The Indianapolis Colts‘ playoff chances have taken a hit with two losses in their last three games. Despite sitting seventh in the current AFC playoff picture, the Colts’ playoff scenarios are not as simple as just winning out and making the postseason. Whether it is the AFC South or a Wild Card spot, the Colts need some help to make the postseason the year.
Indianapolis Colts Playoff Chances | Week 17 Update
Note that this article was originally published on Dec. 31 at 9 a.m. before Sunday’s games began. The results of this week’s games are below and will continue to be updated throughout the day.
After Week 17, the Colts are the No. 7 seed in the AFC.
1 p.m. ET Games Update
Colts (9-7) defeated Raiders (7-9)
Texans (9-7) defeated Titans (5-11)
Jaguars (9-7) defeated Panthers (2-14)
Bills (10-6) defeated Patriots (4-12)
4 p.m. ET Games Update
Steelers (9-7) defeated Seahawks (8-8)
Broncos (8-8) defeated Chargers (5-11)
Chiefs (10-6) defeated Bengals (8-8)
Keep reading below to see the playoff scenarios for the Colts entering Week 17. And head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture.
What Are the Indianapolis Colts’ Playoff Scenarios and Chances Entering Week 17?
Despite currently occupying the seventh seed, the Colts are in a vulnerable position, with the PFN Playoff Predictor giving them just under a 40% chance of making the playoffs this season. The Colts are currently sitting at 8-7 alongside three other teams and a game behind the Buffalo Bills at 9-6.
Entering Week 17, the NFL playoff tiebreakers fall in the Colts’ favor, but not entirely because of them. The current four-way tie involves two AFC South teams and two AFC North teams. In that scenario, divisional ties are resolved first, meaning the tiebreaker for the seventh seed is between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Colts.
In that scenario, the Colts have the head-to-head advantage over the Steelers thanks to a Week 15 30-13 victory. However, the Colts lost 14-34 to the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 14, who are also 8-7. Right now, the Steelers are preventing the Bengals from being in the tiebreaker with the Colts.
If the Bengals and Colts go 2-0 down the stretch and the Steelers drop a game, the Bengals would jump above the Colts in the AFC standings. That tiebreaker situation is why the Colts do not control their own destiny. They either need the Steelers to also finish 2-0 or the Bengals to lose one of their final two games.
The Colts do not have any playoff elimination scenarios this week, so they can still make the playoffs with one more loss. However, they would need a lot to go their way in terms of the Steelers, Houston Texans, and Bengals, as well as needing the Las Vegas Raiders to lose in Week 18 (assuming the Colts lose to the Raiders in Week 17).
How Can the Colts Win the AFC South?
Of the three teams tied at 8-7 in the AFC South title race, the Colts are the middle team in terms of potential scenarios to win the division. The Jacksonville Jaguars control the division thanks to their victories over the Colts in Week 1 and Week 6 while also having a tiebreaker advantage over the Texans.
What that means is the Colts need to better the combined results of the Jaguars over the next two weeks and at least match the Texans. If the Colts and Texans end up tied after Week 18, the Colts have an unassailable tiebreaker at the conference record level that would see them finish above the Texans.
MORE: Indianapolis Colts Depth Chart
The potential scenarios for the Colts to clinch the division are:
- Indianapolis wins out, and Jacksonville fails to win one game
- Indianapolis wins in Week 18, and Jacksonville goes 0-2
- Indianapolis wins in Week 17, Houston loses in Week 17, and Jacksonville goes 0-2
- Indianapolis wins in Week 17, ties in Week 18, and Jacksonville loses one game
There are further scenarios involving ties across the three teams, but given we have not seen a tie this year, it seems unlikely we will see multiple with two weeks left in the season.
Want to predict the rest of the 2023 season with our FREE NFL Playoff Predictor? Looking for the most up-to-date NFL standings? What about a breakdown of team depth charts or the NFL schedule? Pro Football Network has you covered with that and more!
