Kyle Soppe’s Week 17 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: Outlooks for Ty Chandler, De’Von Achane, and Bijan Robinson

If you’re sticking with me entering Week 17, that means you’ve advanced to play meaningful games, which is an impressive accomplishment.

That said, you didn’t come this far just to bow out, did you? We can worry about New Year’s resolutions when this week is in the books. From now until lineup lock, you owe it to yourself to finish what you started. To put your best foot forward and give yourself a chance at fantasy football glory that no one can ever take away from you.

Dramatic? Maybe, but that doesn’t make it inaccurate.

How do you do that? Out-working your opponent is a good place to start, and that work starts right here, right now.

Below are my thoughts on every player that figures to matter in this critical week. If you have Flex questions, don’t hesitate to hit me up on Twitter @KyleSoppePFN. I like helping you win more than you like winning, I promise!

While the first game of Week 17 should be competitive like New York’s game last week was, the low total tells you everything you need to know about the expected flow of this game. In his last three games in which under 36 points have been scored, Hall has amassed just 180 total yards and hasn’t found the end zone.

New York Jets at Cleveland Browns

• Spread: Browns -7.5
• Total: 36
• Jets implied points: 14.3
• Browns implied points: 21.8

Quarterbacks

Joe Flacco: Tua Tagovailoa is very much a part of the MVP discussion with two weeks to go in the regular season, and Flacco has more top-10 finishes then him since late October.

That tidbit in the year 2023 would be amazing without any context, but how about the fact Flacco didn’t make his debut this season until December?

MORE: Fantasy FAAB Picks Week 17 — Joe Flacco Among Top Suggestions

This Browns offense has evolved into a top-ve pass rate above expectation unit under Mr. Elite. That level of volume (42+ pass attempts in every game) puts fantasy success on the radar, even against one of the best defenses in the sport.

There are streaming options I prefer to Flacco (namely Derek Carr), but once you get outside of the top eight at the position for me this week, we’re talking about a massive tier that could easily be justified plugging in this week. Flacco currently sits at QB17 for me this week.

Running Backs

Breece Hall: I’m not sure that multiple rushing scores on top of a 34.8% target share is what we thought was possible for Hall, but he certainly made the most of a perfect matchup against easily the worst-scoring defense in the league (Commanders).

Of course, this breakout came on the heels of an 18-yard dud against the Dolphins — such is life as a member of an offense with QB issues.

I have Hall ranked as a strong RB2 this week, but that’s more a statement on the position than it is unfeathered confidence in New York’s lead back. The range of outcomes is great, but Hall’s upside is high enough to gamble on in what I think will be a tight game throughout.

Jerome Ford: He got into the end zone last week in Houston. That’s great, but nothing under the surface is trending in a positive direction for Ford, which is why he’s on the fringes of my Flex radar despite having a lead role.

In this Wacco Flacco system, the RB position isn’t worth a ton. In December, Ford is averaging 10.6 carries per game (23 carries for 45 yards over the past two weeks). And while we’ve seen flashes of usage in the passing game, the fact that it’s possible that Flacco finishes as fantasy’s QB1 and Ford has negative receiving yards is a problem.

I’d rather ride running backs like Zamir White and Clyde Edwards-Helaire (assuming their starters), who have bankable volume with my season on the line than hope for Ford to be involved in the passing game.

Kareem Hunt: I really don’t care if it’s by design or a result of a nagging groin injury, Hunt simply isn’t involved enough to matter. He has totaled 66 yards over the past three weeks and has realistically relied on scoring all season long.

That’s not to say he hasn’t provided value at points this season (career-high eight rushing scores), but we’re in the business of projecting forward to Week 17 against an elite defense. The odds are not in your favor when it comes to Hunt’s role and matchup.

Wide Receivers

Garrett Wilson: For the eighth time this season, Wilson earned double-digit targets. In theory, that’s what we want, but this offense is just so prohibitive.

I think we can all agree that Wilson is a special talent. Players like him shouldn’t have just two games this season with a 35-yard catch and more fumbles lost (two) than touchdowns scored (one) since mid-September.

We aren’t in the business of ranking talent. We’re in the business of getting statistics — and Wilson is a tough sell.

The volume lands him inside my top 30 and, thus, in the Flex conversation for most managers. But the empty-calorie nature of Wilson’s opportunities keeps him out of my WR2 tier that is rounded out by young receivers like Jayden Reed and Zay Flowers, who have access to more valuable targets, even on fewer opportunities.

Amari Cooper: Nothing to see here, just a franchise record 265 yards (11 catches, two touchdowns) in a game film that should be sent to Canton. OK, maybe that’s a bit strong, but it seemed like every Cooper catch had something special to it: ball placement, field awareness, athleticism, concentration, etc.

The tape was as impressive as the production and maybe more so. What does it all mean? It means that you have an important matchup this week, and that you’re going to feel obligated to start the star receiver with confidence.

Cooper’s fantasy ranking has increased every week since Flacco took over: 48, 31, 13, 1. Plus, the 37 targets he has earned over the past three weeks are encouraging when projecting forward.

No, I don’t think the franchise record for receiving yards is in danger of being broken in consecutive weeks. Still, an average of the two weeks prior (15.1 half-PPR points) is certainly in play, despite the tough matchup.

Over the past two weeks, the opposing WR1 vs. the Jets (Terry McLaurin and Jaylen Waddle sans Tyreek Hill) has averaged 13.7 yards per target. By no means am I calling this a strong matchup, but it’s not prohibitive enough for me to drop Cooper outside of my top 20.

Tight Ends

Tyler Conklin: I’m sorry. I have to have a sizable lead on the rest of the internet when it comes to positive words written about Conklin.

To me, he’s what a TE streamer should be. Conklin has caught at least four passes in nine games this season, offering the type of PPR floor that isn’t easy to find at this position.

Without a touchdown on his résumé this season, the limitations of a ceiling are obvious. But if the goal of your mission is to not lose your position because of a goose egg at the TE position, Conklin checks that box.

You’re not adding him to win you your week as an underdog. You’re adding him to not lose you your week as a favorite — a niche role that might not apply to most, but certainly has an appeal to some.

David Njoku: In Cleveland these days, we have a high-volume, highly concentrated passing game. That’s cat-nip to fantasy managers.

Cooper has obviously been the driving force behind Flacco’s success through the air, but with 31 targets and four touchdowns over the past three weeks, Njoku’s impact on fantasy matchups has been equally impressive when adjusted for the position he plays.

MORE: Fantasy TE Start/Sit Week 17 — How Should You Handle Dalton Kincaid, David Njoku, and Gerald Everett?

The Jets own the third-lowest opponent aDOT this season, so I’m very much willing to bet on Njoku’s involvement lasting another week and propelling his fantasy managers to a good spot in their Super Bowl!

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys

• Spread: Cowboys -6.5
• Total: 53.5
• Lions implied points: 23.5
• Cowboys implied points: 30

Quarterbacks

Jared Goff: For the first time since last October, Goff has completed over 70% of his passes in consecutive games, and go figure, both games were played indoors.

Outdoors since 2022: 2.8% TD rate
Indoors since 2022: 6.3% TD rate

This game will be another weatherproof one for the Lions, and while the Cowboys’ defense is better than the Broncos or Vikings that Goff has been efficient against over the past two weeks, their aggression is very much a dual-edged sword.

My concern is that the Cowboys miss fewer tackles than any other team, thus limiting the impact of those quick strikes to Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jahmyr Gibbs. That said, the expanding role of Jameson Williams gives Goff access to enough upside to rank as a QB1 for me in this less-than-advantageous matchup.

Dak Prescott: With multiple TD passes in eight of nine games and 25+ rushing yards in consecutive games within a single season for the first time in nearly 1,900 days, the floor case for Prescott is what you’re latching onto.

We know the ceiling production is there when all is clicking on this strong Dallas offense, and this matchup is unlikely to suppress that for four quarters (27.1 points per game allowed since the bye).

I have Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen as my Tier 1 QBs this week, both as heavy home favorites. Yet, Prescott is the next signal-caller in my ranks, leading the second tier that includes current MVP favorite Lamar Jackson.

Running Backs

Jahmyr Gibbs: The rookie took a little bit of time to carve out a fantasy-friendly role, but he has gotten there at the perfect time and is showing zero signs of slowing down.

2022 Christian McCaffrey: 1,880 yards, 85 catches, and 10 TDs
Gibbs’ 17-game pace since Week 7: 1,774 yards, 70 catches, and 19 TDs

Gibbs has been a top-six producer at the position in six of those nine games and is about as valuable as any dynasty running back.

I don’t care what you think about David Montgomery’s role around the goal line of this tough matchup — Gibbs is locked and loaded into your lineup with the expectation that he can make a splash in your fantasy Super Bowl at the level he has for over two months now.

David Montgomery: Gibbs’ emergence has’t really come at Montgomery’s expense. The veteran RB scored again last week, giving him 11 in 12 games this season. He again received 19 touches, a number he has hit on the nose in three of four games this month.

The upside isn’t what it was in the first month of the season, but Montgomery’s floor remains encouraging in an offense we trust and a defense that the Lions would rather stay off the field. He has finished each of the past five weeks as an RB2, and I see no reason why this week would be any different against the 21st-ranked red-zone defense.

Tony Pollard: Has one play ever summed up a fantasy season like Pollard finding a way to not score on that dump-off pass last week in Miami?

We marveled at his explosive nature entering this season, and yet, it’s been more than a month since we saw him pick up more than 16 yards on a touch. The Lions rank fourth in terms of preventing yards per carry this season, so banking on an increase in efficiency when you need it most isn’t exactly the percentage play.

That said, we’re talking about the fifth-worst red-zone defense in the NFL, and Pollard is nothing if not used in close. How effective he is on those carries could swing your league winner this season. Will he be the GOAT or the goat with all of the chips in the middle of the table?

I tend to weigh scoring opportunities more heavily for players than efficiency and efficiency more than opportunities when it comes to defenses. That process still has me ranking Pollard as a lineup lock this week. However, I can’t deny the worries that come with doing so.

Rico Dowdle: It was cute a month ago when we all tried to breathe life into Dowdle as a Flex-worthy player with Pollard struggling, but those conversations are dead.

Dowdle has touched the ball just seven times over the past two weeks and doesn’t deserve to be anywhere near starting lineups. At this point, he’s simply Pollard insurance, and with no signs of a lingering issue for the starter, Dowdle isn’t a viable commodity in Week 17.

Wide Receivers

Amon-Ra St. Brown: With a touchdown in consecutive games for the third time this season and a score in five of his past seven, St. Brown has earned a label as one of the game’s most consistent producers.

He has 10 games this season with at least nine targets and is a true threat to swing your matchup for the better every single time he takes the field, regardless of the matchup.

CeeDee Lamb: It’s not crazy to put Lamb in the WR1 overall conversation for next season, as the 24-year-old already has a career year with two games left to go and has stability under center.

With at least 10 targets in four straight and 9+ looks in nine straight, Lamb stands to pick apart a Lions defense that is running on fumes these days. He’s my top-ranked receiver for Week 17 and profiles as a potential league winner for those involved in a Super Bowl matchup.

Brandin Cooks: He bailed you out by scoring on one of his two targets, but you’re walking a very thin line by starting Cooks these days.

The veteran receiver falls just outside of my top 30 this week despite an exploitable matchup due to his lack of target volume. Since earning 10 targets against the Giants in Week 10, Cooks is averaging just 4.3 targets per game, making him a player that needs to score to make him worth your while.

He’s been able to fulfill that promise plenty over the past 2.5 months, but understand that you’re betting against career trends if you’re betting on his scoring equity to sustain.

