The Seattle Seahawks have given their playoff chances a huge boost with two straight wins in tight games. That has left the Seahawks’ playoff scenarios in their own hands, with the potential to lock up a spot in the postseason as early as this week if things break their way. However, if they revert back to the form that saw them lose four straight, the Seahawks could still be missing out on the postseason.
Let’s examine the Seahawks’ current playoff scenarios and chances heading into Week 17 of the 2023 NFL season.
Seahawks Playoff Chances | Week 17 Update
Note that this article was originally published on Dec. 31 before Sunday’s games began. The results of this week’s games are below and will continue to be updated throughout the day.
Following the completion of Week 17, the Seahawks are now the No. 8 seed in the NFC.
1 p.m. ET Games Update
Bears (7-9) defeated Falcons (7-9)
Rams (9-7) defeated Giants (5-11)
Saints (8-8) defeated Buccaneers (8-8)
4 p.m. ET Games Update
Steelers (9-7) defeated Seahawks (8-8)
Sunday Night Football Update
Packers (8-8) defeated Vikings (7-9)
Keep reading below to see the playoff scenarios for the Seahawks entering Week 17. And head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture.
What Are the Seattle Seahawks’ Playoff Scenarios and Chances Entering Week 17?
As we head into Week 17 of the season, the PFN Playoff Predictor gives the Seahawks around an 85% chance of making the postseason. The predictor sees the Seahawks as the sixth seed on around 65% of occasions and as the seventh seed on around 20% of simulations.
The Seahawks are sitting at 8-7, tied in overall record with the Los Angeles Rams, but behind them based on the “head-to-head” record NFL playoff tiebreaker.
That is a tiebreaker the Seahawks naturally cannot reverse, so they would ideally want to be at least half a game ahead of the Rams when the season ends. With the Rams still having the San Francisco 49ers to face, that is an extremely viable scenario.
Seattle is currently one game ahead of the Minnesota Vikings, Atlanta Falcons, Green Bay Packers, and New Orleans Saints. Neither of the NFC South teams can get past the Seahawks when we start diving into tiebreakers, so getting to nine wins would be enough.
Therefore, the Seahawks know that a win this week, combined with a tie between the Packers and Vikings, will be enough to clinch a playoff spot.
The problem for Seattle will come if they go 1-1, the Rams go 1-1, and the Vikings or Packers go 2-0. That would see the Rams always beat out the Seahawks, as divisional scenarios always resolve first. Then the Vikings would have an 8-4 conference record, and the Seahawks can only get to 7-5 at best.
MORE: Seattle Seahawks Depth Chart
If the Packers and Seahawks are tied, the Packers would likely have the advantage either way. If Seattle loses to the Cardinals, the Packers would have a superior conference record.
Lose to the Steelers, and the Packers likely have a superior Strength of Victory, the tiebreaker would come down to if they are tied on conference record and record against common opponents.
Seattle may be in the prime position right now, but the winner of the Vikings and Packers game will be able to beat them to the post if the Seahawks stumble in either of their last two games. Those two losses to the Rams back in Week 1 and Week 11 could come back to really haunt the Seahawks.
Not only does it ensure they are behind the Rams in terms of the divisional standings in the event of any tie, but it has also limited them to a maximum of six or seven conference wins rather than the potential for eight or nine.
However, with the Steelers and Cardinals left to face, the Seahawks will have a little bit of confidence that they can get to 10 wins and make all of this tiebreaker talk irrelevant.
Want to predict the rest of the 2023 season with our FREE NFL Playoff Predictor? Looking for the most up-to-date NFL standings? What about a breakdown of team depth charts or the NFL schedule? Pro Football Network has you covered with that and more!
