The Indianapolis Colts‘ outlook sorts through a handful of impactful injuries for fantasy football, while the Atlanta Falcons‘ fantasy preview discusses the usage of Bijan Robinson.
Indianapolis Colts at Atlanta Falcons
- Spread: Falcons -1
- Total: 44
- Colts implied points: 21.5
- Falcons implied points: 22.5
Quarterbacks
Gardner Minshew: Reports on the broadcast last week talked about Minshew’s summer pickleball success against overmatched soccer moms. He similarly treated the Steelers despite playing most of the game without either of his top two running backs and his WR1.
Last week, Minshew averaged 11.9 yards per completion and threw three touchdown passes for the first time in 1,182 days. He wasn’t perfect, but he made the most of what he had and produced against a defense that could hold opponents in check.
This isn’t a great matchup and that keeps Minshew out of my top 12, especially if the health of his playmakers is compromised. He’s an option in two-QB formats thanks to his form and the fact that the Falcons are routinely challenged down the field.
Running Backs
Jonathan Taylor: This thumb injury has cost Taylor three straight games, but there is general optimism surrounding his recovery, making a Week 16 return to action a possibility.
If that is indeed the case, I’ll be not only projecting him to lead this backfield in touches but to do so with ease. In his three games pre-injury, Taylor scored four times and averaged 20.7 touches per game.
MORE: Should You Start the Colts’ RBs vs. the Falcons?
This Falcons defense is top 10 in yards per play, yards per rush, and red-zone TD prevention rate, but a high-usage JT is a fantasy starter. Where exactly he falls in the ranks should he play depends on Moss’ health, but he’ll be in my top 25, regardless.
Is it a leap of faith at this point in the season? To a degree, yes, but at the running back position, you’re chasing talent and volume — good luck rostering 2-3 backs with a better combination than Taylor.
Zack Moss: We thought that Moss had a real chance at being the story of the fantasy postseason following the Taylor injury. After a pair of high-usage, yet underwhelming, performances, Moss was on his way to providing patient fantasy managers with what they deserved — elite production (seven touches for 33 yards and a touchdown through the first 16 minutes).
On that TD catch, however, Moss was the victim of a horse-collar tackle that resulted in an arm injury that kept him out for the remainder of the game.
He should still be viewed as the second in command of this offense, but Moss’ injury — combined with Taylor’s health trending up and the two backs behind him producing against the Steelers last week — all but guarantees that he won’t be the league-winner we had hoped down the stretch.
Yet, if both Taylor and Moss miss this game, Trey Sermon or Tyler Goodson could be worth an add off the waiver wire.
Bijan Robinson: After four straight top-20 finishes at the position and gaining all of our confidence in a major way, Robinson picked up 14 yards on eight touches against the worst team in football, hardly out-snapping Tyler Allgeier in the process (30-26).
So now what?
Suggesting you have confidence in how Arthur Smith will deploy his weapons is a flat-out lie. Robinson is pretty clearly the most talented option, and in a coin-flip game against a defense struggling in the red zone, he should be ranked as an elite option.
I can’t get there, yet there’s no way I’m benching him, given the upside in this matchup and the fact that we’ve seen plus-usage in the not-so-distant past. Robinson isn’t a top-10 play for me, but I prefer him to other struggling stars like Derrick Henry and Austin Ekeler.
You made a bet on talent when you spent a first-round pick on the rookie, and if you’re still fighting for a league championship, you’re likely doing the same this week.
Wide Receivers
Michael Pittman Jr.: Through 14 weeks, Pittman was the owner of an elite 31.3% target share and was tracking for another big week against the Steelers before being lit up by Damontae Kazee, a hit that resulted in the immediate ejection of Pittsburgh’s safety.
In general, the average recovery process from a concussion has been just shy of nine days, putting Pittman on the wrong side of questionable as we near the kickoff of Week 16. Of course, the “average” timeline doesn’t apply to everyone, so make sure you are keeping tabs on the PFN Fantasy News Tracker.
MORE: D.J. Montgomery Fantasy Waiver Wire Week 16
That said, you’d be wise to make alternative plans. If he passes through all of the protocols, you play him. Simple. The hard part is replacing him, something that savvy fantasy managers will plan for well in advance of the weekend.
D.J. Montgomery (three catches through 14 weeks) made some splash plays as his role was expanded following the injury last week and is an interesting stash option. I hope that you’ve built up enough depth throughout the season to have a more reliable option as your plug-in option, but big plays from Montgomery are not a fluke.
Drake London: Following a career game against the Buccaneers in Week 14 (10 catches for 172 yards), London let you down in a major way with just two catches for 24 yards against the lowly Panthers on Sunday.
To call his yardage totals over his past five games sporadic would be the understatement of the year. Per the Week 16 Cheat Sheet:
- Week 10 at Cardinals: 36 yards
- Week 12 vs. Saints: 91 yards
- Week 13 at Jets: 8 yards
- Week 14 vs. Buccaneers: 172 yards
- Week 15 at Panthers: 24 yards
If you think you have a read on this situation, you’re sharper than I. Only 43.2% of touchdowns scored against the Colts this season have come through the air (second-lowest rate), so you’re not likely to get bailed out by a score.
London isn’t a top-30 option for me this week — I’d rather bet on either Ravens WR in a tough matchup or Chris Godwin.
Tight Ends
Kyle Pitts: I can’t do it. I can’t look my wife in the eyes and tell her that I lost my fantasy league (and thus her fancy dinner date) because I played Pitts when it mattered most.
MORE: PFN’s FREE NFL Playoff Predictor
Pitts hasn’t caught more than four passes in a game since Week 5, and his career catch rate is under 58%. His target count has dipped in consecutive weeks and has been five or less in six of his past eight.
There’s no guarantee that a tight end in Atlanta will produce viable numbers. Even if we had that as a fact, there’s no certainty that Pitts is the beneficiary.
Should You Start Gabe Davis or Josh Downs?
Downs could see his role expand in a significant way if Michael Pittman is out/limited, and I’m a buyer of his talent. That lands his mean projection ahead of the struggling Davis and, thus, higher in my Week 16 ranks, though this decision does truly come down to the nature of your semifinal matchup.
If things are projected to be close, Downs is less likely to lose you your week with a dud performance. However, he is also less likely to win you your week, so if you’re working with a scrappy team that is a significant underdog, I’d take my chances on Davis.
Check out the Buffalo Bills vs. Los Angeles Chargers Same Game Parlay article for a deep dive into why this has the potential to be one of “those” weeks from Davis, despite his recent struggles.
Should You Start Austin Ekeler or Bijan Robinson?
Talk about a pair of fantasy first-rounders who are limping to the finish line. Robinson saw his usage spike early in the month, but things regressed last week and are no certainty to bounce back this week.
While I wouldn’t label the rookie as “safe,” he has shown a burst this month that we simply haven’t seen for a while now from Ekeler. As limited as the Falcon’s offense is, the Chargers might have less potential and, thus, even less scoring equity for Ekeler. Neither is near where I had them ranked this preseason, but Robinson gets the edge in terms of the Week 16 outlook.
Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Setting DFS lineups? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer, Start/Sit Optimizer, and DFS Lineup Optimizer to help you make the right decision!