2023: TD on 9.2% of targets
2022: TD on 3.2% of targets
2021: TD on 4.5% of targets
2020: TD on 5.0% of targets
2019: TD on 2.8% of targets

Tight Ends

Sam LaPorta: The rookie tight end gave us nothing but stability through October, but his production of late has been about as sporadic as it gets.

Week 16 at MIN: 3 catches for 18 yards
Week 15 vs. DEN: 5 catches for 56 yards and 3 TDs
Week 14 at CHI: 2 catches for 23 yards
Week 13 at NO: 9 catches for 140 yards and a TD
Week 12 vs. GB: 5 catches for 47 yards and a TD
Week 11 vs. CHI: 3 catches for 18 yards

There’s nothing actionable to do here. The ceiling LaPorta has shown us is more than enough at the TE position to start with blind confidence. That said, him putting you behind the eight ball is much more in the range of outcomes now than it was earlier in the year.

Due to the lack of TE depth, there’s nothing you can do here other than hope that his George Kittle-esque production patterns pan out this week and you land on the right side of variance.

Jake Ferguson: The production for the second-year TE hasn’t been overwhelming of late, but you’re betting on the 32 targets Ferguson has seen over the past four weeks and plugging him in without much of a second thought.

He may not possess the slate-breaking upside of a player like LaPorta, but the fact that the volume is consistent and that four of his five scores this season have come at home should provide some confidence.

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills

• Spread: Bills -12
• Total: 40.5
• Patriots implied points: 19.3
• Bills implied points: 31.3

Quarterbacks

Josh Allen: While Allen has yet to throw multiple touchdown passes in a game this month, his fantasy production has been as safe as any thanks to six rushing scores over his past four games (since late September, he has as many games with multiple rushing scores as he does games without one).

In his first meeting with the Patriots this season, Allen threw 41 passes — or five more than he has thrown, in total, over the past two weeks. His lack of volume through the air in recent weeks is not something I’m overly concerned about, though given the spread in this game, it’s tough to deny that another sub-30 pass-attempt game is certainly possible.

Is Allen a perfect quarterback? No. Is he someone I’m comfortable in rolling out there during my fantasy Super Bowl? Without a doubt. In fact, I’m in that expect spot in a home league — let’s go #BillsMafia!

Running Backs

Rhamondre Stevenson: New England’s top back has missed three straight games (ankle), and the likelihood of his 2023 season being over increases by the day.

The 25-year-old is under contract for another season, giving the Patriots very little motivation to extend him down the stretch of this lost season.

MORE: PFN’s FREE NFL Playoff Predictor

Stevenson’s stock will be one to watch intently this offseason. On one hand, he’s one year removed from a season in which he averaged 5.0 ypc and caught 69 passes. On the other, the limitations of this roster tanked Stevenson’s efficiency (4.0 ypc) and saw his target count take a step backward.

If New England’s offense can provide us with a reason for optimism (be it in the final few weeks this season or with offseason moves), the shine being off of Stevenson’s 2022 breakout could make him a nice value come draft season.

Ezekiel Elliott: The veteran hasn’t had a 15-yard carry since October, and yet, he’s producing at such a level that I’m locking him in as a strong RB2 and not really thinking twice about it.

Zeke has seen 30 targets over the past four weeks, a nice complement to his featured role on the ground. Not one of his rush attempts is likely to jump off the screen at you, but in an offense void of playmakers in a spot where they’re going to have to score to keep up, it’s impossible to overlook the sheer volume that Elliott projects for.

These Patriots games are CYE games. Cover Your Eyes. They aren’t a work of art, but given how they function these days, New England’s offense hinges on the chain-moving stylings of Elliott, and that should be comforting for fantasy managers.

James Cook: In what looked like a perfect matchup on paper, Cook disappointed in Week 16 against the Chargers (20 touches, 5.0 fantasy points), but that doesn’t undo the good he had done in the four games prior (average finish: RB8).

In fact, that’s the exact spot he finished in the RB ranks back in Week 7 against these Patriots. New England’s defense is pretty clearly the strength of their roster, but that doesn’t mean they can slow Cook.

I have Buffalo’s budding star ranked as an RB1 and have no real concerns about him this week in the final week of most fantasy leagues.

Wide Receivers

DeMario Douglas: New England’s only semi-reliable option in the pass game has caught at least five passes in five of six games. And with a 30-yard grab in two of his past four, there’s a little more per-target upside in this profile than meets the eye.

Of course, Douglas hasn’t scored this season, and that caps his upside. But if you’re in a multi-Flex PPR league with a strong roster, I could see adding the 8-12-point expectation that the rookie offers and feeling good about your star players dictating how your matchup ultimately finishes.

Stefon Diggs: If you’re still fighting for a fantasy title with Diggs on your roster, more power to you!

Buffalo’s star receiver has made a play here and there over the past month and a half, but he hasn’t shown us the ceiling or floor that he showcased through the first month.

If you asked me in September if I thought I’d have Diggs ranked closer to WR1 or closer to WR30, I would have laughed in your face. Now, it’s not a question, and the latter is pretty clearly the right answer.

MORE: What Happened to Stefon Diggs?

I’m still plugging Diggs in as a low-end option, but it’s mainly because the Patriots own the best per-carry run defense in the league, and I think Buffalo could be one-dimensional in this spot.

If that’s the case, I’ll take my chances on a WR who has seen double-digit targets eight times this season. But there’s no denying that the one-time elite option is not to be considered anything close to that as we near the end of the season.

Gabe Davis: Not all heroes wear capes, and not all numbers pan out. Davis was a non-cape-wearing, statistical-trend supporting hero on Saturday night in Los Angeles by picking apart the Chargers to the tune of 130 yards and a score.

Of course, the only thing worse than missing the boat on a good Davis week is chasing it into the ground the following week, so be careful (six yards on five targets in the first meeting with the Patriots this season).

That said, the Patriots’ pressure rate dipped below the arbitrary 20% threshold I used last week to drive the Davis love. If you were forced into a spot where you had to play him, you probably advanced, and there are numbers to support the idea that consecutive strong weeks aren’t out of the question.

Davis is a top-40 receiver for me that I could see playing over Drake London and Jakobi Meyers. Heck, based on the matchup and recent trends, taking a shot on Davis over Terry McLaurin isn’t the craziest idea if you feel you’re swimming upstream in your specific matchup!

Tight Ends

Hunter Henry: A knee injury cost Henry Week 16 and likely resulted in him being cut loose by fantasy managers experiencing a roster crunch where rostering multiple TEs isn’t optimal.

Don’t sweat it.

While he has scored three times in his past two games, Henry hasn’t caught more than three passes in seven of his past nine games and plays for an offense that rarely threatens paydirt.

There are at least three widely available TE streamers, and I list them all within the T.J. Hockenson write-up at the very bottom of this article. To me, they all offer a low floor that is similar to Henry’s, but with a more clear path to reasonable success than New England’s banged-up option.

Dalton Kincaid: I’m holding onto Kincaid, but it’s more based on how I see Buffalo’s offense functioning this week than it is any remaining confidence in him as a difference-maker.

Kincaid has turned four targets into just seven yards over the past two weeks and hasn’t reached 50 yards or scored in well over a month. I stand by his role as the second-most consistent target earner in this offense, but with Dawson Knox back in the mix and Cook’s development, Kincaid’s slice of the pie is getting smaller.

The pie itself has been shrinking of late as well.

He’s not bulletproof, but Kincaid’s pretty clearly ahead of the options on your wire, so you’re rolling with him and trusting the pass-oriented Bills to get their uber-talented rookie some more looks.

Atlanta Falcons at Chicago Bears

• Spread: Bears -3
• Total: 38
• Falcons implied points: 17.5
• Bears implied points: 20.5

Quarterbacks

Justin Fields: Remember those back-to-back four-touchdown pass games in October for Fields? Well, since then, he has four touchdown passes in total.

However, the production on the ground (over 45 rush yards in six of his past seven with a rush TD in two of his past three) has allowed Fields to remain a viable fantasy option.

I tend to prefer Fields against blitz-heavy defenses, as it creates a need for his creativity and allows his unique athleticism to shine. But that’s not what we’re getting this week in a Falcons defense that brings the heat just 21.1% of the time (22nd).

The matchup lowers my confidence in a ceiling performance that lands Fields among the top three producers at the position. Yet, with him calling his own number as much as he is of late, I have no problem in ranking him inside of my top 10.

Atlanta hasn’t faced many mobile QBs this season. However, Kyler Murray and Joshua Dobbs did both clear nine fantasy points with their legs against the Dirty Birds — something I think Fields can do as he continues to offer a palatable floor despite his shortcomings.

Running Backs

Bijan Robinson: Consistent usage would sure be nice, but at this point in the season, wishing for that is kind of like my niece Ava wishing for a pony around the holidays. It ain’t happening, but we do take her to a petting zoo so she can get a sense of it.

Arthur Smith took us to the petting zoo last week against the Colts (72 rushing yards and 10 targets), but he refuses to buy us the fantasy equivalent of a pony — a fully unleashed version of Robinson that gets the opportunity count that he deserves and can thrive with.

The fact that we’ve seen the usage we clamor for makes Robinson an auto-start this week with your fantasy season on the line, though it does leave the door open for massive disappointment.

Ava didn’t unwrap a pony on Sunday (in part because, how would you wrap a pony?), and she probably won’t next year, either.

I’m hopeful the fantasy community gets what they deserve next year at the very least, but one last trip to the petting zoo to round out 2023 certainly wouldn’t hurt any of the loyal Robinson managers who have been suffering under Smith’s thumb for four months now.

Khalil Herbert: Do we finally have some clarity in this backfield? “Clarity” might be overstating it, but with 20 of 29 carries and 112 yards last week in a cake matchup against the Cardinals, Herbert certainly was given the chance to give us some hope for the final week of the season.

D’Onta Foreman sat out that contest and, as mentioned, it was about as good a spot as you could ask for. That said, the Falcons have allowed 100 total yards or a touchdown to the opposing starting RB in three straight, so if Herbert fills that role again, his path to Flex value is reasonably clear.

MORE: Fantasy Football Sleepers Week 17 — Khalil Herbert and Demario Douglas Are Quality Starting Options

He’s on the fringe of my top 30 at the position, a ranking that could improve as we get health updates for those surrounding him. Herbert doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence, though the projectable volume in a backfield that includes just him and Roschon Johnson is an appealing option.

Roschon Johnson: The rookie can produce at the NFL level, something Derek Tate was all over this summer, but we’re going to have to wait until 2024 to get a reasonable glimpse at what he can do in our fantasy world.

Johnson was given 12 touches last week against Arizona. While that count is encouraging, he was well behind Herbert in the hierarchy of this backfield and didn’t produce at a level to suggest immediate change is needed (53 yards).

I’ll be interested to see where his ADP falls in August and could very much see a scenario where I’m drafting him with consistency. But in the scope of Week 17 lineup decisions, Johnson need not be a part of the mix.

Wide Receivers

Drake London: The Hype surrounding London upon entering the league made us all think it was God’s Plan for him to produce big fantasy numbers, but the consistency simply hasn’t been there.

He feels like something of an Underdog this week to shine after posting just 8.8 fantasy points total over the past two weeks.

Maybe one day We’ll Be Fine, and he could well prove to be the Man of the Year in fantasy. But for Week 17, it seems more likely that the Nonstop disappointment continues, and London’s a part of the Headlines for the wrong reasons when it comes to fantasy-recap articles.

