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    Tampa Bay Buccaneers Playoff Scenarios and Chances: Bucs Overcome Late Hiccup To Win Division

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    What are the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' playoff scenarios and chances for Week 18, and can they hold on to win the NFC South after a late hiccup?

    The Tampa Bay Buccaneers remain in the driver’s seat of the NFC South ahead of their regular-season finale despite last week’s setback. Rattling off four straight wins put Tampa Bay in a position where it could afford a loss, even if it came in somewhat surprising fashion when they fell 23-13 to the New Orleans Saints. Still, the Buccaneers are in firm control of their destiny and well-positioned to make the playoffs.

    Let’s examine Tampa Bay’s playoff scenarios entering the final week of the regular season.

    Buccaneers Playoff Scenarios | Week 18 Update

    Note that this article was originally published on Jan. 7 before Sunday’s games began. The results of this week’s games are below and will continue to be updated throughout the day.

    The Buccaneers have clinched the NFC South and the No. 4 seed in the NFC. They will host the Eagles on Wild Card Weekend.

    1 p.m. ET Games Update
    Buccaneers (9-8) defeated Panthers (2-15)
    Saints (9-8) defeated Falcons (7-10)

    4 p.m. ET Games Update
    Packers (9-8) defeated Bears (7-10)
    Cowboys (12-5) defeated Commanders (4-13)
    Giants (6-11) defeated Eagles (11-6)

    Keep reading below to see the playoff scenarios for the Bucs entering Week 18. And head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture.

    What Are the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ Playoff Chances and Scenarios in Week 18?

    The Buccaneers enter Week 18 with a high probability of qualifying for the playoffs leading into their regular season finale against the Carolina Panthers. Tampa Bay has a roughly 68% chance of making it to the postseason, based on simulations of PFN’s Playoff Predictor.

    Much of that high probability comes from the Bucs’ straightforward route to punching their ticket for the playoffs. Beat a Panthers team that has been the league’s worst squad for much of the season, and Tampa Bay will have its fourth straight playoff appearance after missing out in each of the previous 12 seasons.

    It’s really that simple for the Bucs, which have been playing with a playoff mindset for several weeks now after falling to 4-7 following back-to-back losses to the San Francisco 49ers and Indianapolis Colts.

    Barring a win over Carolina to clinch the NFC South title, Tampa Bay does have two other significantly less likely paths to making the postseason. The Bucs would also win the division if they tie with the Panthers, alongside New Orleans losing to or tying with the Atlanta Falcons.

    Alternatively, a Tampa Bay tie, the Seattle Seahawks losing to the Arizona Cardinals, and the Green Bay Packers either losing to or tying with the Chicago Bears would also get the Bucs in as a Wild Card team.

    In the event Tampa Bay does win the NFC South, as it is currently favored to do, it is assured of finishing as the conference’s No. 4 seed. The Buccaneers would face the NFC’s fifth seed in the first round of the playoffs, which will be either the Dallas Cowboys or Philadelphia Eagles. Dallas is currently favored to win the division, making Philadelphia the more likely matchup, but either is possible.

    MORE: Tampa Bay Buccaneers Depth Chart

    Alternatively, Tampa Bay could finish seventh in the conference if its unlikely Wild Card scenario were to play out. It would likely face either the Cowboys or Eagles in that scenario as well, given the NFC East winner is all but assured of finishing No. 2 in the conference, though there is a longshot possibility of the Detroit Lions jumping up to finish second.

    Want to predict the rest of the 2023 season with our FREE NFL Playoff Predictor? Looking for the most up-to-date NFL standings? What about a breakdown of team depth charts or the NFL schedule? Pro Football Network has you covered with that and more! 

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