After the NFL betting lines for Week 18 came out last Sunday night, we gave you our early NFL picks like we do every week.
Since then, there have been notable shifts in the NFL odds across the board, as we have gotten a better idea of which players are suiting up this week, with some teams already locked into their playoff seeding.
After reviewing these matchups and the playoff implications, here are my NFL Week 18 predictions and picks against the spread.
NFL Week 18 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread
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Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens Prediction
- Spread
Steelers -3.5 - Moneyline
Steelers -195, Ravens +165 - Total
36.5
The Ravens have nothing to play for; meanwhile, the Steelers still have a chance at a playoff berth, so that means taking Pittsburgh and the points, right? Wrong!
If there’s any team to back in a meaningless game, it’s the Ravens, considering how dominant they’ve been in the preseason under John Harbaugh. This is also one of the most intense rivalries in all of football, so I’m sure they would love to end the Steelers’ season as well.
While the Steelers have been playing better football with Mason Rudolph at quarterback the last couple of weeks, I like the sell-high opportunity here.
Pick: Ravens +3.5
Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts Prediction
- Spread
Texans -1 - Moneyline
Texans -120, Colts +100 - Total
47.5
The correct team is now favored in this matchup after the Colts opened a short favorite.
By point differential and DVOA, the Texans have been a far better team than the Colts this season. Indianapolis has been overachieving all season long, but I think that comes to an end, even at home, in this Week 18 matchup.
The only concern here in taking the Texans is they’re a much worse team on the road than at home with C.J. Stroud under center — 2-4 compared to 6-2 in Houston — but that’s not scaring me off enough from taking the better team.
Pick: Texans -1
New York Jets vs. New England Patriots Prediction
- Spread
Patriots -2.5 - Moneyline
Jets +120, Patriots -140 - Total
30.5
For a 4-12 team, the New England Patriots aren’t that bad. Of their 12 losses this season, only four have been by more than one score, and two of those games were in the first five weeks of the season.
With how bad both of these offenses are, conventional wisdom would say to take the under, but considering how turnover-prone these two quarterbacks are, that’s a scary proposition with such a low total.
MORE: PFN’s FREE NFL Playoff Predictor
Considering this might be Bill Belichick’s last chance to stick it to the Jets (and to hurt the Patriots’ draft position on the way out), I’ll take the Patriots laying just under a field goal.
Pick: Patriots -2.5
Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals Prediction
- Spread
Bengals -7 - Moneyline
Browns +250, Browns -300 - Total
37.5
Neither of these teams has anything to play for, which makes it so confusing why the Bengals are laying nearly a touchdown at home.
Jake Browning has come back down to Earth in recent weeks, but the Bengals’ defense can’t stop anybody, so I’m not interested in taking the under.
Not a strong play, but I lean toward the Browns getting six points.
Pick: Browns +7
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans Prediction
- Spread
Jaguars -5.5 - Moneyline
Jaguars -240, Titans +200 - Total
39.5
This is a significant game for the Jaguars and completely meaningless for the Titans, so the odds are certainly going to be inflated in Jacksonville’s favor. The Jaguars just need to win to win the AFC South, but that doesn’t necessarily mean you should be backing them as 5.5-point road favorites.
Outside of beating up on a terrible Panthers team last week, the Jaguars haven’t had a dominant win since Week 11, coincidentally also against the Titans. Despite the outcome of their last matchup, I think there’s value in a Tennessee team that has nothing to lose.
Pick: Titans +5.5
Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints Prediction
- Spread
Saints -3 - Moneyline
Falcons +145, Saints -170 - Total
42.5
The Saints are one of the least trustworthy teams as a favorite this season — just 3-8-1 ATS and 6-6 SU.
Both teams are technically still in the playoff race too, although they’re each long shots, as the Buccaneers just need to beat the 2-14 Panthers.
I don’t think the Saints are capable of blowing out the Falcons here, so I’m going to parlay Atlanta’s alternate line with the Buccaneers moneyline.
Pick: Falcons +8.5/Buccaneers ML (-102)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Carolina Panthers Prediction
- Spread
Buccaneers -5.5 - Moneyline
Buccaneers -250, Panthers +210 - Total
37.5
I gave my pick above for this game in a 2-leg parlay, and while I’ve been fading the teams that have more to play for, thinking the line is inflated, I can’t in good conscience back the Panthers here.