DJ Moore: The tremendous run of top-15 production with Fields under center has come to a crashing halt over the past two weeks, as Moore has managed just 10.5 fantasy points on 14 targets.

Thanks to a lack of target competition on this roster, Moore remains a play for me, but more in the vein of a low-end WR2, rubbing elbows with the Stefon Diggs’ and Calvin Ridleys of the world, who have also had their production jump all over the place this season.

I believe all three of them are strong talents, and in an era of football that focuses on offense, that is enough to land you a spot inside of my top 25, barring complete chaos under center. However, the floor is too low to elevate any of these stars much higher.

Tight Ends

Kyle Pitts: On the bright side, Pitts has scored in two of his past three games. On the not-so-bright side, this reenters him into the starting TE conversation with your season on the line.

If you have the stomach to plug him in, more power to you. I have Pitts ranked as TE15 this week and have a feeling that I’m 7+ spots off.

I just don’t know in what direction, and there lies the problem.

The quality of target in Atlanta is anything but favorable, and with Pitts seeing no more than five in seven of his past nine games, the floor, to me, is more worrisome than the ceiling is encouraging.

If you’re comfortable playing Pitts, I wish you the best of luck. If not, I encourage you to travel down to the bottom of this page, where I rank my three favorite TE streamers in an effort to help those who just lost Hockenson for the season.

Cole Kmet: I’m not a Kmet guy, and yet, I have him as my preferred TE option in this game. He is fresh off his first 100-yard performance as a pro and has cleared 9.0 half-PPR points in three straight games.

I maintain my stance that he really isn’t anything special, but this talent is void of pass-catching playmakers, and Kmet has taken advantage (24+ yard catch in three of his past four and 6.8 targets past eight games).

He’s not inside of my top 12 tight ends, but Kmet does check in ahead of the vaunted Pitts line, which holds value!

Las Vegas Raiders at Indianapolis Colts

• Spread: Colts -3
• Total: 44
• Raiders implied points: 20.5
• Colts implied points: 23.5

Quarterbacks

Gardner Minshew II: We’ve seen Gardner Minshew II produce a few ceiling performances this season, and this isn’t a bad spot against a bottom-five defense in terms of completion percentage.

Given the path of Michael Pittman Jr.’s health status last week, it stands to reason that Minshew has his WR1 back for this game, and that paves the way to a reasonable floor/ceiling projection.

This Indianapolis Colts’ offense is built around the ground game, and with Jonathan Taylor active, the Las Vegas Raiders figure to approach this matchup like most: load up the box and take your chances.

Taylor’s efficiency splits are very different when it comes to an extra defender in the box, and if Vegas elects to take away Indianapolis’ greatest strength, Minshew could very well replicate something similar to what he did against the Pittsburgh Steelers and Tennessee Titans earlier this month (over 7.0 yards per pass with multiple TD passes).

Running Backs

Josh Jacobs: With a one-year deal in hand and consecutive DNPs (quad/illness), it would appear unlikely that Jacobs returns to action this season. There’s no denying the steps back he took from a career year in 2022, but the soon-to-be 26-year-old figures to still draw some interest this offseason, and his landing spot will ultimately determine how much of a factor he is in our game.

He finished better than RB20 in just one of his last four games, and while there is some risk in investing in a running back, I’d imagine that a team takes a chance on him as their lead back in 2024.

Zamir White: After not getting much of a look as a rookie, White has impressed with consecutive top-15 finishes and 42 touches in Jacobs’ vacated role.

MORE: Zamir White Fantasy Waiver Wire Week 17

His limitations as a pass catcher date back to his days at Georgia, so there is unlikely to be true three-down upside in White’s profile like what Jacobs produced, but he runs hard and was able to pick up the needed yardage in the upset win over the Chiefs last week.

Assuming Jacobs sits, White should be viewed as a low-end RB2 who is worthy of starting in most formats.

Jonathan Taylor: With Zack Moss out (arm), JT filled the lead role as expected last week, but his 18 carries netted just 43 yards. He saved your day with a touchdown, his fourth in his past three games, but at under 4.0 yards per carry, we haven’t exactly seen vintage Taylor when active this season.

That said, he has still returned RB2 value at the very least in every game since his disappointing debut, and that should have him locked into your lineup. This is a plus matchup in terms of both rush efficiency and red-zone TD conversion rate, giving Taylor a nice ceiling to pair with his proven floor.

Wide Receivers

Davante Adams: There is no denying that this has been an underwhelming season for those who paid up for Adams in their draft, but at least last week was somewhat defensible.

The quality of targets is an issue for anyone on this team, so when you lock in a shutdown corner (L’Jarius Snead) on Adams, the projection can only be so optimistic. Add in a pair of quick defensive touchdowns, and Week 16 was the perfect storm for Adams to be a true bust (four yards on six targets).

I have some more hope in this matchup against a defense that has allowed four TDs to WR1s over their past five games. Adams has three top-10 finishes this season and seven games with at least 10 targets, a profile that, in my humble opinion, lands him in Super Bowl fantasy lineups.

Jakobi Meyers: The bottom was going to fall out sooner than later given the low target count and limited yardage upside, something we got a taste of last week against the Chiefs (three catches for 42 yards).

Are better times ahead? I’m not counting on it. Meyers has been held under 50 receiving yards in eight of his past nine games, so you’re banking on a touchdown in an offense that we hardly trust to score any touchdowns.

His last six positional finishes when failing to get into the end zone helps underscore just how low this floor is if you’re not willing to assume a touchdown:

WR69, WR92, WR67, WR39, WR51, WR60

I love Meyers as much as anyone, but I’m not playing him if I don’t have to this week.

Michael Pittman Jr.: The Pittman experience last week was a tough one for fantasy managers to follow, as he passed through concussion protocol as fast as anyone has all season but then saw symptoms surface following the flight to Atlanta and ultimately sat out.

The touchy nature of head injuries is obviously something that the league is keeping an eye on, and last week’s timeline suggests that we need to make sure to continue to monitor Pittman. At this moment in time, I’m expecting him to play and thus penciling him into lineups,

He’s been great all season (one catch away from his first 100-grab season and 21 yards away from a new career high in that department as well) and is a PPR beast who has proven to be capable of producing in just about any game setting.

He’s a big reason why you are sitting pretty at this point in the season, and I think you’ll have a good chance at having him back in your starting lineup for the finale.

Josh Downs: This is a good player to keep an eye on in the future but not right now unless Pittman sits again.

Downs earned a very respectable 25.7% target share last week, but the concerning part when it comes to his Week 17 projection is that, despite a strong role, he finished with 6.9 fantasy points.

Downs hasn’t reached 45 yards since Week 8 and hasn’t scored since Week 7 — you can do better with your season on the line.

Tight Ends

Michael Mayer: A toe injury kept Mayer out of action last week and is enough of a red flag to pass on streaming him even should he return to action this weekend.

I’m just mentioning his name in this piece so that you don’t forget about him in August. There is upside in his pedigree after having a full season to acclimate to the professional game, even if his 2023 stat line is underwhelming. Don’t lose track of the Golden Domer this offseason when you’re trying to get a feel for the TE position.

Los Angeles Rams at New York Giants

• Spread: Rams -6
• Total: 42
• Rams implied points: 24
• Giants implied points: 18

Quarterbacks

Matthew Stafford: That’s now five straight games with multiple TD passes for Stafford — a streak he extended in the first half of last week’s win over the Saints. Over the past two weeks, the veteran QB has completed 49 of 67 passes (73.1%).

There’s no way around it — Stafford is a top-10 play this weekend, very much deserving consideration to be played over flashier options like Tua Tagovailoa (at BAL), Kyler Murray (at PHI), and Justin Fields (vs. ATL).

I’d argue that he doesn’t have the ceiling of those options, but the elevated floor that Stafford is sporting at the moment makes him a very appealing option with all the chips in the middle of your table.

Prior to Thanksgiving, you had Stafford rostered as a streamer that you’d give a look in the right matchup. Now, he’s very much a starter as his Rams chase a playoff berth.

Running Backs

Kyren Williams: Nothing to see here, just another game with 100+ yards and a score. Williams now has seven such games in his 11 appearances this season, making him one of the most consistently elite options in our game.

Could I nitpick his zero-target Week 16? I could, because it’s the second time he’s done that this season, but Williams also has five games with at least five targets. His role in the passing game is gravy given his true bell-cow status on the ground.

The 23-year-old RB is a great play any week, but especially as a big favorite for a motivated team in a favorable matchup. Lock in Williams and feel good that your RB1 can keep up with whoever your opponent is throwing at you.

Saquon Barkley: He’s not in a position to be the fantasy superstar we wanted him to be this summer, but 23 carries and a 22.2% target share last week is the role we had in mind and that leaves the door open to elite production.

The Rams are an average run defense that allows only 31.4% of opponent touchdowns to come on the ground (eighth lowest). This isn’t a perfect matchup, but if his touch count is anything close to what it was last week (that is, New York can keep this game close), Barkley will reward you for your patience.

I’m starting Barkley wherever I have him and am not too worried about the downside that inherently comes with being a part of this offense.

Wide Receivers

Cooper Kupp: After consecutive games with over 110 receiving yards and a score, Kupp left his fantasy managers wanting more on Thursday night’s dominating win over New Orleans.

The stat line may not be overly impressive, but he had his hands on a pair of passes in the end zone. If one of those plays connects, we’re viewing Kupp’s Week 16 very differently.

There’s no reason to think twice about his status in your lineup this week against a unit that is bottom 10 in scoring and red-zone defense.

Puka Nacua: Another big game for the impressive rookie, and this one could have been even better had Stafford not badly misfired on what should have been a 22-yard score. You never want to heap expectations onto a young player, but I’m simply sharing information:

Justin Jefferson’s first 15 games: 247.9 PPR points
Mike Evans’ first 15 games: 245.1 PPR points
Nacua’s first 15 games: 265.7 PPR points

Four of Nacua’s five touchdowns this season have come in victories, and he has yet to see fewer than seven passes thrown his way in a game. It’s not rare to see a rookie have success in the league — it’s rare to see a player earn targets with this level of consistency from the get-go.

He’ll be a top-15 receiver this summer and could very much threaten the WR1 conversation. A special season, and Nacua is showing no signs of slowing down.

Demarcus Robinson: Los Angeles’ WR3 did most of his damage in the first half last week, which was plenty. Robinson has scored in four straight games and has been efficient outside of an outlier performance in Baltimore (Week 14).

Can you Flex him in this plus spot? You can, but you don’t have to. I have Robinson ranked on the fringe due to his inconsistencies in the target department.

MORE: Demarcus Robinson Fantasy Waiver Wire Week 17

Given how well Williams is running and the target earning abilities of his teammates, it’s difficult to project Robinson for strong volume in any given week. That said, he’s clearly being used in close in an offense that is peaking at the perfect time.

Robinson deserves to be considered ahead of other receivers who are third options on their own team, players like Seattle Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Minnesota Vikings WR Jordan Addison.

Darius Slayton: Don’t look now, but Slayton has consecutive games over 60 receiving yards for the first time this season and even scored for the second time this year last week.

I’d love to claim that we have found something in this New York passing game that resembles something close to stability — but I’m not betting on it. Slayton hasn’t seen more than three targets in three of his past four, and we already know the quality of targets is low to say the least.

Slayton is why DFS is a beautiful thing. We discussed him on the podcast this week due to the Rams owning the second-highest opponent aDOT, a weakness that was exploited by the Saints last week with Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed turning 14 catches into 193 yards and a 45-yard score.

In a GPP, Slayton makes plenty of sense. How about in a season-long league with a title on the line? I’d rather go back to Shaheed than target a low-volume member of this Giants passing game.

