Battles for the NFL‘s top conference seeds — and a resulting first-round playoff bye — are typically tight heading into the final month of the regular season. This year’s races are no different.
With two weeks left in the 2023 campaign, the AFC’s top seed is still up for grabs. The Baltimore Ravens and Miami Dolphins are fighting for home-field advantage and will face each other in Week 17. Meanwhile, the Cleveland Browns still have a path to the No. 1 seed, but it’s incredibly narrow.
AFC No. 1 Seed Scenarios | Week 17 Update
Note that this article was originally published on Dec. 31 before Sunday’s game began. The results of this week’s games are below and will continue to be updated throughout the weekend.
After the Sunday 1 p.m. ET slate in Week 17, the Ravens have officially clinched the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Baltimore secured a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs by defeating the Dolphins on Sunday.
Sunday 1 p.m. ET Update
Ravens (13-3) defeated Dolphins (11-5)
Be sure to check out our NFL Playoff Predictor to predict the rest of Week 17 and see how the playoff field shakes out.
Ravens, Dolphins Squaring Off for No. 1 Seed in Week 17
While the Kansas City Chiefs and Jacksonville Jaguars appeared to be contenders for the top seed in the AFC several weeks ago, both clubs have since fallen out of the mix, leaving the Ravens and Dolphins atop the conference heap.
As luck would have it (thanks, NFL schedule-makers), the penultimate week of the 2023 NFL season will feature a matchup between Baltimore and Miami.
The Ravens, winners of five straight, have the AFC’s best record at 12-3 and enjoy a one-game lead over the 11-4 Dolphins heading into Week 17. As such, Baltimore can clinch the No. 1 seed by beating Miami on Sunday.
In that scenario, the Ravens would have a two-game lead with one week remaining in the regular season. There would be no mathematical way for the Dolphins to make up enough ground before the playoffs begin.
But what if Miami wins? Baltimore is just a three-point home favorite, suggesting the Week 17 tilt should be close.
If the Dolphins manage the slight upset, they will overtake the Ravens for the No. 1 seed entering the final week of the regular season. At that point, Miami could clinch the top seed by defeating the Buffalo Bills in Week 18. The Dolphins would finish with 13 wins and hold a head-to-head tiebreaker against Baltimore, giving them a first-round bye.
To recap, Baltimore will land the No. 1 seed in the AFC by beating the Dolphins on Sunday. If the Ravens lose, they’ll need to take down the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 18 while hoping Miami falls to Buffalo.
Meanwhile, the Dolphins must defeat Baltimore in Week 17 to maintain their shot at the top seed in the conference. If Miami wins out, it will grab the No. 1 seed. If Tua Tagovailoa and Co. beat the Ravens on Sunday but lose to the Bills in Week 18, they’ll need to hope Baltimore gets upset by Pittsburgh to close the season.
Can the Browns Still Land the No. 1 Seed?
Entering Week 17, just one other team resides in the AFC No. 1 seed race: the 11-5 Browns, who punched their ticket to the playoffs with a Thursday night win over the New York Jets but have room to ascend in the conference standings.
Cleveland first needs to win the AFC North before worrying about the top seed. To do that, Joe Flacco’s club has to win its Week 18 game against the Cincinnati Bengals while watching the Ravens lose out.
The Browns and Ravens would finish with identical 12-5 records and have split their season series. However, Cleveland would win the division based on their superior mark inside the AFC North (4-2 vs. 3-3).
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The Browns need the Dolphins to beat the Ravens in Week 17, but they also need Miami to lose to Buffalo in Week 18. Cleveland and Miami would both finish 12-5 in that scenario.
Because the Browns and Dolphins did not play each other this season, the identity of the No. 1 seed would be determined by conference record. Cleveland would be 9-3 in the AFC vs. Miami’s 8-4, giving the Browns the top seed and a first-round playoff bye.
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