The Minnesota Vikings are still mathematically alive in the NFL playoff race heading into Week 18, a reality that seemed decidedly unlikely after Kirk Cousins’ season-ending injury. Minnesota has not done much to help itself in recent weeks, with three straight losses and defeats in five of its last six games overall. Still, the franchise has a chance.
Let’s examine the Vikings’ playoff chances and scenarios in the final week.
Vikings Playoff Chances | Week 18 Update
Note that this article was originally published on Jan. 7 before Sunday’s games began. The results of this week’s games are below and will continue to be updated throughout the day.
After the early slate in Week 18, the Vikings have been eliminated from playoff contention.
1 p.m. ET Games Update
Buccaneers (9-8) defeated Panthers (2-15)
Saints (9-8) defeated Falcons (7-10)
Lions (12-5) defeated Vikings (7-10)
4 p.m. ET Games Update
Packers (9-8) defeated Bears (7-10)
Rams (10-7) defeated 49ers (12-5)
Seahawks (9-8) defeated Cardinals (4-13)
Keep reading below to see the playoff scenarios for the Vikings entering Week 18. And head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture.
What Are the Minnesota Vikings’ Playoff Chances and Scenarios in Week 18?
Minnesota is out of the race for the NFC North title after the Detroit Lions clinched their first division title in 30 years on Christmas Eve, but the Vikings still have a shot at making the postseason via a Wild Card spot despite currently sitting 10th in the NFC.
It’s not the likeliest of scenarios, according to data from PFN’s Playoff Predictor, which gives Minnesota just a 1% chance of earning a postseason spot.
The Vikings’ odds are the lowest of any NFC team still in the running and well below their division rival Green Bay Packers’ 52% chance of making it.
Those long odds owe to Minnesota’s convoluted pair of clinching scenarios. The first three results are true of both of them — the Vikings need a win over the Lions, the Packers to lose to the Chicago Bears, and the Seattle Seahawks losing to the Arizona Cardinals.
On top of that, Minnesota also needs either the New Orleans Saints to lose to the Atlanta Falcons or the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to lose to the Carolina Panthers.
Some of those results are unlikely on their own, let alone in combination with each other, but they still provide a theoretical path for the Vikings to get into the postseason.
MORE: Minnesota Vikings Depth Chart
Should Minnesota find its way into the playoffs, it could only qualify as the NFC’s seventh seed and would thus face a wild card-round playoff game against whichever team finishes second in the conference.
That opponent would most likely be either the Dallas Cowboys or the Philadelphia Eagles, though the Lions still also have a small chance of jumping up to the No. 2 seed.
The Cowboys currently have the best odds of grabbing the NFC’s top seed, but a slip-up against the Washington Commanders would open the door for others to overtake them.
Minnesota still needs plenty to go right just into the playoffs, though, regardless of how the top of the conference shakes out.
Want to predict the rest of the 2023 season with our FREE NFL Playoff Predictor? Looking for the most up-to-date NFL standings? What about a breakdown of team depth charts or the NFL schedule? Pro Football Network has you covered with that and more!