Tight Ends

Darren Waller: I understand how you can get there on wanting to plug in Waller (catch of 20+ yards in five of his past six games), but I just can’t get there.

His non-20-yard catches this season are netting just 8.3 yards per grab, and that comes without much scoring equity given the state of the QB position in New York these days.

Waller is floating around my TE20 this week and is only an option for those in deeper leagues where my top three streaming options at the position (listed at the bottom) are unavailable.

Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles

• Spread: Eagles -11
• Total: 49
• Cardinals implied points: 19
• Eagles implied points: 30

Quarterbacks

Kyler Murray: Murray is coming off of his first multi-touchdown pass game of the season and has a 30+ yard completion in five of his six starts this season. This isn’t a bad matchup, in terms of the passing game, but Murray’s fantasy value relies less on that weakness than most (62.3% complete without a 260-yard passing game this season).

I worry that the floor is higher than the ceiling in this matchup, given the Eagles’ ability to slow the ground game and possess the ball on the offensive side. Murray doesn’t fall outside of my top 15, but he sits outside of my top 10 this week, and that’s lower than where he normally falls.

He’s not a must-start — I have Jared Goff ranked ahead of him, as we prepare for the week to kickoff.

Jalen Hurts: My top-ranked QB for the week has 15 rushing touchdowns this season – a number that is hard to properly appreciate. The fact that he continues to carry fantasy teams, despite having just two passing touchdowns this month, is a testament to how fantasy-friendly his skill set is.

MORE: Soppe’s Early Fantasy Football Week 17 QB Rankings

Hurts is my top signal-caller this week, and there was next to no hesitation in me doing so. I expect him to hold that title this week – and likely heading into next season – as long as the “Brotherly Shove” is a legal play.

Running Backs

James Conner: The veteran running back has been an RB1 in three straight games after posting just one such finish the season prior. Good players produce, but great ones peak at the right time for their fantasy teams. Print the shirts!

Conner has scored four times in those three games and has caught all eight of his targets since the Week 14 bye. The matchup dictates that his ranking suffers a bit, but it’s not nearly enough to remove him from starting lineups.

The Cardinals have one path to keeping this game close, and Conner is their path to accomplishing that.

D’Andre Swift: Last week was anything but a standard Swift game, but his 20 carries were encouraging to see.

The zero-target performance was moderately concerning, but I’m not willing to panic just yet. The 20 totes last week was his most since Week 2, and his RB14 finish last week was his first top-25 showing at the position since Week 11.

I think he does it again. I have him ranked as a high-end RB2 – right where he finished last week, and something he should be able to do against the defense that allows the most red-zone trips in the league.

Wide Receivers

Marquise Brown: “Hollywood” Brown sat out last week due to a heel injury that has been plaguing him for the majority of December. I’m not sure that he has any motivation to return this week, but even if he does, how could you possibly justify moving his name into your lineup?

Brown hasn’t scored since October, and an injury like this could not only prove prohibitive to a receiver with this skill set, but is also a threat to creep back up during the game. I’d actually play chess, while others play checkers.

I’d cut Brown and hope that your opponent sees a bigger name on the waiver wire and absorbs the risk if he’s cleared.

Michael Wilson: Hand up — that’s on me. I thought Wilson would take advantage of a good spot with Marquise Brown out, and I was dead wrong. The promising rookie air-balled for the second consecutive week and failed to catch any of the seven targets thrown his way since he returned from a month off.

Do I remain interested in Wilson long-term? You bet, but am I tempting fate by going back to him as a sleeper special this weekend? I am not.

A.J. Brown: It was a slow burn last week for Brown, but he got you 11.0 half-PPR points and earned a 30.6% target share, thanks to the New York Giants keeping things competitive on Christmas Day.

Brown hasn’t scored in four straight, and that’s irksome, but with double-digit targets in all four of those games, you have to feel good about the game-changing asset you have on your roster.

DeVonta Smith: Smith’s Week 16 was a complete contrast to Brown’s. He had the fantasy production (15.9 points), but he didn’t have the impressive usage (13.9% target share).

After struggling through October, Smith has posted a top-20 finish in six of his past eight games. He is relying a lot on efficiency with an 80% catch rate or better in four of his past five, and while that creates a path to disappointment if Hurts is even just a touch off, you’re playing Smith with an eye on an upside that far outweighs the risk.

Tight Ends

Trey McBride: There’s no reason to deny a special talent when you see it, and that’s the case here. McBride has caught at least five passes in six straight and is earning targets at an elite rate for any tight end — let alone one that is in just his second NFL season.

MORE: Top 10 TE Fantasy Football Seasons of All Time

With Philadelphia’s pressure rate being greater than their blitz rate this season, this profiles as a one-and-done sort of route-reading game from Murray. At this point, why would we assume that McBride isn’t the first read on the majority of their plays?

He settles in as my TE3 this week. Lock him in and feel amazing about it!

Dallas Goedert: He has been back for three games, and the progression has been unusually linear. Return with low risk, high percentage targets, progress to a higher target share and less efficiency, and blend volume with efficiency.

That’ll work and is enough for me to consider Goedert a lineup lock. He has matched a season-high in targets in consecutive games, and while Hurts can be iffy in terms of passing consistency, Goedert proved to be a reliable option on Monday against the Giants with seven catches on nine targets.

With just two touchdowns on his 2023 ledger and barely 10 yards per catch, Goedert is unlikely to break open your matchup, but he should contribute in a positive manner, and that’s more than a lot of tight ends can offer at this point in the season.

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Spread: Buccaneers -3
• Total: 42.5
• Saints implied points: 19.8
• Buccaneers implied points: 22.8

Quarterbacks

Baker Mayfield: This matchup is scary, but there is no denying what Mayfield has been able to do with multiple passing scores in seven of his past nine games. His first meeting with the Saints came before he found his stride late in October, and yet, he still lit them up for 246 yards and three scores while completing over 78% of his passes.

The concern here is Mike Evans. Mayfield’s go-to receiver has had a tough go of it against the Saints over the course of his Hall of Fame career (keep reading), and if Mayfield’s touchdown equity flies out the window as a result, it’s going to be difficult for Mayfield to wedge himself into the top 12 this week.

He’s my QB15, a ranking that gives him streaming appeal if you’re backed into a corner with a banged-up QB1.

Running Backs

Alvin Kamara: For the second time in three weeks, the versatile Kamara failed to reach 50 total yards.

Yes, he has at least three catches in every game he has played this season, which helps create a PPR floor, but his yards per catch is at a career low. And with 10 touchdowns in his 27 games over the past two seasons, the scoring potential isn’t strong enough to keep him ranked among the elite if the efficiency isn’t there.

You’re playing Kamara because of his floor, but it’s probably wise to lower your expectations when it comes to his ceiling. He opened his 2023 season against these Bucs with 84 yards on 24 touches, a game that has served as something of a guiding light.

The shine isn’t off of him like it is some other star running backs at this point in the season, but assuming you’re getting top-10 production out of him is a bit optimistic for my liking.

Jamaal Williams: I was hopeful that the 2022 TD king would hold a scoring role that would land him on the Flex radar, but I was wrong. The Saints aren’t interested in using Williams in any meaningful way (two carries and one target last week in Los Angeles), making him dead weight on any fantasy team.

I’d rather have an all-or-nothing receiver or even a handcuff that has no role outside of an injury that plays for a more potent offense.

Rachaad White: I guess there is still time, but White is on the short list of players that I’m considering casting my fantasy MVP ballot for. He has 20-plus carries and a touchdown in four straight games, helping you even more at the perfect time in the season.

As for the season on the whole, 10-straight, top-20 finishes for a player we all took turns at dismissing this preseason is down right extraordinary. Do I think he can repeat it in 2024? We will cross that bridge when we come to it (I won’t lie, I do get some 2022 Rhamondre Stevenson vibes here), but in terms of Week 17, you’re starting him without a second thought.

Wide Receivers

Chris Olave: If it’s true that teams script their first drive or two and work on it consistently throughout the week, then the Saints think the world of their WR1.

Olave was targeted on Derek Carr’s first three passes and finished with over 112 receiving yards for the third time in four games (a total he had reached once in his career prior).

MORE: Fantasy News Tracker

Any argument against Olave being one of the 15 best receivers in the game starts and ends with New Orleans’ limitations under center. His talent at all three levels jumps off the screen, and I expect we see more of the same against a defense that is much better against the run than the pass.

You’re playing Olave with confidence this week. If you don’t roster him, watch this game and sell yourself on Olave as an early target in your 2024 draft. He’s as good as any of the young receivers that are populating the NFL.

Rashid Shaheed: Right when you’re out on Shaheed, he sucks you back in. After four straight games under 40 yards, the burner got behind the Rams’ defense for a 45-yard touchdown, reminding the fantasy industry that he can be a difference-maker in the right matchup.

Could this be another right spot? Only once in his career has Shaheed posted consecutive 70-yard games. That’s the bad. The good is that the one occurrence did involve a game in Tampa Bay and that the Bucs are currently a bottom-five defense in terms of yards per pass attempt and percentage of opponent yards that come through the air.

Shaheed carries more risk than I’m willing to take on if I believe I have the better team in my playoff matchup. But if you think you’re playing from behind, this is exactly the type of player I’d be looking to Flex.

Mike Evans: I mentioned White as a fantasy MVP candidate given our perception of him this preseason and his production — Evans is also very much on my MVP ballot. He has only four scoreless games this season and has finished as a WR2 or better in seven of his past eight games.

That said, Superman has kryptonite, and Evans has the Saints.

Green kryptonite: Material that weakens Superman and other Kryptonians. It can be lethal with long-term exposure with the impacted party experiencing severe muscular weakness and excruciating pain.

If you’ve rostered Evans since the day Marshon Lattimore was drafted, you’ve experienced these symptoms.

A history of Mike Evans vs. the Saints since Marshon Lattimore was drafted in 2017. pic.twitter.com/y4NYiHHmVE

— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) September 26, 2023

Is this Mayfield/Evans connection strong enough to survive this weakness? I’m not a big comic book guy, so I have no idea if Superman ever figured out a way around kryptonite (in this era of technology, I’d certainly hope so).

I’d think that the Bucs would be able to scheme up some favorable looks for their top receiver, but that is also a sentence I’ve typed twice a year for as long as I can remember.

Evans is outside of my top 10 this week but isn’t someone I’m recommending you bench. I’ll go down with the target share, touchdown equity, and talent.

Chris Godwin: “Better late than never.”

Or is it? My wife says this a lot to her students who turn in work late, but at some point, it stops mattering. Handing in a first semester in the second semester, for example, is better never than late. What’s the point? It’s a sunk opportunity that you’re now wasting time to complete for no reason.

That’s what this recent Godwin run feels like. He sunk your team for the better part of three months, and now that your season is over due to getting underwhelming production from your WR2/Flex consistently — why does it matter?

If you’ve survived to this point with Godwin, then you’re thrilled, I’m just not sure how likely that is. Three of his five double-target games this season have come in the past three weeks, a usage pattern that I actually like to continue through this week.

MORE: Soppe’s Early Fantasy Football Week 17 WR Rankings

Evans was injured in the first Saints meeting this season, but there’s no denying that Godwin’s usage upside is greater in this specific matchup than most.

When these teams met back in Week 4, Godwin vacuumed in 36.7% of the targets on his way to 114 yards, catching four more passes than any of his teammates had targets in that game.

The pride of Penn State has been a top-40 receiver in four straight after posting an average positional finish of WR53 in the four games beforehand. He’s flirting with a low-grade WR2 rank this week, alongside players like Jayden Reed.

