The Green Bay Packers head into Week 18 in firm control of their playoff fate after rattling off crucial wins each of the last two weeks, including a narrow 33-30 triumph over the Carolina Panthers. Green Bay went through some struggles early in the season as it started 3-6 before rounding into form over the last half of the campaign and overcoming some tough losses.
Let’s examine the Packers’ playoff scenarios heading into the final week of the regular season.
Packers Playoff Chances | Week 18 Update
Note that this article was originally published on Jan. 7 before Sunday’s games began. The results of this week’s games are below and will continue to be updated throughout the day.
Following their win over the Bears, the Packers have clinched a playoff berth. They will be the No. 7 seed thanks to the Rams’ win over San Francisco.
1 p.m. ET Games Update
Buccaneers (9-8) defeated Panthers (2-15)
Saints (9-8) defeated Falcons (7-10)
Lions (12-5) defeated Vikings (7-10)
4 p.m. ET Games Update
Packers (9-8) defeated Bears (7-10)
Cowboys (12-5) defeated Commanders (4-13)
Giants (6-11) defeated Eagles (11-6)
Rams (10-7) defeated 49ers (12-5)
Keep reading below to see the playoff scenarios for the Packers entering Week 18. And head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture.
What Are the Green Bay Packers’ Playoff Chances and Scenarios in Week 18?
Green Bay is now one win from officially punching its ticket to the postseason but also has some other avenues to make it in, even without a victory. Those realities give the Packers a roughly 52% chance of making the playoffs based on simulations of the PFN Playoff Predictor, better odds than several of its fellow hopefuls in the conference.
The most straightforward scenario for Green Bay to clinch a spot in the postseason is simple — beat the division rival Chicago Bears at Lambeau Field. Failing to do that, though, would significantly lengthen the Packers’ odds of making the playoffs.
Tying with Chicago might not be the end of the world for the Packers either if combined with favorable results from the Seattle Seahawks and either the Tampa Bay Buccaneers or New Orleans Saints. Those scenarios could include a loss or tie by Seattle and the same from New Orleans, losses by the Seahawks and Tampa Bay, or a tie by Seattle and a loss or tie from the Bucs.
Alternatively, even a loss might not end Green Bay’s season if other results are favorable.
A loss or tie by the Minnesota Vikings combined with a loss by Seattle and one other loss by either the Buccaneers or Saints would get the Packers into the postseason regardless of the result of their game.
Green Bay’s likeliest finish if it does make the playoffs is as the No. 6 seed, which was the case in 33% of simulations of the PFN Playoff Predictor. In that case, the Packers would almost certainly face their division rival Detroit Lions in the Wild Card round of the postseason, a rubber match between two teams that split their regular season series.
MORE: Green Bay Packers Depth Chart
A matchup with the Philadelphia Eagles would also be theoretically possible in that case, but it involves a longshot scenario that would require the Eagles to tie with the New York Giants, among other results.
Green Bay finishing as the seventh seed, which occurred in 19% of the PFN Playoff Predictor’s simulations, would likely pit it against the Dallas Cowboys as they are currently in the driver’s seat to finish second in the conference. Philadelphia could also leapfrog Dallas for the No. 2 seed with a win and a Cowboys loss.
Want to predict the rest of the 2023 season with our FREE NFL Playoff Predictor? Looking for the most up-to-date NFL standings? What about a breakdown of team depth charts or the NFL schedule? Pro Football Network has you covered with that and more!