Not all fantasy football decisions are simple. Sure, starting someone like Detroit Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown is something you’re doing weekly, but those decisions at the top of the board aren’t usually the difference in your tight matchups.
It’s the fantasy start ’em, sit ’em quandaries that have you waking up in a cold sweat that ultimately make a big difference. I know I can’t be the only person that happens to.
Fantasy Start ‘Em Picks for Week 16
Below are my thoughts on some players that have been oft-asked about within the PFN Fantasy Discord and on X (formerly known as Twitter).
Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals (at CHI)
We’ve seen splash plays from Kyler Murray since returning from injury, and it’s enough to sell me on using him in this spot against a Chicago Bears defense that is stronger against the run than the pass.
Has Murray’s production been sporadic? Sure, but with 45+ opportunities in two of his past three games, the upside is borderline elite.
Murray has yet to throw for multiple scores in a game this season, but with over 68% of TDs scored against Chicago coming through the air — the fifth-highest mark in the league — that flaw could get ironed out and pave the way for a ceiling performance.
Murray is a top-10 play for me and a starter in all formats per our PFN Consensus Rankings. That said, his floor is a little concerning, which is why he’s my second favorite QB in this game.
Ezekiel Elliott, RB, New England Patriots (at DEN)
In the two weeks since Rhamondre Stevenson’s injury, Ezekiel Elliott has managed to run for just 93 yards on 33 carries. Per the Week 16 Cheat Sheet, not a single one of those attempts has gained more than 12 yards.
The lack of efficiency on the ground isn’t exactly new for Zeke and is something that figures to continue given his lack of explosiveness at this point in his career — his last 15+ yard run came in October. That said, Elliott has caught 12 passes for 93 yards and a touchdown in those two games.
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Zeke has essentially filled the exact fantasy-friendly role of Stevenson. Elliott has finished as RB1 and RB33 in his two weeks as the New England Patriots’ lead back.
Splitting the difference makes plenty of sense in this plus matchup where the Patriots should be committed to the ground game for all four quarters.
Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets (vs. WAS)
Garrett Wilson saw a season-low four targets last week, and it resulted in his fifth finish outside of the top 40 receivers.
Of course, there is the other side of that coin that has Wilson finishing four weeks as a top-20 WR.
The Washington Commanders allow 30.2 points per game — the only defense allowing even 27 ppg — so I’m more likely to bet on Wilson’s potential than to get caught up in the downside that naturally comes as a part of this QB committee situation.
Wilson isn’t likely to be the top-12 WR that you drafted him to be this summer, but I do have confidence in him as a WR2 this week. I rank him in the same tier as Tee Higgins and Davante Adams, other top receivers on their team with question marks at QB.
Isaiah Likely, TE, Baltimore Ravens (at SF)
Can we stop it now? Isaiah Likely was left on far too many waiver wires coming out of the Week 13 bye. In the two games since, all he has done is reward those who made the addition with 10 catches on 13 targets for 153 yards and a pair of touchdowns.
Whether it’s bailing Lamar Jackson out in times of stress or creative usage to leverage his size-speed combination, Likely is a certified top-10 tight end that you can feel good about playing.
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Of course, this matchup isn’t great, and the San Francisco 49ers’ low blitz rate could allow them to bracket Likely in a way that more aggressive defenses like the Los Angeles Rams and Jacksonville Jaguars haven’t done over the past two weeks.
There’s a floor concern with every TE in the sport, but Likely’s unique skill set and glove-like fit into this offensive scheme puts him in a good spot to be trusted at this critical juncture of your fantasy season.
Fantasy Sit ‘Em Picks for Week 16
Sam Howell, QB, Washington Commanders (at NYJ)
Jacoby Brissett took over late last week against the Rams and looked good, but the team made it clear following the loss that Sam Howell was still their guy.
Every quarterback in the league has a stinker. That’s more of a fact than an opinion. Howell had posted six straight top-10 finishes before the mess that was Week 15, so I’m not worried about his ability to produce the goods.
I am, however, worried about a defense that ranks top five in red-zone touchdown prevention and yards per pass attempt.
This Howell run has been a good one for QB streamers, but in a tough spot this week and another brutal matchup on New Year’s Eve against the 49ers, his time as a usable fantasy asset has come to an end.
Gus Edwards, RB, Baltimore Ravens (at SF)
Gus Edwards is set to assume the lead duty in this potent Baltimore Ravens offense due to the Keaton Mitchell injury. With 11 scores this season, Edwards should be viewed as a low-end RB2 this week, even in a difficult matchup.
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The touchdown equity isn’t going anywhere, though he needs to find paydirt to matter due to his lack of versatility (29 catches in 66 career games) and recent struggles with efficiency (under 3.5 yards per carry over his past five games).
- 2023 average finish when Edwards scores: RB12
- 2023 average finish when Edwards doesn’t score: RB43
Can you trust the Ravens RBs vs. the 49ers? Edwards is my clear-cut top option, and this offense comes with potential, but I’m looking for reasons to Flex someone else.
Jordan Addison, WR, Minnesota Vikings (vs. DET)
Sometimes, the universe just aligns. Additionally, sometimes, it’s important to note such situations as a way to highlight a greater point.
2022, K.J. Osborn
- Height: 5’11”
- Week 15 breakout (on a Saturday): 10 catches for 157 yards and one TD (26.7 FP)
- Games 11-13: 16.8 half-PPR fantasy points
2023, Jordan Addison
- Height: 5’11”
- Week 15 breakout (last Saturday): Six catches for 111 yards and two TDs (26.1 FP)
- Games 11-13: 16.5 half-PPR fantasy points
Weird, right? I’m not suggesting that we should have seen it coming; I just found it interesting. Another part that I found interesting (and scary) was the encore performance.
- Osborn Week 16, 2022: 3.2 fantasy points, 8.5% target share
Both of Addison’s touchdowns last week came with a high degree of difficulty and/or luck, plays that are tough to use in a big way when projecting forward.
Was I impressed with Nick Mullens at points last week? Yes, but some of the concerns I voiced before Justin Jefferson’s return when it comes to Addison remain.
Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Setting DFS lineups? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer, Start/Sit Optimizer, and DFS Lineup Optimizer to help you make the right decision!
