this season — best in the NFL. The Bills have allowed 5.4 yards per carry on first down this season — worst in the NFL.
Analysis: With their defense a shell of its former self and Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill both dealing with ankle injuries, the Dolphins’ clearest path to victory Sunday is on the ground.
- Stat: The Dolphins’ average drive start is the 24.9-yard line since the 2022 season — fourth worst in the NFL. The Bills have allowed an average drive start position from the 24.9-yard line since the 2022 season — second best In the NFL.
Analysis: If there was ever a time for Braxton Berrios to break one, this is it. “We’ve been close on a couple,” ST coordinator Danny Crossman said. “… We’re a little bit late getting to a responsibility or a second leverage player or whatever it may be. But I’m really happy with where Braxton is and he’s done a nice job. We just got to get him a little more help.”
Bills vs. Dolphins Predictions
- Adam Beasley: Bills
- David Bearman: Dolphins
- Dalton Miller: Bills
- Jay Morrison: Dolphins
- Dallas Robinson: Bills
Want to predict the rest of the 2023 season with our FREE NFL Playoff Predictor? Looking for the most up-to-date NFL standings? What about a breakdown of team depth charts or the NFL schedule? Pro Football Network has you covered with that and more!
