The Dallas Cowboys‘ outlook attempts to spin forward what we saw in the blowout loss last week against the Bills for fantasy football, while the Miami Dolphins‘ preview centers around their two-headed monster of a backfield.
Dallas Cowboys at Miami Dolphins
- Spread: Dolphins -1.5
- Total: 51.5
- Cowboys implied points: 25
- Dolphins implied points: 26.5
Quarterbacks
Dak Prescott: I think we can safely ignore what happened last week in Buffalo — a game where the Cowboys were bullied and held the ball for under 25 minutes.
Was that game concerning for Dallas’ big-picture hopes? It was, but it doesn’t impact how I’m viewing him as a fantasy commodity this week, which is as a top-five QB.
Prescott had seven straight games with multiple TD passes prior to the disaster last week, and I think he has a good chance to rediscover that form in this spot. Dak has 20+ rushing yards in two of his past three games after posting just two such performances this season prior, giving him a path to a few bonus points when it matters most for you.
Tua Tagovailoa: Not all good QB performances are viable for fantasy, and Tagovailoa’s Week 15 was more proof of that. He completed 21 of 24 passes without Tyreek Hill active in a difficult matchup, but 22 quarterbacks finished the week with more fantasy points.
Don’t get me wrong, there is still plenty of risk in this profile. But last week was more encouraging from a projection standpoint than his fantasy-point total hints at.
This season, Tagovailoa has as many top-10 finishes as he does weeks checking in outside of the top 20 (five apiece). The fact that he has completed over 69% of his passes in five straight games is encouraging and should give you enough confidence to rank him as a top-12 option in this spot.
Running Backs
Tony Pollard: I thought he ran just fine last week in Buffalo (11 carries for 52 yards), but Dallas trailing for every one of their 57 offensive snaps made it a tough script for Pollard to pay off our pregame optimism.
MORE: PFN’s FREE NFL Playoff Predictor
Prior to the ugly Week 15 game, Pollard had been a top-20 RB in four straight games. I expect him to assume that form this week with the game being more competitive. He remains the clear lead back in an offense that we trust to be in scoring position on a consistent basis — that’s a profile I’m comfortable in investing in with my fantasy fate on the line.
Rico Dowdle: Is his destiny to be 2022 Tony Pollard for the 2024 Cowboys working behind Tony Pollard? That could well be the case, but we’ll dive into that situation over the winter months.
For now, Dowdle’s talent doesn’t have a path to anything close to consistent production.
- 65-18-47-26-43-21-60
Those are Dowdle’s positional finishes over his past seven. There are a few viable weeks in there, but given the scary numbers that pop up every other game, counting on the rookie in a must-win setting is a risk I’m not willing to take.
Raheem Mostert: There are a ton of elite running backs that will go through their career without a four-game stretch in which they score seven times. Mostert has done it twice in a single season and is the proud owner of the Dolphins’ single-season scrimmage TD record now with 20.
In the shutout win over the Jets last week, Mostert provided strong fantasy value without efficiency (2.8 ypc) or versatility (his two targets resulted in one yard). He’s relying on scoring, but he’s doing it in an elite role with arguably the most potent offense on the planet.
Mostert has been held to single-digit yards receiving in eight straight games, which gives him access to a floor that is lower than other RBs ranked alongside him. As long as you’re aware that his role isn’t bulletproof, there’s no reason to consider Mostert as anything less than an RB1.
His average positional finish in his past three games with a healthy De’Von Achane is RB10, and Mostert projects to keep that value this week, even in a difficult matchup.
De’Von Achane: Father Time is undefeated, and the win rate of volume isn’t far behind.
As good as Achane is, the rookie only has one game with more than 12 touches since the 70-point rout over the Broncos. That has left the door open for him to not return the value he was providing managers with early in the season (consecutive finishes outside of the top 25).
This is exactly why fantasy analysts preach volume while NFL analysts focus on raw talent. Achane is still very much a valuable piece to what the Dolphins want to do, but they aren’t interested in making him a fantasy superstar. Rather, they want to blend their backfield in the way they see best fit to win football games.
MORE: Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane Start/Sit Week 16
Achane remains a low-end fantasy starter due to do one-touch upside that he has flashed on multiple occasions, but his role isn’t likely to change. He has struggled to return plus value in each of the past two weeks against strong run defenses, and with two more on tap to round out the fantasy season, I’m expecting more of the same.