Tight Ends

Taysom Hill: The midseason Hill experience was fun while it lasted, but there’s no need to chase it any longer. The utility knife has one target and three rushing yards total over the past two weeks, making him just another tight end and nothing special for fantasy purposes.

Sure, you could claim that Hill has access to a ceiling that is rare for the position, and I wouldn’t argue.

But that’s kind of like telling me that we have a 60-degree day coming this week on the East Coast — it could happen, but I’m going to need to see some proof that an outlier like that is coming as opposed to just praying that it does.

Hill isn’t on my radar as a viable TE to consider this weekend with your fantasy title on the line.

Cade Otton: If showing up is half the battle, then Otton gets exactly half credit for his 2023 season.

He ranks among the very elite at the position in terms of route participation and snap rate, but he has spit in the face of fantasy managers at just about every turn by earning more than five targets just four times this season (most recently: Week 9 at HOU).

If you’re going to project Evans to struggle in this matchup and carry over some of his usage to Otton, I wish you the best of luck. I really do. It’s just not something I’m remotely comfortable in doing in the final matchup of the season.

San Francisco 49ers at Washington Commanders

• Spread: 49ers -13.5
• Total: 49
• 49ers implied points: 31.3
• Commanders implied points: 17.8

Quarterbacks

Brock Purdy: As bad as Purdy was last week against the Ravens (0 TDs and four INTs), I have zero concerns. Of course, you surviving last week with Purdy active is unlikely, but if you’re in the tiny percentage of managers who pulled that off, you’re playing Purdy this week against easily the worst-scoring defense and not thinking twice about it.

The neck stinger that he suffered late in that upset loss to Baltimore isn’t expected to have any sort of lasting impact, and that puts Purdy in a spot to return top-five value at the position.

Since Halloween, he has four games with 3+ TD passes, and in this spot against a defense that sees nearly 65% of opponent TDs (seventh highest) come through the air, I’d be surprised if he didn’t add to that total in a bounce-back spot.

Running Backs

Christian McCaffrey: There’s a reason this man enters Week 17 with the second-shortest odds to win the NFL MVP. The 49ers got handled by the Ravens last week, and all McCaffrey did was finish with the second-most fantasy points at the position, his ninth top-five finish of the season.

CMC was considered an option for the first overall pick in August, and he might be near unanimous in eight months when we are drafting for 2024. There isn’t a player with a better floor/ceiling combination; it really is that simple.

Brian Robinson Jr.: B-Rob injured his hamstring in Week 13’s blowout loss to the Dolphins and has yet to see action.

Washington is better off losing down the stretch, and with Robinson in the middle of his rookie deal, it’s hard to envision the Commanders giving him a meaningful workload — if they play him at all.

Robinson’s growth is something that has my attention in a reasonable way when it comes to looking forward. His yards-per-carry average is up nearly 7% from his encouraging rookie season, but it’s his role in the passing game that has me singing an optimistic tune.

2022: 4.2% of touches were receptions
2023: 18.1% of touches have been receptions

If Washington can land one of the big-name QBs in the draft this year, Robinson could see his stock rise in a significant way as the featured back with added versatility in an offense set to improve in a major way.

It’s way too early, but this is a name I tentatively have circled for redraft leagues in 2024.

Antonio Gibson: Outside of a late carry to cash his over in rushing yards, Gibson’s Week 16 against the Jets was nondescript — 10 touches for 32 yards. He managed to cash in a short carry and that saved his fantasy managers, but it was a second consecutive week without much in the way of bankable usage with Robinson hurt.

His role in the passing game has been his calling card in the past, but with just two yards on his two targets, that role doesn’t seem as bulletproof as it once was. If Robinson is again sidelined, Gibson’s time on the field lands him in the Flex conversation, but you shouldn’t feel obligated to play him, assuming that a late injury to Chris Rodriguez Jr. doesn’t linger.

Chris Rodriguez Jr.: He scored a pair of touchdowns last week against the Jets and has proven to be the superior between-the-tackles option over Gibson with Robinson sidelined. An ankle injury took Rodriguez off the field in the final moments of Washington’s loss, so I have a hard time seeing him pushed much past the season-high 11 touches he got last week.

MORE: Week 17 RB Waiver Wire Targets — Top Players To Add Include Tyjae Spears and Chris Rodriguez Jr.

The sixth-round rookie is a name to remember in the later stages of drafts next season, and he is a fine depth option for Week 17, but he’s not close to my Flex radar in this brutal matchup.

Wide Receivers

Deebo Samuel: On a positive note, Samuel saw a season-high 12 targets last week against the Ravens, but those looks resulted in just 6.7 fantasy points and left fantasy managers wanting more.

I would take pity on you for the unlucky performance, but this is what you signed up for — sporadic usage and production. “In sickness and in health,” you married yourself to this offense and have to ride and die with it.

Previous two games: 19 targets and 95 receiving yards
Two games before that: 13 targets and 265 receiving yards

Does that make much sense? No. Would I have been able to tell you that a month like that was likely to be a 49er if you presented it to be in the preseason? Yep!

Samuel deserves to be started this week with just as much confidence as he has been any week of the season. Trust the process and hope that the usage is an indicator for a big week in a perfect spot.

Brandon Aiyuk: He certainly looked the part last week (113 yards) as he posted his sixth 100-yard campaign of the season against the top yards-per-play defense in all the land.

He has scored or gained 30+ yards on a catch in seven of his past eight games. Much like Samuel, however, we are not talking about the most consistent of options. He was scoreless in six straight games before scoring in four straight and has now been held out of the end zone in three straight.

This offense is elite but only has one player that you know will be elite each week. Hopefully, you understood what investing in this team meant — it means that you’re playing your option and never thinking twice about it, no matter the matchup or the form.

They are all one big play away from providing you with matchup-altering numbers and the price of having access to that is some confusing trends.

Deal with it.

Terry McLaurin: The name value here is certainly higher than the production indicates is reasonable, and that’s always a dangerous way to conclude your season.

McLaurin has not been a top-40 receiver in five of his past six games, and his only touchdown over his past seven games didn’t come from the man who has thrown him the most passes over that stretch in Howell.

If you strip away the name, nothing in McLaurin’s profile points to an option you should feel even remotely comfortable starting.

He checks in as a middling WR3 for me this week, a spot in the ranks that means you have to weigh your other options and seriously consider benching a WR that you thought had star power.

Even with sporadic production for Chris Godwin, Zay Flowers, and Tyler Lockett this season, they are all receivers that I’d plug in ahead of McLaurin this weekend.

Curtis Samuel: For the first time this season, Samuel was handed the ball on multiple occasions last week, and he did see 5+ targets for a fourth straight game.

That usage is the sort of thing I’d love to see in late October, but at this point in the season, we have too much proof of downside that I’m not willing to invest.

Through 16 weeks, Samuel has as many top-30 finishes as he does weeks outside of the top 70 WRs — that’s not a risk/reward equation that I’m tempted to test in this spot.

Tight Ends

George Kittle: Things worked in Kittle’s favor last week, as the Ravens made a point of focusing on Samuel, thus allowing the tight end to record his third 100-yard performance of the season.

We know the ceiling is nothing short of elite, and while the floor is terrifyingly low (four games under 20 yards this season), if you’re not comfortable in playing him against a defense that allows over 30 points per game, why did you draft him?

Carolina Panthers at Jacksonville Jaguars

• Spread: Jaguars -7
• Total: 38
• Panthers implied points: 15.5
• Jaguars implied points: 22.5

Quarterbacks

Trevor Lawrence: His status for this game was in question entering the week as he continues to battle a laundry list of injuries, but the mystery is no more — Lawrence has been ruled OUT for Week 17.

Running Backs

Chuba Hubbard: I never would have thought that we’d be here: ready to crown 2023 fantasy champions, and Hubbard would be working on a stretch of five straight games returning fantasy value.

But here we are. Players like this are what makes fantasy equally frustrating and fun. On one hand, active managers who identified this as a potential volume spot are being rewarded in a significant way. On the other, a player like Hubbard allows a team that drafted poorly to overachieve by simply getting lucky with additions.

Hubbard has at least 17 touches in all of those strong performances, and that role appears here to stay. The Panthers have no reason to throw away these final two games because the Bears have their first-round pick, so I’m expecting their offense to function this week as it has for a month now: run-centric with Hubbard being the center of their universe.

The Panthers’ workhorse is a top-20 play for me, ranking ahead of players like Austin Ekeler and Derrick Henry, options that were considered fantasy royalty less than four months ago.

Travis Etienne Jr.: This end to the season isn’t ideal for those of us with Etienne who thought we had a top-five RB thanks to his early season success. The Jags’ bell cow hasn’t been a top-25 running back in the majority of his games since Jacksonville’s Week 9 bye, a run that includes a season-worst RB47 finish last week against the Buccaneers.

MORE: Fantasy RB Start/Sit Week 17

In discussing last week specifically, the matchup and game script worked away from Etienne and contributed to a poor performance.

I’m less worried on both of those fronts this season — Etienne should catch multiple passes this week (something he has done in every game this season) and reach 15 carries for the first time since Week 12 as long as the game follows the path we expect.

Wide Receivers

Adam Thielen: The veteran receiver was productive on your bench last week against the Packers with six catches for 94 yards, but his inconsistent production makes him a tough sell in a championship setting as a part of an offense that we don’t trust in any capacity.

Over the last six games, he’s finished with positional rankings of 24, 119, 50, 29, 50, and 24.

Personally, I’m looking for any reason to sit Thielen. Chasing the upside of Rashid Shaheed? Fine by me. Operating with the hope that K.J. Osborn’s expanded role pays off against the Packers? You have my blessing. Heck, if you’re a double-digit underdog, I don’t mind adding Jameson Williams this week and hoping that his recent uptick in usage results in a strong week.

DJ Chark Jr.: Chark needs to be mentioned because he scored twice last week against Green Bay and likely led your waiver wire in Flex points for the week.

He wasn’t a top-40 receiver in any of the six weeks preceding the big Week 16 performance, and that game was his first game since mid-October with even five targets. There’s simply not enough meat on this bone to consider going back to the well unless you are absolutely stuck in a deep league.

Calvin Ridley: He really embraced the role of fantasy playoff hero by scoring a pair of touchdowns in a terrible Jacksonville game where Lawrence departed early.

Ridley’s stock is pretty shaky, at best, but with 42 targets over his past four games, you have something to hang your hat on in starting him as your Flex player. It’s not what we thought he’d be limited to this season, but Ridley has very much been a pick-on-the-bad-team-struggle-against-the-good-teams type of fantasy asset lately.

In the three toughest matchups since Jacksonville’s bye, he’s averaged 0.60 fantasy points per target. In the four easiest since the bye, he’s averaged 2.24.

With the Panthers this week and the Tennessee Titans next, Ridley could be the league winner that he was labeled as this summer. I had him ranked as a low-end WR2 this week with the hope that Lawrence could play, but now sits outside of my top 20 and is a Flex play that ranks just ahead of the Courtland Sutton-less Jerry Jeudy.

Zay Jones: The idea of Jones seeing eight-plus targets in three-straight games is nice, but with an average finish of WR38 over that stretch, what is the upside that we are realistically targeting?

I’m not comfortable in the third option in this passing game in a fantasy playoff setting — no matter who is under center.

Tight Ends

Evan Engram: In three of four games, Engram has caught nine-plus passes, as he continues to flex his muscle as a Tier 2 producer at the toughest position to fill in our game.

I’d certainly argue that his ADP value has proven greater than that of the elite tight ends, and I fully expect him to continue to give you strong production, as we near the end of the season.

Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens

• Spread: Ravens -4
• Total: 47
• Dolphins implied points: 21.5
• Ravens implied points: 25.5

Quarterbacks

Tua Tagovailoa: Without a rushing floor to stabilize his value, Tagovailoa relies on his receivers making plays after the catch – a profile similar to that of Brock Purdy, who was just systematically picked apart by these Ravens (18 of 32 with no touchdowns and four interceptions with missed opportunities for even more).

By no means am I suggesting that Tagovailoa is in for an afternoon like that, but he’s not an auto-start. If C.J. Stroud (vs. TEN) is cleared, I would entertain the idea of going in that direction. I might even go for Derek Carr (at TB).

Tagovailoa fell three spots in my Week 17 QB rankings with the official news that Jaylen Waddle would sit, putting him outside of my top 10 and firmly in the “how lucky do you feel” tier at the position.

Lamar Jackson: The raw numbers may not be as reflective of Jackson’s stellar year as his impact on the Ravens, but let’s not act like his production is losing you weeks. Since the bye, Jackson has nothing but top-10 finishes on his résumé and still possesses that elite upside that we’ve become accustomed to, as seen with five top-five finishes.

Jackson was pressured in the pocket last week and was scrambling to pass. I think we could see more of the same this week against the second-best pressure defense in the league, and a moving Jackson is the version fantasy managers want.

MORE: Lamar Jackson Is the New Betting Favorite To Win MVP

The unique talent of Jackson is fantasy gold and should remove any doubt you have in starting him with the utmost confidence. With the MVP award and the top AFC playoff seed on the line, I have no issue in paying up for him in DFS, in addition to rolling him out in your fantasy Super Bowl.

Running Backs

Raheem Mostert: We are looking at an underappreciated running back who has returned fantasy starter value in each of his past eight games.

There are holes to poke in his yardage trends (under 50 rushing yards in three of his past four, and no more than eight receiving yards in nine straight), but with his defined role around the goal line as a part of an elite offense, there’s no reason to run away from Miami’s single-season record holder for touchdowns scored.

The risk is greater this week than most, due to the matchup, but unless you have a loaded roster, there’s not much thought that needs to go into your decision-making when it comes to Mostert.

De’Von Achane: The explosive rookie has come on some tough times of late (three-straight finishes outside of the top 25 at the position), and while his skill remains enticing, his role simply isn’t that of a consistent fantasy option.

In those three games, Achane is averaging under 11 touches per game, making him a tough sell. We saw the potential that he has showcased early this season, and while that skill is still in his profile, the path to accessing it in this matchup is unlikely.

MORE: Should De’Von Achane Be Traded Away in Dynasty Leagues?

In his four games with a touchdown this season, he has ranked among the top-five running backs. In the five games without a score, though, he’s ranked outside of the top 25 running backs.

Gus Edwards: The “Gus Bus” has posted consecutive top-20 finishes and has found the end zone in six-straight games when getting 10-plus touches – a role he figures to fulfill in this spot against the explosive Dolphins with fellow Ravens RB Keaton Mitchell sidelined.

He’s pretty clearly my favorite back in Baltimore this week, but that doesn’t mean he’s a fantasy starter. With Jackson more than capable of picking up yards on the ground and OC Todd Monken getting creative with his quick-hitting pass plays, this is an elite offense that doesn’t currently have an RB ranked inside of my top 30 at the position.

Justice Hill: His role as the pass-catching option next to Edwards is safe, but I’m just not sure it’s valuable for our purposes. Hill’s next game with 50 rushing yards or five targets will be his first this season, giving him next to no path for Flex value.

If you’re considering Hill for your lineup, you’re simply betting blindly on this offense, and that’s a dangerous way to live.

Wide Receivers

Tyreek Hill: The nine catches for 99 yards that he gave us last week almost felt underwhelming. Hill was held in check early by the Dallas Cowboys, but, as he has done so many times this season, he proved that stopping him for 60 minutes is a near-impossible task.

With nine games of 10-plus targets this season, I’m not ruling out his chase for 2,000 yards (currently 359 yards shot). There is no decision to make here, as Hill continues to produce as one of the premier players in this league.

Jaylen Waddle: What is being labeled as a high ankle sprain has Waddle labeled as “week-to-week” and he is officially OUT for Week 17.

The beauty of this week for the Dolphins is that they can still win the AFC East with a win next week against the Bills — no matter their result against the Ravens this week. Recovering in two weeks from an ankle sprain like this is optimistic, to say the least, but it’s more likely than recovering in a single week.

Keep an eye on Waddle’s official status moving into next week. If a division title is on the line, maybe he finds a way to help your Week 18 roster.

Zay Flowers: The rookie has seen 10+ targets in two of three games after not doing it once since early October. Flowers has shown growth as a target earner, which has to be viewed as encouraging for both fantasy managers this week and Ravens fans that want to play February football this season.

I’m not 100% sold on an encouraging floor due to the sporadic nature of this pass game and the fact that Flowers has only one 25-yard catch over his past eight games. That said, due to the injuries at the QB position, a player trending in the direction of Flowers — three scores in his past four games — is close to impossible to bench.

Baltimore’s top receiver checks in as WR25 for me this week and is more valuable as the points awarded per reception increase.

Odell Beckham Jr.: As Flowers’ stock ascends, Beckham’s role moves in the opposite direction. The veteran receiver has turned six targets into just 27 yards over the past two weeks, an ugly run of production after three top-20 performances in a five-game window.

While I do believe that there is still upside in OBJ’s bag, his low floor has him sitting just outside of my top 40 right now.

Tight Ends

Isaiah Likely: Rare talents have a place in the NFL and certainly have a place in our game. Likely is averaging 13.0 yards per catch this season and has a catch gaining more than 25 yards in back-to-back-to-back games.

His target count may not be elite, but what Likely can do with every ball thrown his way is more than enough to offset any concerns about his number of opportunities. I’m continuing to consider him a top-10 lock on a weekly basis, something that isn’t changing in a game like this that could end in a shootout.

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans

• Spread: Texans -3.5
• Total: 42.5
• Titans implied points: 19.5
• Texans implied points: 23

Quarterbacks

C.J. Stroud: Are we positive Stroud is still the OROY? He sat out last week (concussion), and with Puka Nacua continuing to pile up numbers, it’s an interesting conversation to have.

Stroud missed the first meeting between these two (Case Keenum threw for 229 yards and a touchdown on 36 attempts), but he’s had tremendous success in his two most recent games against defenses that are considerably stronger against the run.

Week 9 vs. TB: 71.4% completion percentage, 470 pass yards, QB1 finish
Week 12 vs. JAX: 72.2% completion percentage, 304 pass yards, QB4 finish

I think we’ve seen enough from Stroud at this point to feel comfortable starting him in a matchup like this, assuming all health hurdles are cleared. For the most part, the middle tier of the QB position is in less than advantageous spots, something that fuels my confidence in Stroud being your best option.

• Jordan Love at Minnesota Vikings
• Baker Mayfield vs. New Orleans Saints
• Geno Smith vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Running Backs

Derrick Henry: The King was fantasy’s fourth-best RB last week against the Seahawks, something you love to see on the heels of a 16-carry, nine-yard stinker against the Texans.

The big game against Seattle was Henry’s fourth multi-TD effort in a five-game stretch, all of which have been top-10 finishes. The only problem with that note is that the lone exception was the Texans, the team on tap this week.

We’re looking at a rich man’s version of Gus Edwards. Henry has finished better than RB28 just twice this season when not finding the end zone, so in deciding if you want to play him or not, you have to identify how likely he is to cross the goal line.

I give Henry a decent chance to get there, which is why I have him ranked inside of my top 20 at the position. The efficiency is a concern, but if Henry can punch in a short-scoring chance, he’s going to produce an acceptable point total in all fantasy leagues to justify starting.

Tyjae Spears: The rookie RB has been a top-30 performer in three of his past four games thanks to a strong role as the pass-catching option in this backfield (4+ catches in all three of those strong finishes).

The floor is low, that much we know. Spears only has one double-digit carry on his NFL résumé and hasn’t scored since Week 5 against the Colts.

Flexing Spears is more of a desperation play than it is one that makes a ton of sense in a close matchup. Tennessee would be well served to extend his role down the stretch, but we’ve yet to get definitive proof that a change in the hierarchy of this backfield is coming.

Devin Singletary: When these teams met in Week 15 (a game without Stroud or Nico Collins), Singletary carried it 26 times for 121 yards. He was the only running back with multiple carries in the 19-16 overtime win.

Could Houston’s game plan be a bit different this week with some increased offensive health? It certainly could, especially given Tennessee’s struggles have largely come in defending the pass this season.

But I’m of the belief that the Texans will make the Titans prove that they can slow Singletary as opposed to committing fully to the passing attack from the get-go.

That train of thought lands Singletary’s volume as an RB2. I still have my doubts about this offensive line, something that has proven legitimate given the lack of week-over-week consistency of this ground game.

The health of Stroud changes a lot — but might actually change very little in terms of Singletary’s projection. Having the star rookie under center caps his touch count a bit, but it also helps the overall scoring potential of Houston’s offense.

Without Stroud, Singletary’s role is borderline elite, but the quality of each individual touch is in question.

Wide Receivers

DeAndre Hopkins: Every great receiver is quarterback-proof until they aren’t.

Hopkins has done a pretty good job this season at overcoming the limitations of the offense around him, but over the past two weeks, his 13 targets have netted just 6.1 fantasy points.

Could his form trend back in the right direction if Will Levis is cleared? Yep! But even then, we’re talking about a receiver with seven finishes outside of the top 50 this season.

I’m actively looking for reasons to sit Nuk on my bench. Tyler Lockett and Zay Flowers would qualify as such options, and I think both Steeler receivers are at least in that conversation.

Nico Collins: He was able to return top-30 value last week thanks to a short touchdown and the accompanying two-point conversion. Collins’ 18 yards on six targets were far from inspiring, but all of the math changes should Stroud return under center.

MORE: Katz’s Fantasy Football Start ’Em, Sit ’Em Picks for Week 17 — Nico Collins, Aaron Jones, Stefon Diggs, and Others

These two teams played in Week 15, and Noah Brown saw a 32.4% target share as the WR1 in this offense — a role I expect Collins to fill. If he can flirt with that level of usage, he’s a fine fantasy play. If he does that in a game with Stroud active, he’s a top-20 play at the position with a ceiling that is worth chasing.

Noah Brown: With Collins back and Stroud out, efficiency projected as a concern and it was against the Browns — 42.9% catch rate and 5.4 yards per target. That’s the basis of my concern and why I don’t have Brown ranked as a top-30 play.

This matchup doesn’t scare me, but if the usage isn’t there and there is health risk at QB, Brown offers more paths to failure than to success, in my opinion. I’d rather bank on Brandin Cooks or a banged-up Jayden Reed.

Tight Ends

Dalton Schultz: There are a few moving pieces in this Houston offense, starting with the man under center, but Schultz was able to match a season-high 11 targets last week against the Cleveland Browns – a level of involvement that is encouraging to see (10 targets total in his previous three games).

How predictive that usage is remains to be seen. His first double-digit target game this season came seemingly out of nowhere (six targets total in the two weeks prior), and his second was followed by a four-game stretch that saw him average just four targets per game.

I skew on the optimistic side when it comes to Schultz (TE14), due to my lack of confidence in the WR2 role in this offense earning targets at a high rate with WR Tank Dell out. He’s not a must-play by any means, but if he’s available in your league, there’s a clearer path to him providing top-10 production than most others in his ranking tier.

