While the Baltimore Ravens have already secured a first-round bye, the three other teams competing in today’s NFL games are fighting to keep their playoff hopes alive.
With big implications on the AFC playoff race in both games, which sides, totals, and player props should you be targeting?
Let’s dive into our NFL Week 18 betting predictions and best bets for today’s games.
NFL Week 18 Predictions and Picks: Saturday Games
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Steelers vs. Ravens Predictions
- Spread
Steelers -3 - Moneyline
Steelers -165, Ravens +140 - Total
34.5
Blewis: While the Ravens have nothing to play for, I’m still expecting them to be competitive in this one. With how dominant they have been in the preseason in recent years, it’s clear that John Harbaugh takes these meaningless games seriously, and I wouldn’t expect anything less against a division rival fighting to get into the postseason.
Since Mason Rudolph has become the starting QB, the Steelers have won two games in a row and have scored a combined 64 points in those two games. They’re also coming off an upset win in Seattle, in which they had their best offensive performance of the season.
But it’s not crazy to say, in my opinion, that this Ravens defense, even with most of their starters’ rest, could be a more difficult matchup than their two previous opponents in the Bengals and Seahawks — the 24th and 25th best defenses by DVOA.
Additionally, in these Week 18 matchups, the more motivated side is always going to be overvalued on the point spread because the public is always going to hammer them. I’m not saying the Ravens are going to win necessarily, but that there is value in taking them and the points.
Pick: Ravens +3.5 (-118 at FanDuel)
Katz: When FanDuel opened their lines for Tyler Huntley’s passing yards, it was 10 yards higher than every other book. I couldn’t help but jump on that.
In four starts last season, Huntley’s highest passing yardage total was 138. He’s made three career starts against the Pittsburgh Steelers. In those games, he’s thrown for 141, 88, and 130 yards.
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The Baltimore Ravens are playing a glorified exhibition game. Huntley will be throwing to Nelson Agholor and Charlie Kolar instead of Zay Flowers, Odell Beckham Jr., and Isaiah Likely.
Plus, the Steelers are more vulnerable on the ground than through the air. Expect a run-heavy game plan, with not much needed from Huntley.
Pick: Tyler Huntley Under 171.5 Passing Yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Rolfe: I am going to go against the thought process of Mr. Blewis up above and buy into the nothing-to-play-for narrative. Sure, a lot of the players on the field for the Ravens are fighting for something in terms of more playing time or impressing ahead of the offseason, but a second-string Ravens is not as good as a first-string Steelers.
Back in Week 5, the Steelers beat the Ravens when they had a full complement available, and I just struggle to see how a Lamar Jackson-less Ravens scores enough points here to cover the spread. I back Pittsburgh to get to 20 points with Mason Rudolph at the helm, but equally, it terrifies me that I am buying into the Rudolph factor after being a doubter for the past two weeks.
My preference here is to take the points at -3 and take the -120 odds rather than getting that number around even by going for -3. I expect the Ravens to be competitive early before falling off into the second half, as they potentially remove more starting options as the game wears on. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh will be fighting hard to the bitter end.
Pick: Steelers -3 (-120 at ESPN BET)
Bearman: Betting on Week 18 in the NFL is challenging because not every team has anything to play for, and this matchup is a prime example. The Ravens, with the one-seed clinched, don’t want to put any of their star players at risk for injury, so they are resting their key players. However, they would also like to put an end to the Steelers’ season, which has everything to play for.
Despite their last two performances, this is still a poor Steelers offense, and considering the Ravens won’t be playing anyone, I’ll take the under.
Pick: Under 34.5 (-105 at ESPN BET)
Texans vs. Colts Predictions
- Spread
Texans -2.5 - Moneyline
Texans -130, Colts +110 - Total
47.5
Bearman: Unlike the first game on Saturday, this one is for everything. The winner is in; the loser is out. And if Jacksonville loses on Sunday, this is for the division.
I’ve been on the Colts’ Express all season, and with this one being at home, I’m staying on Indy. The Colts have been a surprise all season and finish it off with a playoff berth and maybe a division title.
Pick: Colts ML (+102 at DraftKings)
Blewis: The correct team is now favored in this matchup after the Colts opened a short favorite.
By point differential and DVOA, the Texans have been a far better team than the Colts this season. Indianapolis has been overachieving all season long, but I think that comes to an end, even at home, in this Week 18 matchup.
The only concern here in taking the Texans is they’re a much worse team on the road than at home with C.J. Stroud under center — 2-4 compared to 6-2 in Houston — but that’s not scaring me off enough from taking the better team.
Pick: Texans ML (-116 at FanDuel)
Soppe: Entering this season, we thought the Texans would look to develop Dameon Pierce after an encouraging first season to support rookie C.J. Stroud under center.
That’s the beauty of NFL betting – you aren’t married to preseason takes once the season starts. This offense has put their fate in the hands of Stroud and been rewarded in doing so. Pierce, on the other hand, has spent the bulk of this season running into the back of his linemen.
- Devin Singletary: 2.8 yards/carry before contact
- Dameon Pierce: 1.2 yards/carry before contact
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It’s been over a month since the last time Pierce had a carry gaining more than five yards, and with just six targets earned over his past nine games, he doesn’t offer the type of versatility that demands he be on the field in this must-win spot.
The Texans had 26 carries for 52 yards when these teams first met, and with Pierce getting a tiny piece of a small pie, I’m willing to fully fade him on the handful of looks he gets.
Pick: Dameon Pierce under 13.5 rushing yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Soppe: The Colts rank 26th in time of possession, making the volume of plays always a natural concern. When they do have the ball, their run game is pretty clearly their strength, with Jonathan Taylor leading their backfield.
Gardner Minshew is averaging fewer yards per pass than Easton Stick this season, and the deeper dive metrics support those struggles. There are 27 quarterbacks with at least 250 attempts for the season, and only three of them have an on-target rate shy of 65% (minimum 250 attempts) …
27. Kenny Pickett – 63.1%
26. Gardner Minshew – 63.1%
25. Josh Dobbs – 64.8%
With limited efficiency penciled in, Minshew would need strong volume to clear his projection, something that is simply not likely (no more than 20 completions in three straight).
Pick: Gardner Minshew under 239.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
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