Despite working through four different starting quarterbacks before settling on veteran Joe Flacco as their answer, the Cleveland Browns are 9-5 entering this weekend’s action. They’d be the AFC’s fifth seed if the playoff started today, and they still have a shot at winning the AFC North.
What do the Browns’ playoff scenarios look like in Week 16?
Cleveland Browns Playoff Chances | Week 16 Update
Note that this article was originally published on Sunday, Dec. 24 at 8:55 a.m. before Sunday’s games began. The results of this week’s games are below and will continue to be updated throughout the day.
After Week 16, the Browns remain in second place in the AFC North and are still the AFC’s No. 5 seed.
Saturday Games Update
Steelers (8-7) defeated Bengals (8-7)
Bills (9-6) defeated Chargers (5-10)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET Games Update
Browns (10-5) defeated Texans (8-7)
Falcons (7-8) defeated Colts (8-7)
Sunday 4 p.m. ET Games Update
Dolphins (11-4) defeated Cowboys (10-5)
Buccaneers (8-7) defeated Jaguars (8-7)
Sunday Night Football Update
Patriots (4-11) defeated Broncos (7-8)
Christmas Day Update
Raiders (7-8) defeated Chiefs (9-6)
Eagles (11-4) defeated Giants (5-10)
Ravens (12-3) defeated 49ers (11-4)
Keep reading below to see the playoff scenarios for the Browns entering Week 16. Additionally, head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture and the current NFL playoff bracket.
Cleveland Browns’ Playoff Chances Entering Week 16
While the Browns haven’t officially clinched a playoff spot, they’re overwhelmingly likely to enter the tournament. ESPN’s Football Power Index gives Cleveland a 91.3% chance to make the postseason — the best odds for any AFC team not currently leading its division.
As the fifth seed in the conference standings, the Browns have a half-game advantage over the Buffalo Bills at 9-6, a one-game advantage over the Indianapolis Colts, Houston Texans, and Jacksonville Jaguars at 8-6, a 1.5-game lead over the 8-7 Pittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals, and a two-game lead over the Denver Broncos at 7-7.
Entering the week, Cleveland could have potentially punched its ticket to the playoffs in Week 16, but HC Kevin Stefanksi’s squad needed to defeat the Houston Texans on Sunday and receive some help from other clubs around the NFL. All eight of those scenarios are off the table following the Steelers and Bills victories on Saturday.
Of course, with so many AFC teams bunched between seven and nine wins, things could change quickly if the Browns start losing games. That’s especially true, given that two of Clverland’s three remaining games are against fellow Wild Card hopefuls in the Texans and Bengals.
Can the Browns Still Win the AFC North?
Technically, Cleveland still has a shot at the AFC North crown.
However, given that the Browns are two games behind the Baltimore Ravens with three weeks remaining in the regular season, its odds are understandably thin.
FPI gives Kevin Stefanski’s club just an 8.4% chance of overtaking Baltimore.
MORE: NFL Week 16 Playoff Bracket
Cleveland could be eliminated from division contention as soon as this week. If the Browns lose to or tie the Texans on Sunday, and the Ravens beat the San Francisco 49ers on Monday night, Cleveland will have no shot to win the AFC North.
For the Browns to have a chance at the division title, they’ll need to win out and hope Baltimore loses at least two of its three remaining games.
Cleveland closes out with the Texans, New York Jets, and Bengals. Meanwhile, the Ravens will face the NFL’s hardest schedule to end the year, including matchups against the 49ers, Miami Dolphins, and Steelers.
If the Browns win out and the Ravens lose out, Cleveland will win the AFC North belt. Things will get more complicated if Baltimore only drops two games, while the Ravens win out.
In that scenario, the Browns and Ravens would finish the season with identical 12-5 records. The NFL’s first two playoff tiebreakers wouldn’t be of help. Baltimore and Cleveland split their season series and would have matching 4-2 marks inside the AFC North.
At that point, the division would be decided based on the Ravens’ and Browns’ records against common opponents. Baltimore is currently 8-2 with two games remaining against common opponents, while Cleveland is 7-3 with two remaining.
If the Browns win out, the only way the Ravens could match Cleveland’s record in common games while losing two of their next three is if their only defeat comes to the Dolphins, who the Browns will not play in 2023.
However, that scenario would involve the Ravens losing to the Steelers in Week 18, shifting their division record to 3-3 vs. the Browns’ 4-2, thus giving Cleveland the division.
Want to predict the rest of the 2023 season with our FREE NFL Playoff Predictor? Looking for the most up-to-date NFL standings? What about a breakdown of team depth charts or the NFL schedule? Pro Football Network has you covered with that and more!