Chigoziem Okonkwo: I’m not ready to project another RB Derrick Henry touchdown pass, but five-plus targets in four of five games is enough to land you on my TE radar.

In a perfect world, QB Will Levis is back under center to elevate the scoring equity of all involved in this offense. The Texans are a bottom-10 team in yards per pass attempt and no better than league average in an assortment of red-zone metrics.

There are certainly limitations in expectations when it comes to hitching your wagon to the Titans’ offense in any capacity. That much we know, but a TE who is capable of making plays with the ball in his hands and is getting a fair number of looks on a consistent basis is worth a look. That’s exactly what we have here.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Seattle Seahawks

• Spread: Seahawks -3.5
• Total: 41.5
• Steelers implied points: 19
• Seahawks implied points: 22.5

Quarterbacks

Geno Smith: I think you’re chasing your tail if you want to play Smith as a top-12 option. The rushing numbers are a thing of the past, his completion percentage is down five percentage points from a season ago, and he has just 17 TD tosses in 13 games.

I understand that this Steelers defense isn’t what it once was, but does it matter? Smith went through a three-game stretch earlier this season where he threw a total of two touchdowns when playing the Panthers, Giants, and Bengals.

It’s not impossible that he produces in this spot, I’d just rather ride the form of options like Derek Carr or Joe Flacco.

Running Backs

Najee Harris: I don’t have either Steelers RB ranked as a top-25 option due to their lack of overall offensive consistency. Harris ran hard last week, but he was held without a target, and his efficiency on the ground remains a question mark.

Thanks to the goal-line role, I have Harris as my slight favorite in this backfield, but don’t confuse that as to me saying that he’s deserving of being locked into lineups. I’d rather Zamir White or Clyde Edwards-Helaire this week, assuming that the starting RB is inactive come the weekend.

Jaylen Warren: The most explosive Steelers back averaged just 3.0 yards per carry last week, but Warren did catch five of six targets for 30 yards and held a 34-26 snap edge over Harris.

Warren has struggled to sustain a fantasy-viable touch count, but with 14 catches over his past three games, the PPR potential is certainly there. He’s a Flex option, though he carries a floor that is lower than Harris and other players in this tier (Gus Edwards and Jerome Ford types).

Kenneth Walker III: If there’s a player who I’m putting near-blind faith in volume with this week, it’s Walker. While he hasn’t been a top-30 RB in three of his past four games, Walker has 39 touches over the past two weeks and has shown enough explosive potential (20+ yard touch in three straight) recently to consider him capable of even more.

I expect the game script to work in K9’s favor, and that’s all the convincing I need to rank him as a strong RB2 with a reasonably clear path to a top-10 week.

Zach Charbonnet: Rookies are supposed to gain steam as the season progresses, but that’s pretty clearly not happening here. Charbonnet hasn’t been a top-40 RB in any of the three weeks since Walker returned to action, with his touch count dipping from 10 to four to three.

There’s no reason to give Charbonnet a second look this week, and if your season wraps after Sunday, Charbonnet can be cut as a strategic move. Add a secondary D/ST to give your opponent one fewer option if nothing else.

Wide Receivers

George Pickens: There’s nothing like finishing as fantasy’s second-highest-scoring receiver after finishing seven of the previous eight games as WR45 or worse. Pickens’ massive week came courtesy of just four receptions — they just happen to really count thanks to a pair of 65+ yard scores.

He doubled his touchdown count for the season last week and touched the painted area for the first time since October. While the Week 16 breakout was great, I’m refusing to chase.

MORE: Fantasy WR Start/Sit Week 17 — How Should You Handle Tee Higgins, Garrett Wilson, and George Pickens?

Pickens sits outside of my top 30 and is not an option. I’m not going out of my way to start with my fantasy championship on the line due to the floor that we’ve seen for the majority of this season.

Diontae Johnson: After scoring in three straight games, Johnson gave fantasy managers coal in Week 16 with a WR86 finish, his worst of the season.

In a normal DJ season, I’d be embracing the uptick in scoring equity, but this isn’t the volume vacuum that we’ve seen in the past. Since Week 9, Johnson hasn’t had a single game with five catches, leaving the door wide open for floor performances like what we saw last week.

I prefer Pickens to Johnson, but not by much. If one receiver is going to salvage an entire day with a single play, Pickens is my pick, and that upside is what I’m favoring in my ranks.

Neither is a must-start, as this offense laying an egg after an impressive outing is very much a possibility.

DK Metcalf: You’re playing Metcalf. He has righted the ship with four straight top-30 finishes and WR2 value in five of his past seven. The fact that he hasn’t seen more than six targets in a season-high three straight games is a red flag, but not enough to go running for the hills.

Metcalf is a player that can produce without elite volume. The floor is lower than I’d like, but with a ceiling that can determine championships, I’m playing him.

Tyler Lockett: In theory, a player with Lockett’s résumé, one who has seen at least seven targets in seven of nine games, should be locked into lineups. That’s not really the case (he’s my WR29) here, though, as the volume hasn’t meant a ton.

Lockett hasn’t scored in six straight games and has yet to finish consecutive games as a top-35 receiver this season.

The volume is enough to put him in the starter conversation, especially against a defense that allows over 72% of opponent touchdowns to be scored through the air (second highest). I just worry about the ceiling in a Smith-led offense that has to feed Metcalf and Walker.

You’re playing Lockett in PPR settings, whereas there is more thought into his status on your team in standard formats.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba: The rookie has shown enough this season to sell me long term on his stock, but for Week 17, I’ll pass. JSN hasn’t been a top-30 receiver in six of his past seven games despite a target floor that has proven to be higher than I assumed (7+ looks in three of the past four games).

If you’re in a deep league or one with unique lineup structures, I understand where Smith-Njigba could emerge as a Flex option, but outside of that, you can do better.

Tight Ends

Pat Freiermuth: Let’s move on here. Freiermuth simply isn’t capable of earning targets at a high enough rate to matter down the stretch of this season. With two running backs and two receivers that will garner more usage on a weekly basis, there’s no point in going this deep at the TE position.

Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos

• Spread: Broncos -5
• Total: 39
• Chargers implied points: 17
• Broncos implied points: 22

Running Backs

Austin Ekeler: The production has been lacking of late for this former fantasy God, but at least the role is still there — he held a 45-17 snap edge over Isaiah Spiller last week.

Ekeler was able to get loose for 100 yards and a touchdown against this porous Broncos run defense back in Week 14. While I wouldn’t set that stat line as the expectation in Week 17, it’s certainly within the range of outcomes.

Ekeler’s recent struggles result in a dip down the ranks, but his upside is pretty clearly above that of those who he shares an RB2 tier with. I’m cautiously starting Ekeler in most leagues, with the thought being that his role and matchup combination provides more hope than his ugly numbers of late provide reason for concern.

Javonte Williams: The floor has proven lower than it should be for Williams of late (23 total carries over past two weeks), which would scare me out of starting him if this was a negative matchup. But it’s not.

Williams has multiple catches in 13 of 14 games this season. Although he’s finished just one of his past six games better than RB24, there’s still room for hope down the stretch of this season.

In Week 14, when these teams first met, Williams had 20 touches. He’s my RB21 this week, sharing a tier with Ekeler and Devin Singletary among others.

Wide Receivers

Keenan Allen: Due to a heel injury suffered in Week 14, Allen has missed consecutive games and doesn’t sound especially close to returning (ruled out on Thursday last week after not practicing).

The 31-year-old receiver proved to have plenty of juice left in the tank with five top-five finishes at the position this season. This summer, he could be available at a reasonable price in drafts when you consider his age and the fact that he has missed significant time in consecutive seasons.

Joshua Palmer: If I can avoid the WR position for the Chargers I am, point blank period. Keenan Allen has officially been ruled out this week (it’s been clear for roughly a month that his season is more than likely over given the lack of organizational motivation at this point) and Palmer will join him on the sidelines after officially being ruled OUT following Friday’s practice.

Quentin Johnston and Jalen Guyton are the names for DFS managers to be aware of in a punt-WR build, but neither should be close to starting lineups in season-long Super Bowls.

Courtland Sutton: An early in concussion in Week 16 put Sutton’s status in question entering this week and has officially ruled him OUT this week.

Prior to the injury, he was a top-30 receiver in five of six games. In the first meeting with these Chargers, Sutton was able to score, but the 13.3% target share serves as a red flag for the WR1, who is now Jerry Jeudy.

MORE: Marvin Mims Jr. or Brandon Johnson Waiver Wire Week 17

Jerry Jeudy: On the bright side, Jeudy led the Broncos in targets the first time these teams met. On the not-so-bright side, he turned that usage into 16 glorious yards of production.

Jeudy has just one game this season with 75+ receiving yards and hasn’t scored since the team got back from their Week 9 bye.

Could Jeudy explode ala Mike Evans last season? Anything is possible in a strong matchup, but banking on an outlier performance is a tough sell with your fantasy title on the line.

With Sutton officially ruled out, Jeudy moved onto the Flex radar and while he isn’t a lineup lock, the recent usage and path to opportunities lands him just inside my top 30 at the position.

Marvin Mims is a deep league flier — I think the benching of Wilson hurts him more than the vacating of Sutton’s targets, but we know the skill set that he possesses and that has value in the right situation.

Tight Ends

Gerald Everett: If you’re streaming the TE position, you’re grasping for any optimistic trend that you can get. In the first two games with backup QB Easton Stick playing significant time, Everett posted a solid 22.2% target share. Then, last week against the Bills, the creativity of the “Bolts” with their versatile tight end was on full display.

Coming out of the first quarter break, a red zone screen pass out of a unique formation went his way, and it was followed on a scramble drill by Stick that resulted in Everett adapting his route and being tackled at the 1-yard line.

MORE: Gerald Everett a Top Week 17 TE Waiver Wire Target

You’re not going to find a perfect tight end on your wire, and Everett isn’t the exception. We’ve seen a capped yardage ceiling all season long (yet to reach 50 yards), and his next season with five touchdown catches will be his first.

Still, in an offense with limited options, Everett’s volume (8-plus targets in three straight – his three highest target totals of the season) appears safe. In a low-octane pass game, that role projects well in a PPR setting.

Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs

• Spread: Chiefs -7
• Total: 44
• Bengals implied points: 18.5
• Chiefs implied points: 25.5

Quarterbacks

Jake Browning: I was down on Browning heading into last week in Pittsburgh with Ja’Marr Chase (shoulder) out, and the process was fine. But, as a reminder, predicting game script is a dangerous thing.

With the Bengals down by 21 points less than 23 minutes into the game on Saturday, Browning was placed in a favorable game script, thus resulting in fantasy numbers that were better than his play on the field.

That’s consecutive 300-yard games for the rookie and five straight in which he has completed at least two-thirds of his passes. He’s looked better than any of us expected, and maybe that continues through this week, but in a tough matchup without a true alpha receiver, I’m still not close to comfortable in starting him.

Patrick Mahomes: The recent run of underachieving numbers is a pain, but there’s nothing actionable to do, especially if you’ve managed to navigate these performances of late.

MORE: What Is Happening With Patrick Mahomes? More Struggles Leave Fantasy Managers in Doubt for Championships

Mahomes ran for a season-high 53 yards on Monday against the Raiders, which is great to see. This Bengals defense has allowed 58 points to the Vikings and Steelers over the past two weeks, making this theoretically a great spot for this Chiefs offense to get right.

I’m starting Mahomes and trusting him with the fate of my fantasy squad; it’s just that simple.

Running Backs

Joe Mixon: He struggled last week (13 touches for 50 yards), but I’m not too worried about it because the matchup with Pittsburgh is a spot we saw give him a tough time earlier in the season.

