The Detroit Lions vs. Dallas Cowboys matchup on Saturday night could be one of the most exciting prime-time battles of the entire season. With both teams still having an outside shot of earning the No. 1 seed in the NFC, this is a must-win matchup for both. That, combined with some defensive lapses on both sides, could mean we see a high-octane encounter in AT&T Stadium.
Ahead of the Lions vs. Cowboys matchup, our NFL betting experts have given their predictions and picks as they identify where the value lies in the current odds and betting lines.
Detroit Lions vs. Dallas Cowboys Betting Lines
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- Spread
Cowboys -5.5 - Moneyline
Lions +200, Cowboys -240 - Total
52.5
Lions vs. Cowboys Predictions and Expert Picks
Ben Rolfe: The Dallas Cowboys are back at home, so we can lock them in to win, right? The Cowboys are perfect at home and have covered six of their seven games at home. I expect the Detroit Lions to be able to move the ball, but I expect the Cowboys to be equally comfortable on offense.
This could easily be a game that could top 60 or 70 points. I prefer the total to taking the Cowboys laying nearly a touchdown in what could be a shootout.
A secondary bet I was watching was a six-point teaser taking the Cowboys down to the ML and then bringing the total down to 46.5 and taking the over. With the line now at 5.5, you can earn a little bit back by taking the money line and only giving 5.5 points back while shifting the total down to 46.5.
Pick: Over 52.5 points
David Bearman: I think these teams are much closer than the six-point spread claims. However, Dallas is back home, where they are undefeated this season, and the Lions could be in celebration/letdown mode.
MORE: PFN’s FREE NFL Playoff Predictor
If these teams face each other in the postseason, my money will be on Detroit, but it’s hard to know just how they will react after clinching their first division title in 30 years and not much on the line.
Pick: Pass
Jason Katz: Once quite the scrambler, Dak Prescott has only run for two touchdowns this season. That makes the +400 odds appear to not be great, but not every game is created equal. There are reasons to like Prescott to run one in himself this week.
Tony Pollard has struggled at the goal line this season. He has seven goal-line carries on the season, yet he’s punched in just two touchdowns from within two yards. Last week’s failure against the Miami Dolphins was particularly egregious. It is the type of error coaches will see on film and feel compelled to try something else near the goal line in the next game.
Given how stout the Lions are at defending the run (they allow the fewest rushing yards per game to running backs), we could see one of two things. The Cowboys could opt to throw when near the goal line, creating potential scramble opportunities for Prescott. Or, if the Cowboys get to the one, they may call a QB sneak. Either way, I like Prescott’s chances of scoring this week.
Pick: Dak Prescott anytime touchdown (+400 at BetMGM)
Soppe: When Detroit has the ball, their star rookie running back is the story. Jahmyr Gibbs owns a 15.1% target share and a 76.1% catch rate for the season. While he has been plenty impressive on the ground, his separation is in the passing game, and that is where I’m attacking.
The Cowboys blitz at the ninth-highest rate this season and have missed the fewest tackles in the league.
Translation?
“Dink and dunk all you want — we are going to get our fair share of sacks, and when we don’t, we trust our team to make tackles in space.”
That’s why I’m betting on Gibbs’ catch total and not taking the bait with the yardage. His involvement seems safe, so even if the ‘Boys bottle him up, we have a good chance at getting home on this!
Pick: Jahmyr Gibbs over 3.5 receptions (-114 at FanDuel)
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