The NFC South seems delicately poised, with three teams all within a game of each other with two weeks to play. However, the current NFC South playoff scenarios have the division well and truly in the grasp of one team, which even has a margin for error this week. Then again, you cannot ask for much more than a division to enter Week 17 with three teams all having a chance to win.
Let’s take a look at the scenarios for all three teams to clinch the division this season.
NFC South Playoff Scenarios | Week 17 Update
Note that this article was originally published on Dec. 31 before Sunday’s games began. The results of this week’s games are below and will continue to be updated throughout the day.
After Week 17, the Buccaneers remain the NFC South leaders and the No. 4 seed in the NFC. The Saints are the No. 9 seed, while the Falcons are No. 12.
1 p.m. ET Games Update
Saints (8-8) defeated Buccaneers (8-8)
Bears (7-9) defeated Falcons (7-9)
Rams (9-7) defeated Giants (5-11)
4 p.m. ET Games Update
Steelers (9-7) defeated Seahawks (8-8)
Sunday Night Update
Packers (8-8) defeated Vikings (7-9)
Keep reading below to see the playoff scenarios for the NFC South teams entering Week 17. And head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture.
NFC South Playoff Scenarios for the Buccaneers, Saints, and Falcons Entering Week 17
As things stand entering Week 17, the Buccaneers (8-7) have a one-game lead over both the Atlanta Falcons and the New Orleans Saints (both 7-8). The Buccaneers also have a slight lead in division play with a 3-1 record in divisional games, compared to 3-2 and 2-2 records for the Falcons and Saints, respectively.
Adding to all of this is the fact that whoever the Buccaneers wind up in a playoff tiebreaker scenario with, they would have the advantage in terms of common games. Regardless of whether it is a two-team or three-team tie on overall record, the Buccaneers would still take the division based on the “record against common opponents” tiebreaker.
What all of this means is that the Buccaneers only need a win in either Week 17 or Week 18 to take the title. At 9-8, neither the Falcons nor the Saints would be able to surpass them in any tiebreakers, so the Buccaneers would take the division. If the Buccaneers’ lose both games, they are vulnerable in a number of ways.
As for the Falcons, they ideally need to win out and hope the Buccaneers get, at most, half a game out of their next two weeks. That would be enough for the Falcons to take the division on nine wins ahead of the Saints and Buccaneers. The other scenario for the Falcons to win the division is a little bit of a tightrope.
If Atlanta loses in Week 17 and the Saints defeat the Buccaneers, Atlanta still has a chance. A win for the Falcons in Week 18 with a loss for the Buccaneers would leave all three teams tied at 8-9.
However, thanks to the Falcons’ victory over the Saints in Week 12, they would have the superior head-to-head of 3-1 compared to 2-2 for the Buccaneers and 1-3 for the Saints.
MORE: AFC North Playoff Scenarios and Standings
Things are much simpler for the Saints. They need to win out and have the Buccaneers lose in Week 18. That would leave the Saints as the only NFC South team with nine wins. Ignoring the complications of ties for now, that is the Saints’ only path to the division crown this year.
Entering Week 17, the PFN Playoff Predictor gives the Buccaneers a 93% chance of winning the division. Meanwhile, the Falcons and Saints split that other seven percent, with a slight edge to the Saints, but not by much.
Can Any NFC South Team Claim a Wild Card Spot?
In reality, all three teams could end up with an NFC Wild Card spot if things go right. The Buccaneers are actually in the weirdest position there because they would have to lose both games to miss out on the division, and 8-9 would need a lot to go right to make the playoffs.
The Buccaneers would need the Seahawks to get to nine wins, while the Rams, Vikings, and Packers all go 0-2. Tampa Bay would then need to flip the “Strength of Victory” tiebreaker with the Rams by a couple of games. Unfortunately, that would be completely out of their control.
As for the Falcons and Saints, they each need to win out and hope for some help. Entering the week with a 4-6 conference record could play against them as a number of teams could have superior records within the conference in a tie on eight or nine wins. Throw in various head-to-head matchups, and you have a thoroughly confused situation for those teams depending on how many wins they and others can get to.
Want to predict the rest of the 2023 season with our FREE NFL Playoff Predictor? Looking for the most up-to-date NFL standings? What about a breakdown of team depth charts or the NFL schedule? Pro Football Network has you covered with that and more!