With one week left in the season, it is a two-man race for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year between Houston Texans QB C.J. Stroud and Los Angeles Rams WR Puka Nacua. Even if the competition is down to two players, the current NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds indicate that Stroud is a massive favorite over Nacua to win the award.
With Nacua on pace to break numerous receiving records for a rookie and outperforming the previous two winners at the position in Cincinnati Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase and New York Jets WR Garrett Wilson, why is there such a large gap between him and Stroud in the betting market?
Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds: C.J. Stroud Is a Heavy Favorite
Unlike the NFL MVP, this is an award that isn’t exclusively given to quarterbacks, as the last two winners have been wide receivers, and three of the previous five players to win Offensive Rookie of the Year have been non-QBs.
Even with Nacua possibly breaking the rookie records for both receptions and receiving yards, there is a huge gap in Offensive Rookie of the Year odds between him and Stroud.
Currently, at PointsBet/Fanatics Sportsbook, Stroud is -1000 to win OROY, and Nacua is +400. The difference in their odds is even larger at DraftKings Sportsbook, where Stroud is -1200, and Nacua is +450.
Why Is There Such a Big Gap in Betting Odds Between Stroud and Puka Nacua?
While it makes sense that Stroud is the favorite to win OROY, as he has led the Texans to more wins than the previous two seasons combined and has them in the mix for a playoff spot, it’s surprising that he has such a large lead over Nacua in the betting market. PointsBet/Fanatics Sportsbook trader Ethan Useloff explained to Pro Football Network why Stroud is such a heavy favorite.
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“The OROY race is fascinating, as both Stroud and Nacua are having phenomenal seasons,” said Useloff. “Puka is just four catches and 29 yards away from breaking both the receptions and receiving yards records among rookies. However, Stroud’s rookie campaign is nothing short of magnificent, posting 21 passing TDs to just five INTs and over 3,800 passing yards.”
“In just 14 games, Stroud has thrown for the fifth-most passing yards by a rookie quarterback, and earlier this season, he became the first rookie in NFL history to throw for 300+ yards in four straight games. Not to mention, Stroud is one win away from leading a Texans team with very low preseason expectations into the playoffs,” Useloff continued.
“Although the Rams had similar expectations entering 2023, with an over/under of around six wins, the quarterback position has such a premium when it comes to voting. Looking back at 2016, [RB] Ezekiel Elliott and [QB] Dak Prescott both had remarkable rookie seasons for the Cowboys.
“Zeke led all running backs in rushing yards, with over 300 more yards than the next closest player, but Prescott won OROY, despite finishing just 19th in passing yards and 15th in passing TDs. It appears this season will follow a similar suit,” Useloff finished.
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