The Minnesota Vikings lost control of their playoff destiny in terms of the NFC North last week, but there still have a number of scenarios for making the postseason this season. The Vikings’ playoff chances took a big hit with that loss last week, especially as other teams around them emerged victorious, and now they are embroiled in a very tight race in the NFC Wild Card picture.
Let’s examine the Vikings’ potential scenarios for making the playoffs either as the winner of the NFC North or via the Wild Card route.
Vikings Playoff Chances | Week 16 Update
Note that this article was originally published on Dec. 24 at 8:30 a.m. ET before Sunday’s games began. The results of this week’s games are below and will continue to be updated throughout the day.
After all the games in Week 16, the Vikings are now the No. 8 seed in the NFC.
1 p.m. ET Games Update
Falcons (7-8) defeated Colts (8-7)
Seahawks (8-7) defeated Titans (5-10)
Packers (7-8) defeated Panthers (2-13)
Lions (11-4) defeated Vikings (7-8)
4 p.m. ET Games Update
Buccaneers (8-7) defeated Jaguars (8-7)
Bears (6-9) defeated Cardinals (3-12)
Christmas Day Update
Eagles (11-4) defeated Giants (5-10)
Ravens (12-3) defeated 49ers (11-4)
Keep reading below to see the playoff scenarios for the Vikings entering Week 16. And head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture.
What Are the Minnesota Vikings’ Playoff Chances and NFC North Scenarios Entering Week 16?
Heading into Sunday of Week 16, the Vikings’ playoff chances have dipped below 50%, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index. In terms of the NFC Wild Card race, the Vikings are behind both the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks in terms of their playoff chances.
Additionally, the Vikings have just a 4.9% chance of winning the NFC North this season. Minnesota is 7-7, three games back on the Detroit Lions with three games to play.
Therefore, the only conceivable scenario for the Vikings to win the division is to win out and hope the Lions lose to the Cowboys in Week 17.
In that scenario, the Vikings would defeat the Lions in Weeks 16 and 18, ensuring they have the head-to-head tiebreaker between the two teams. Therefore, a Vikings win in Week 17 combined with a Lions loss would be enough to see Minnesota win the division at 10-7.
What Are the Vikings’ Playoff Scenarios for the NFC Wild Card Picture?
There is some good news for Vikings fans in that Minnesota still controls their own destiny from a Wild Card perspective. If the Vikings win out and the Lions defeat the Cowboys in Week 17, Minnesota would be the sixth seed, potentially traveling to Detroit on Wild Card Weekend.
If they won out, the Vikings would have the NFL playoff tiebreaker advantage over the Rams and the Seahawks due to a superior conference record. As those are the only teams that can get to 10 wins, that would ensure the Vikings as the sixth seed in the NFC Wild Card picture.
MORE: NFL Week 16 Playoff Bracket
In Week 17, the Vikings play the Packers. If they win, all is good, as they would stop the Packers from getting to 9-8 and hold a head-to-head in any tie at 8-9. If they lose to Green Bay but win their two games against Detroit, Minnesota would still be second in the NFC North, thanks to a superior conference record.
If the Vikings do drop a game, they would also need the Seahawks and Rams to drop one. As Minnesota has defeated both the New Orleans Saints and the Atlanta Falcons, they would have a tiebreaker over each of them. They also assured of having the best conference record in any 9-8 three-team tiebreaker scenario not involving the Rams.
If Minnesota, Green Bay, Los Angeles, Seattle, and either Atlanta or New Orleans were tied at 9-8, it would come down to the Vikings, Rams, and either NFC South team. The NFC South team would be eliminated on conference record, and it would come down to the Vikings and Rams.
The Vikings are assured to have the advantage over the Rams when it comes to record against common games. Thus, as long as the Rams and Seahawks do not both get to 10 wins, the Vikings can make the playoffs as either the sixth or seventh seed if they finish the year 9-8.
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