The Jacksonville Jaguars‘ fantasy outlook revolves around QB Trevor Lawrence’s ability to win a division title, while the Tennessee Titans‘ preview evaluates the fantasy football value of RB Derrick Henry.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans
- Spread: Jaguars -5
- Total: 39.5
- Jaguars implied points: 22.3
- Titans implied points: 17.3
Quarterbacks
Trevor Lawrence: Whenever a coach uses words like “definitely improving” for a franchise player ahead of a game that would earn his team a home playoff game, I’m tempted to take the optimistic approach, which is what we have here.
I believe Lawrence sat out last week, with Jacksonville planning on having him this week to win the division.
Are the injuries ideal? Of course not, but we’re talking about the fourth-highest pass rate over expectation team over the past month that could also be getting Christian Kirk (groin) back.
Week 11 meeting: QB1
We know the fantasy upside that Lawrence possesses, and he has made it known with 70 rushing yards over his past two starts (six starts prior: 53 rushing yards). He has the potential to be a slate breaker, and I will have significant DFS exposure once we get official word that he is playing.
The only question I have: who to stack him with?
Running Backs
Travis Etienne Jr.: Fresh off of his first 100-yard rushing game in the United States this season and his fourth multi-score effort, Etienne looked like the early-season version of himself that had some of us ranking him as a top-five RB for the remainder of the year.
Week 11 meeting: RB26
Me. I mean me. I have no idea where you ranked him, but I thought he looked the part of a true league winner early on. That hasn’t panned out, though he could still prove to be a swing player if your league is still going on.
MORE: 2023 RB Fantasy Football Rankings
With multiple receptions in every single game this season and a reasonable floor that has seen him finish as a top-20 back in four of his past six games, you’re playing Etienne with the utmost confidence.
I’m more likely to lean on this passing game, given the matchup in DFS. But much like Jones in Green Bay, if you want to gain leverage on a popular pass game, Etienne is as good an option as any.
Derrick Henry: In Week 18, I value TD equity even more than normal because workloads are less of a certainty. There’s no denying that Henry carries that, which lands him as an RB2 for me this week — but one that comes with significant risk.
Week 11 meeting: RB38
In his past four games without a touchdown, Henry’s average positional finish is RB48, and that’s really not surprising.
The path to failure is far too clear to consider him a lineup lock (no more than two targets in seven of his past eight games), though the upside case is strong enough for me to start Henry in most circumstances.
Tyjae Spears: I don’t want to be overdramatic, but there might not be a player whose value this offseason I’ll be tracking closer than that of Spears.
I love the versatility I’ve seen (6+ targets in four of his past five games), and I want to see what his efficiency looks like when given more work (6.8 ypc during his career at Tulane). Assuming that Henry plays, you’re probably getting a little cute by flexing Spears, but it’s not crazy in a PPR setting.
If Henry were to sit or be reported to be managed — wheels up on Spears!
Wide Receivers
Calvin Ridley: There really is no way to label this season as anything but a disappointment for Ridley. He’s not a top-50 player in contested catch or route win rate this season, underlying metrics that warrant attention for not just this weekend but into 2024 as well.
Assuming that Lawrence is back, I’m comfortable rolling the dice on Ridley in this specific matchup (WR1 in Week 11 meeting), understanding that there is significant risk involved.
There are a few pass funnels in our game, and this will be Jacksonville’s third game against such a defense. His totals in the first two, you ask? Per the Week 18 Cheat Sheet:
- Thirteen receptions for 193 yards and four touchdowns
The fun part about those numbers is that Ridley’s 24% target share in those contests has more room to grow than it does realistically regress. The Titans allow the third-most red-zone trips per game (3.6), giving Ridley the type of scoring equity that makes him a good play to end the season.
Zay Jones and Christian Kirk: Both offer potential as the WR2, so keep tabs via the PFN Fantasy News Tracker. If one starts and the other sits, you can Flex the active player.
If the Jaguars have all three of their primary receivers active, Kirk (officially designated to return on Wednesday) will be ranked ahead of Jones for me and profile as a decent Flex play.
I view Ridley and Evan Engram as the two must-starts in this pass game, with the next best option a roster/matchup-dependent option given the health concerns (assuming Lawrence is active).
DeAndre Hopkins: The Titans opened the week being somewhat cryptic around the status of Will Levis, which plays into the analysis of Hopkins.
Ryan Tannehill was under center for the majority of snaps last week. Hopkins caught all seven of his targets and averaged 10.3 yards per grab.
In Weeks 1-16, Hopkins owned a 50.8% catch rate while averaging 15.4 yards per catch.
MORE: PFN’s FREE NFL Playoff Predictor
See where I’m going with this? If you’re an underdog, you want Levis under center. If you’re favored, Tannehill is your best bet at a nice floor. At this point in the week, I’m accounting for both outcomes and have Hopkins ranked as a low-end WR2.
I don’t think he’s a lineup lock if you’ve built a powerhouse team. The TD upside is capped, and the value of each individual target is a question mark.
Tight Ends
Evan Engram: Another week, another productive game from Engram. In my opinion, his consistency week-over-week has not been appreciated enough by fans in general (fantasy or otherwise).
Last week, Engram became the eighth tight end with a 100-catch season on his résumé, thanks to catching at least four passes in every game with a trio of double-digit catch performances under his belt.
Week 11 meeting: TE19
With an 80% catch rate this season, Engram should be considered a Tier 2 tight end for the season and a Tier 1 option this week. You’re locking him in if your league plays through Week 18 and feeling great about it.
I’ll have DFS exposure along with betting his overs this week — Engram is the lone consistent option in a passing game that is motivated and facing a pass funnel.
Chigoziem Okonkwo: The TE position is extremely tough to feel good about, putting us in a spot to bet on a profile. Okonkwo has caught 17 of 20 targets over his past four games, a level of efficiency that carries reasonable upside given his athletic profile.
He’s a top-15 play for me at the position despite not having reached 65 yards this season (under 35 yards in 10 games).
Trending Start/Sit Searches
Did you know that we have a Start/Sit Optimizer here at Pro Football Network? It’s completely free to use, and it allows you to enter up to six players to find the best option to plug into your starting lineup.
It also allows us to see the most popular trending searches. We’ve jotted some of them down here to help provide some clarity.
Should You Start Trevor Lawrence or Baker Mayfield?
Give me Lawrence here. Both signal-callers are playing in big spots, so give me the ceiling of Lawrence if all of his weapons are indeed back in the mix.
The matchup with the Titans for the Jags encourages volume through the air, and if you’re telling me I get Lawrence against Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield with the same number of dropbacks, I’m happy to gamble on Lawrence.
Should You Start Calvin Ridley or Chris Godwin?
This one hinges on health. If Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Trevor Lawrence all play, I’ll go with Ridley in a pass-funnel matchup that struggles to defend receivers down the field.
If Jones sits, I’d pivot to Tampa Bay Buccaneers WR Chris Godwin and his recent volume over the boom-or-bust nature of Ridley. At this moment, I have both ranked as viable Flex plays in all formats.
Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Setting DFS lineups? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer, Start/Sit Optimizer, and DFS Lineup Optimizer to help you make the right decision!