In the past six games, Mixon’s average positional finish vs. the Steelers in two of them was RB35. Against the rest of the NFL? RB8.

Mixon out-snapped Chase Brown 38-14 last week, and with the lead role locked up in a limited offense that requires the ground game to open things up, Mixon is a player you can feel fine in starting as he looks to bounce back.

Chase Brown: Brown is far more important to the Bengals than he is to fantasy managers at this point. He has multiple catches in three straight games, but with his carry count trending in the wrong direction (9-8-7-4), it’s difficult to even rank Brown as a top-40 RB.

Brown is a threat to take a Browning screen for a big gain, that much we know. That said, he lacks a variety of ways to produce, and with a clear path to failure, Brown isn’t worth the risk.

Isiah Pacheco: It’s difficult to see Pacheco suiting up for this game after he was tested for a concussion last week in his return from a shoulder injury. The Chiefs would love to get their offense moving in the right direction by the end of the regular season, but having a healthy roster for their January games is their primary focus.

MORE: Should You Start Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Isiah Pacheco, or La’Mical Perine in Fantasy Football Week 17?

If Pacheco passes through protocols and is healthy enough to convince the Chiefs to play him, then I’ll be comfortable in starting him in the championship roster in which I have him.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire: I don’t love the idea of counting on Edwards-Helaire at this point in the proceedings, but his versatility has proven capable of offsetting his lack of rushing efficiency, and that’s enough to land him as a low-end RB2 in my Week 17 rankings.

Last five games: 33 carries for 93 yards (2.8 ypc) without a rush TD
Last three games: 11 targets and 135 receiving yards

Jerick McKinnon (groin) is on injured reserve, further paving the way to a strong usage spot for CEH against a defense that is bottom seven in both rushing yards per attempt and rushing yards per game.

It may not be comfortable, but playing Edwards-Helaire is the right percentage play if Pacheco is sidelined.

Wide Receivers

Tee Higgins: The final stat line was more than effective (five catches for 140 yards and a touchdown), but a 20% target share from a backup QB in a game without Chase isn’t exactly the type of target-earning trajectory that paints a promising picture heading into a potential shadow situation.

Higgins is a fine option this week but not one I’m counting on dictating matchup outcomes like he did last week. The 80-yard touchdown that drove his value isn’t exactly a play I’d call sustainable, and this Chiefs defense is a top-five unit in yards per attempt and pressure rate.

Consecutive big games are certainly encouraging, though consistency hasn’t been a staple of the Higgins profile this season. Be happy with what you’ve gotten of late but treat this week as a new week and understand that he is more of a middling WR2 in this spot due to the matchup than the WR1 he has produced like over the past two weeks.

Tyler Boyd: With 5+ targets in seven of his past eight games, Boyd’s path to low-end (though viable) PPR numbers is there on a team that figures to be playing from behind.

That said, you’re going into this decision with the understanding that “ceiling” is a word we in the industry simply don’t use in any Boyd analysis.

The veteran hasn’t posted a top-40 finish since Browning took over, making him more of an “I trust the rest of my roster, I just need someone to not mess it up” play than anything else in this final week of most fantasy leagues.

Rashee Rice: Following a pair of WR1 finishes, Rice was fantasy’s WR38 in what looked like a good spot against the Raiders on Monday. If he didn’t play a part in you getting eliminated from the playoffs, I’m on board with going back to Kansas City’s clear-cut WR1.

In the poor performance, Rice saw multiple red-zone targets again, including an end-zone target on a fourth-down situation. He was targeted on 29.3% of Mahomes’ throws, a role that I will happily take my chances with every single time.

Rice is a process play. The results weren’t there in Week 16, something that savvy fantasy managers won’t fret given the strong usage numbers. The rookie could be a significant difference-maker this week, and I’d recommend you give him the opportunity to shine!

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce: This Kansas City offense is beginning to feel like the NBA superstars in the original Space Jam that lost their talents to the aliens from Moron Mountain.

The bad news for that comp is that it took the Looney Toons and Michael Jordan to defeat the aliens. The good news is that we are talking about a fictional movie.

You’re not doing anything crazy when it comes to setting your lineup with Kelce. You’re playing him in this great spot and feeling very comfortable in doing so. Simple.

His recent rash of dropped passes and his TD drought obviously aren’t ideal, but you still have one of the few difference-makers at the position. You’re riding that train as far as it’ll take you.

For those curious, here are your definitive comparisons for Chiefs players to the NBA greats in the first Space Jam who had their skill sucked out of their bodies:

Travis Kelce/Charles Barkley: Personality is topped only by his numbers
Taylor Swift/Muggsy Bogues: Fan favorite
Patrick Mahomes/Patrick Ewing: Elite pedigree, HOF career
Harrison Butker/Shawn Bradley: One job to do

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings

• Spread: Vikings -1.5
• Total: 46
• Packers implied points: 23.8
• Vikings implied points: 22.3

Quarterbacks

Jordan Love: You would think that a developing QB with multiple TD passes in six of seven games would have me at least moderately excited, but Love simply doesn’t. The Packers have some nice developmental pieces on their offense and is one to watch moving forward, but against a Vikings defense that is trending in the right direction, it’s not for me.

Love is too sporadic with the deep passes and too reliant on them to make me comfortable rolling him out there in an important spot in anything but a picture-perfect matchup.

He ranks third in bad pass rate this season, posting a higher rate than luminaries like Zach Wilson and Kenny Pickett. He’s better than those guys, but the floor is similar, and that is too scary for me to consider him as a viable streamer in any single QB format.

Running Backs

Aaron Jones: He has returned starting-worthy fantasy numbers in both of his games back and by accounting for 88.8% of the backs’ rushing yards last week in the close win over the Panthers, Jones’ role as the lead Packers RB is as clear as it has been all season.

I have him ranked as a mid-level RB2 thanks to the role, though I am a little concerned about what we saw in the first meeting back in Week 8. Green Bay running backs had 13 carries for 40 yards with a long run of seven yards.

The versatility of Jones along with the scoring equity that he holds due to a variety of injuries at the receiver position makes him a must-start in most formats. I think it’s unlikely that he wins you a week with a breakout performance, but it’s just as unlikely that he flames out and costs you a chance at glory.

The best fantasy teams this time of year often are the ones that can avoid potholes and wait for the opposition to leave the door open at some point.

AJ Dillon: A broken thumb didn’t stop Dillon from vulturing a touchdown last week, but with his seven carries picking up just 12 yards, it’s clear that he is well behind Jones on the depth chart.

Dillon is nothing more than a handcuff at this point of the season, and with Jones healthy, that makes him dead weight. Feel free to move on or target a Flex player with more single-touch upside than Green Bay’s inefficient backup RB who carries an inconsistent role into a poor matchup.

Ty Chandler: Minnesota’s new lead back has scored in consecutive games, and while his eight carries last week won’t jump off the screen at you, consider that he’s accounting for a vast majority of the Vikings’ rushing yards.

If that doesn’t say “lead back,” I’m not sure what does. A role like that is difficult to come by these days, and with the Vikings expected to control this game, that touch count should improve dramatically.

I have Chandler ranked as an RB2 this week, and I feel good about having him elevated to that status for the final game of the fantasy season.

Alexander Mattison: In his return from an ankle sprain, Mattison was hardly used. He saw just two carries and wasn’t targeted a single time.

Minnesota hinted that they want Chandler to take the reins of this backfield, and they backed up that talk in Week 16. I think Mattison probably gets more work this week than last, but not nearly enough to matter in any format.

Wide Receivers

Jayden Reed: The rookie continues to battle injuries to his toe and chest, so keep tabs on Reed’s status via the PFN Fantasy News Tracker as we near lineup lock. He led the team with 83 receiving yards (more than double the output of any of his opponents) in the first meeting with the Vikings despite ranking third on the team in targets.

In that game, Minnesota simply had no answer for Reed. He averaged 13.8 yards per target, a rate that dwarfed the 4.3 number that his teammates posted.

Assuming that Reed is a full go, he’ll be ranked as my top Packers receiver and a strong Flex play. Should he sit, the door is wide open when it comes to targets in this offense, and that likely results in no one receiver being ranked near where I’d put Reed.

Christian Watson: A hamstring injury delayed Watson’s season debut, and another one has cost him three straight games. The Watson profile is encouraging long term in a Green Bay offense that is hoping to build around Love (15.0 yards per catch, scoring once every 5.7 touches for his career).

However, consistent hamstring issues for a receiver who relies heavily on speed is an obvious red flag.

My feeling was that Watson was being drafted too high this past summer due to an unsustainably efficient rookie campaign. But after an injury-marred season, there’s a chance that his ADP drops to a level in which I’m willing to invest in come 2024.

Romeo Doubs: We’ve seen the scores come in bunches for Doubs this season (three through three weeks to open the season and in four of five games out of the Week 6 bye), but with no more than five targets in four of his past five games, there are some smoke and mirrors to consider here.

If two of three banged-up Packers receivers are active, Doubs isn’t near my Flex radar. However, if two sit, his name gets submitted into the backend of the Flex discussion in a game in which I expect Green Bay to be playing catch-up in.

Justin Jefferson: Last week, the best receiver in our game today posted his fifth WR1 finish of his eight-game season and looked fully healthy in doing so.

With Jefferson operating at 100% capacity, I’m not worried about the lack of reliable secondary options in this offense — you’re playing him with the confidence in which you drafted him. He’s very capable of deciding your matchup for you against a Packers defense that has experienced more downs than ups as of late.

Jordan Addison: After his breakout Week 15 in Cincinnati (six catches for 111 yards and two TDs), Addison saw some early usage against the Lions but departed with an ankle injury and is unlikely to play this week.

Active or not, I don’t think it matters in terms of your starting lineup.

K.J. Osborn filled the production void last week (five catches for 95 yards and a touchdown), but with Jefferson looking to be the fully elite version of himself and Mullens being intercepted on 8.7% of his attempts over the past two weeks, I’m not exactly comfortable with betting on secondary options that don’t have consistent target-earning on their NFL résumé.

This is an offense that has some serious talent and will be one worth investing in this summer, but not one that I plan on being overweight in for Week 17.

Tight Ends

Tucker Kraft: The Packers are the perfect target for a TE streamer this time of year — they are a team that is still technically alive in the playoff chase and is trying to develop a young quarterback who is navigating a variety of receiver injuries. What more could you ask for?

MORE: Tucker Kraft Is the Top TE Streamer for Week 17

Kraft’s athletic profile has a way of shining through on a consistent basis (27+ yard catch in three straight games and in four of his past six), something that few offer at the position outside of the elite.

The Vikings’ defense is trending in the right direction, but that’s not enough to worry me about a prospect like this in a strong role!

T.J. Hockenson: If you survived Week 16 around Hockenson’s knee injury, congrats! He’s been among the elite producers at the position all season long, and your ability to navigate a playoff matchup despite an in-game injury speaks to the depth of the roster you’ve built.

This week is going to be easier — kind of. You’re going to be functioning without your elite playmaker at the tight end position, but at least you know it going into the week. You have time to formulate a plan, a plan that doesn’t include a direction replacement on this Vikings roster.

Among the players that are available options, these are my favorites that are available in many leagues …

Gerald Everett, Los Angeles Chargers (at Broncos)
Chigoziem Okonkwo, Tennessee Titans (at Texans)
Tyler Conklin, New York Jets (at Browns – tonight)

Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Setting DFS lineups? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer, Start/Sit Optimizer, and DFS Lineup Optimizer to help you make the right decision!