The New Orleans Saints have gone through their fair share of ups and downs this season, but entering Week 18, they are decently well-positioned to make the playoffs. Three wins in their last four games, including a crucial 23-13 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week, have kept New Orleans in striking distance of the postseason. A chaotic race for the NFC West title will all come down to the final week.
Let’s examine the Saints’ playoff scenarios heading into their regular season finale.
Saints Playoff Chances | Week 18 Update
Note that this article was originally published on Jan. 7 before Sunday’s games began. The results of this week’s games are below and will continue to be updated throughout the day.
Despite their win over the Falcons, the Saints have been eliminated from playoff contention thanks to the Green Bay Packers’ win over the Bears on Sunday.
1 p.m. ET Games Update
Buccaneers (9-8) defeated Panthers (2-15)
Saints (9-8) defeated Falcons (7-10)
Lions (12-5) defeated Vikings (7-10)
4 p.m. ET Games Update
Packers (9-8) defeated Bears (7-10)
Rams (10-7) defeated 49ers (12-5)
Seahawks (9-8) defeated Cardinals (4-13)
Keep reading below to see the playoff scenarios for the Saints entering Week 18. And head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture.
What Are the New Orleans Saints’ Playoff Chances and Scenarios in Week 18?
New Orleans heads into Week 18 with a few clear scenarios for clinching a spot in the playoffs, including two that are more realistic than the others. All in all, data gathered from simulations of PFN’s Playoff Predictor put the Saints’ odds of making the postseason at roughly 25%, given the help they need to make it possible.
The most straightforward scenario for New Orleans to get into the playoffs is by winning the NFC South.
Two scenarios exist for it to do so, the first being much more attainable as it involves the Saints defeating the Atlanta Falcons and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers losing to or tying with the Carolina Panthers.
The second way for New Orleans to win the division is by tying with the Falcons and Tampa Bay losing to Carolina.
Much of New Orleans’ playoff probability comes from winning the division with a roughly 17% chance to qualify as the NFC’s fourth seed, based on simulations of PFN’s Playoff Predictor.
Barring a division title, the Saints could also find their way into the playoffs via a Wild Card berth. New Orleans’ most likely path to doing so involves beating the Atlanta, along with the Seattle Seahawks losing to or tying with the Arizona Cardinals and the Green Bay Packers losing to or tying with the Chicago Bears.
New Orleans could also clinch a Wild Card spot with a tie against the Falcons, along with Seattle and Green Bay losses. All in all, it has a roughly 8% chance of qualifying for the postseason by Wild Card.
Those potential outcomes make Atlanta’s potential playoff seeds either fourth or seventh, depending on whether it qualifies as the NFC South champion or as a Wild Card team.
Making the playoffs as the NFC’s No. 4 seed, which is currently the Falcons’ most likely seed, would pit them against either the Dallas Cowboys or Philadelphia Eagles in Round 1 of the postseason. Whichever of the Cowboys and Eagles does not win the division will finish as the conference’s fifth seed.
MORE: New Orleans Saints Depth Chart
Conversely, the NFC East champion will almost certainly finish as the conference’s No. 2 seed and would also be New Orleans’ likely first-round opponent if it were to finish as the seventh seed. There is also a slight chance of the Detroit Lions finishing second in the conference, though it remains a distinctly remote possibility.
Want to predict the rest of the 2023 season with our FREE NFL Playoff Predictor? Looking for the most up-to-date NFL standings? What about a breakdown of team depth charts or the NFL schedule? Pro Football Network has you covered with that and more!