Achane’s my RB25, ranking around struggling star RBs that may have less upside due to offensive limitations but own more consistent roles and paths to strong volume (Saquon Barkley and Austin Ekeler).
You’re playing Achane. However, banking on him to be the league winner that he looked like he could be back in the first month of the season isn’t something I’d recommend.
Wide Receivers
CeeDee Lamb: We were close to getting a down performance from Lamb last week in the blowout loss, but a garbage time three-yard touchdown rush saved the day for those with him rostered in a must-win spot.
Even in a “down” game, per the Week 16 Cheat Sheet, Lamb caught seven balls and saw a 31.3% target share. That’s not a bad worst-case scenario for a player who owns an elite ceiling. Lamb hasn’t finished worse than WR19 in a single game since Week 5, making him one of the five most consistent performers in the game.
What we saw from the Cowboys last week was a blip on the radar. They’re going to bounce back sooner than later, and Lamb will return elite fantasy value when that occurs.
Brandin Cooks: After scoring in five of seven games and offering up strong WR2/Flex value, Cooks has turned 11 targets into 47 yards over the past two weeks in spots that were deemed favorable (vs. PHI, at BUF).
So what version of Cooks is the real version? I fear that the recent one is closer to what we can expect due to his high-end production coming on the back of efficiency as opposed to volume. For the season, he’s earned more than six targets just twice this season, making the floor production that we’ve seen of late not a serious outlier.
Cooks is flirting with the top 30 at the position in my ranks for this week. Given how Prescott has played for the most part over the last two months, there’s a path to production that matters. But without opportunity upside, the ceiling isn’t that of a week winner.
Tyreek Hill: The play for 2k took a hit last week as an ankle injury sidelined Hill for the win over the Jets. Cheetah needs to average 152.7 receiving yards over the final three weeks this season to become the first player with 2,000 in a season.
MORE: Tyreek Hill Injury Update — The Latest on Miami Dolphins Star WR
As good as he has been this year, he hasn’t had a three-game stretch like that since November 2020.
Jaylen Waddle: How would Waddle step up in a seemingly tough matchup with this passing game’s Batman out of the fold?
- First half: 118 yards yards, touchdown, 41.2% target share
Yeah, I’d say he’s plenty capable of handling an extended role should he be called upon down the stretch.
There seems to be general optimism surrounding Hill, and that’ll return Waddle back to his WR2, which isn’t the end of the world when you consider that we’ve seen a secondary pass catcher earn double-digit targets against the Cowboys in three of their past four (Jaxon Smith-Njigba, DeVonta Smith, and Curtis Samuel).
Tight Ends
Jake Ferguson: The second-year tight end was only able to give his fantasy managers 44 yards on eight targets in the blowout loss in Buffalo last week, but you’re overthinking things if you’re considering pivoting at the TE position.
Even in a down game, Ferguson finished with a 25% target share and accounted for 28.6% of Dallas receptions. He’s caught at least five passes in back-to-back-to-back games and should be considered a lineup lock — he’s my TE6 this week and lives in the second tier of the position for me.
Should You Start Brock Purdy or Tua Tagovailoa?
Purdy holds the edge in accuracy, health of playmakers, and consistency. The concern, obviously, is a tough matchup, but it’s not as if Tagovailoa has an easy matchup.
Purdy’s understanding of this Kyle Shanahan offense is elite, and that elevates his floor to a level that Tagovailoa has yet to show us. I’ve been impressed with Tagovailoa’s overall level of play this season, but the fantasy production hasn’t always lined up, and that has him floating around QB10 in my ranks this week while Purdy is in the top-five conversation.
Should You Start Gus Edwards or De’Von Achane?
Give me Achane here. It’s pretty clear that the Dolphins view Raheem Mostert as their lead back, but there’s enough yardage equity on this offense to support a pair of explosive backs.
Edwards figures to assume the lead role in Baltimore with Keaton Mitchell sidelined, and while the volume should be there, are we sure he does much with it?
Edwards has been a touchdown-reliant fantasy option all season, and that has me fading him against the defense that allows the fewest red-zone trips in the league.
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