Battes for the NFL‘s top conference seeds — and a resulting first-round playoff bye — are typically tight heading into the final month of the regular season. This year’s races are no different.
With three weeks left in the 2023 campaign, the AFC’s top seed is still up for grabs. The Baltimore Ravens and Miami Dolphins are batting for home-field advantage and will face each other in Week 17. Meanwhile, the Kansas City Chiefs‘ chances of securing the No. 1 are no longer possible due to their loss to the Las Vegas Raiders.
AFC No. 1 Seed Scenarios | Week 16 Update
Note that this article was originally published on Sunday, Dec. 24 at 8:35 a.m. before Sunday’s games began. The results of this week’s games are below and will continue to be updated throughout the day.
With Week 16 complated, the Baltimore Ravens remain the No. 1 seed in the AFC. The Miami Dolphins are No. 2, the Kansas City Chiefs are No. 3, and the Jacksonville Jaguars are No. 4. The loss by the Chiefs on Christmas has eliminated them from AFC #1 seed contention.
Sunday 4 p.m. ET Games Update
Dolphins (11-4) defeated Cowboys (10-5)
Buccaneers (8-7) defeated Jaguars (8-7)
Christmas Day Update
Raiders (7-8) defeated Chiefs (9-6)
Ravens (12-3) defeated 49ers (11-4)
AFC Standings
1. Baltimore Ravens (12-3)
2. Miami Dolphins (11-4)
3. Kansas City Chiefs (9-6)
4. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-7)
Keep reading below to see the playoff scenarios for the AFC’s No. 1 seed entering Week 16. Additionally, head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change both the playoff picture and the current NFL playoff bracket.
How Can the Baltimore Ravens Clinch the AFC’s No. 1 Seed?
The Ravens defeated the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday Night Football in Week 16, moving Baltimore to 11-3 on the season and giving Lamar Jackson and Co. a one-game lead over the Dolphins in the AFC standings.
John Harbaugh’s club controls its destiny regarding the No. 1 seed. If the Ravens win out, they will win the AFC and enter the playoffs with home-field advantage.
Baltimore has played as well as nearly any team in the NFL this season, but it’s worth taking a look at their remaining schedule, which ranks as the most difficult slate of closing games in the league:
- Week 16: at SF
- Week 17: vs. MIA
- Week 18: vs. PIT
The Ravens cannot clinch the No. 1 seed in Week 16. If Baltimore wins this week while Miami loses, the Ravens would have a two-game lead with two weeks left in the regular season.
But the Dolphins would still have a chance to usurp Baltimore by beating them in Week 17, then defeating the Buffalo Bills while hoping the Ravens lose to the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 18.
MORE: NFL Week 16 Playoff Bracket
As long as Baltimore goes at least 2-1 to close the season, it will not vacate the No. 1 slot in the AFC unless Miami wins out.
The Ravens can even afford to go 1-2 to end the year, as long as their sole loss is not against the Dolphins in Week 17.
How Can the Miami Dolphins Clinch the AFC’s No. 1 Seed?
The Dolphins still have a chance to claim the No. 1 seed, but their odds are well behind the Ravens’. While ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) gives Baltimore a 63% chance of earning a first-round bye, Miami’s odds sit at just one in five.
But fear not, Dolphins fans: Because Miami and Baltimore will play each other this season, the Fins still control their own No. 1 seed destiny.
Tua Tagovailoa’s club is essentially facing the inverse of the Ravens’ path to the top seed. Defeating Baltimore in Week 17 is non-negotiable; if the Dolphins don’t win that game, they’ll have no shot at securing the No. 1 seed.
Miami will also need to win at least one more game on top of that victory over the Ravens. But that’s assuming Baltimore loses out. If the Ravens beat the San Francisco 49ers in Week 16 or the Steelers in Week 18, the Dolphins will need to win all three of its remaining contests.
Here’s Miami’s remaining schedule:
- Week 16: vs. DAL
- Week 17: at BAL
- Week 18: vs. BUF
How Can the Kansas City Chiefs Clinch the AFC’s No. 1 Seed?
Editor’s Note: The Chiefs have been eliminated from contention for the AFC’s top seed after their loss on Christmas Day to the Raiders.
Patrick Mahomes is no stranger to the AFC’s No. 1 seed. The Chiefs have landed a playoff bye three times since Mahomes entered the NFL (2018, 2020, 2022), winning the Super Bowl twice in those three seasons.
Grabbing the top seed will be more challenging this year, given that Kansas City is two games behind the Ravens and one game behind the Dolphins.
Baltimore already has 11 wins, two more than Kansas City. The two clubs will not face each other this season. As such, the Chiefs must match the Ravens’ record and finish with a better mark within the conference. Baltimore is currently 7-3 in the AFC; Kansas City is 7-2.
The Chiefs will also need to win one more game than the Dolphins down the stretch to secure the top seed, but they won’t need to worry about conference record with Miami. Kansas City already defeated the Dolphins in Week 9, giving Andy Reid’s team a head-to-head tiebreaker. As such, they’ll be rooting for Miami to beat Baltimore in Week 17.
Kansas City’s best route to the No. 1 seed is to win out and hope for help. Here’s the Chiefs’ remaining schedule:
- Week 16: vs. LV
- Week 17: vs. CIN
- Week 18: at LAC
Want to predict the rest of the 2023 season with our FREE NFL Playoff Predictor? Looking for the most up-to-date NFL standings? What about a breakdown of team depth charts or the NFL schedule? Pro Football Network has you covered with that and more!