The Panthers’ point-blank is a disaster and fooled a lot of us into thinking their offense found something after scoring 30 points against the Packers, as they followed that up with a shutout loss to the Jaguars.
Pick: Falcons +8.5/Buccaneers ML (-102)
Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions Prediction
- Spread
Lions -3 - Moneyline
Vikings +140, Browns -165 - Total
45.5
As of this writing, the Vikings haven’t announced their starting QB yet, but we can assume it will be Nick Mullens.
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The Lions are virtually locked into their seeding in playoffs. Meanwhile, the Vikings are still fighting to get in, but their chances are very slim. I don’t expect a Dan Campbell-led team to take their foot off the gas, though, especially after how last week’s game ended.
Pick: Lions -3
Denver Broncos vs. Las Vegas Raiders Prediction
- Spread
Raiders -3 - Moneyline
Broncos +135, Raiders -155 - Total
38.5
Since Antonio Pierce has taken over as interim head coach, the Raiders have only allowed 21 or more points once at home — once to the Chiefs and the other to the Chargers when garbage time started early in the second quarter.
While the Raiders have been the most improved defense of the season, along with the Bears, the Broncos aren’t far behind, and considering the quarterback matchup in this one as well, I like the under here.
Pick: Under 38.5
Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Commanders Prediction
- Spread
Cowboys -13 - Moneyline
Cowboys -900, Commanders +600 - Total
45.5
The Cowboys just need to win to win the NFC East and secure the two seed in the NFC, so this line appears to be inflated. Considering they might pull the starters in the second half if/when they get out to a huge lead, I’m going to take their team total under — especially when this is an offense that performs much worse on the road — even though it’s the Commanders.
Pick: Cowboys under 29.5
Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers Prediction
- Spread
Packers -3 - Moneyline
Bears +140, Packers -165 - Total
44.5
It would be poetic justice if the Bears ended the Packers’ season, and that is certainly in play here. But my lean is towards the under, as this Bears’ defense has been exceptional since trading for Montez Sweat, and after scoring 33 points two weeks in a row, this seems like a good sell-high of the Packers’ offense.
Pick: Under 44.5
Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals Prediction
- Spread
Seahawks -2.5 - Moneyline
Seahawks -140, Cardinals +120 - Total
47.5
While the Cardinals’ offense was really impressive in their upset win over the Eagles last week, this defense is still one of the worst units in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are coming off a 30-23 loss to the Mason Rudolph-led Steelers, who had their best offensive performance of the season against them.
For a game in the 2023 NFL season, this is a high total, but I like the over in this matchup, especially as it’s still below a key number of 48.
Pick: Over 47.5
Los Angeles Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers Prediction
- Spread
49ers -3.5 - Moneyline
Rams +155, 49ers -185 - Total
42.5
This is a pretty meaningless game, as the 49ers have already secured a first-round bye, and the Rams have already clinched a playoff spot. I don’t want to reach for an angle in this game, so I’ll be passing on this one.
Pick: Pass
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers Prediction
- Spread
Chargers -3.5 - Moneyline
Chiefs +165, Chargers -195 - Total
35.5
This is another meaningless game, as the Chiefs are locked into the 2-seed in the AFC, and the Chargers have already been eliminated from the playoffs. Another pass.
Pick: Pass
Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Giants Prediction
- Spread
Eagles -5 - Moneyline
Eagles -230, Giants +195 - Total
41.5
After losing four of their last five games and a five-game losing streak ATS, nobody is going to want to back the Eagles as 5-point road favorites.
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Part of me wants to be contrarian here, and it would be very on-brand for the 2023 Eagles if they finally had their get-right game when it was far too late — considering they’re pretty much guaranteed to be the fifth seed in the NFC — but I just can’t get there. This team appears to be broken, and they might play this game safely and look ahead to their first-round playoff matchup.
Pick: Giants +5
Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins Prediction
- Spread
Bills -3 - Moneyline
Bills -165, Dolphins +140 - Total
49.5
The 2023 Miami Dolphins are the 2022 New York Mets — have a division lead for close to 99% of the season only to see it slip away at the very end. That’s the scenario I’m envisioning here, as this Dolphins team is extremely banged up on defense.
If you like the Bills here, then you should feel confident in taking them giving three points, considering only two of their 10 wins this season have been by a field goal or less.
Pick: Bills -3
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