The Baltimore Ravens are one of four NFL teams that have already clinched a playoff berth, joining the NFC’s San Francisco 49ers, Dallas Cowboys, and Philadelphia Eagles as early postseason entrants.
But the job isn’t done for John Harbaugh’s team, as the AFC North and the AFC’s No. 1 seed are still up for grabs. Can the Ravens clinch the AFC North in Week 16, and where does the race for a first-round playoff bye stand?
Baltimore Ravens Playoff Chances | Week 16 Update
Note that this article was originally published on Sunday, Dec. 24 at 6:30 a.m. before Sunday’s games began. The results of this week’s games are below and will continue to be updated throughout the day.
After Week 16, the Ravens remain atop the AFC North and are still the No. 1 seed in the AFC. The Ravens can clinch the AFC’s No. 1 seed with a win in Week 17 against the Miami Dolphins.
Saturday Games Update
Steelers (8-7) defeated Bengals (8-7)
Bills (9-6) defeated Chargers (5-10)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET Games Update
Browns (10-5) defeated Texans (8-7)
Falcons (7-8) defeated Colts (8-7)
Sunday 4 p.m. ET Games Update
Dolphins (11-4) defeated Cowboys (10-5)
Buccaneers (8-7) defeated Jaguars (8-7)
SNF Update
Patriots (4-11) defeated Broncos (7-8)
Christmas Day Update
Raiders (7-8) defeated Chiefs (9-6)
Ravens (12-3) defeated 49ers (11-4)
Keep reading below to see the playoff scenarios for the Ravens entering Week 16. Additionally, head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture and the current NFL playoff bracket.
Baltimore Ravens’ Playoff Scenarios Entering Week 16
Although the Ravens (11-3) have yet to clinch the AFC North, Baltimore is on the precipice of winning its first division title since 2019.
ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) gives the Ravens a 91.6% chance of winning the AFC North heading into Week 16. That’s the fourth-highest mark for any division leader in the NFL, behind the 49ers, Kansas City Chiefs, and Detroit Lions.
Baltimore could secure the division crown as early as this week. If the Cleveland Browns (9-5) lose to the Houston Texans on Sunday, and the Ravens defeat the 49ers on Monday night, Baltimore would win the division.
The Ravens can also clinch the AFC North if they tie with the 49ers, while Cleveland falls to Houston.
The Browns are the Ravens’ only remaining competition for the AFC North crown. While the Cincinnati Bengals and Pittsburgh Steelers can still enter the postseason as Wild Card teams, they are no longer in contention to win the division.
MORE: NFL Week 16 Playoff Bracket
The only way Baltimore can cough up first place in the AFC North is by losing two of its remaining three games while Cleveland wins out.
While the Ravens are unlikely to lose out, they will face the NFL’s most difficult schedule to close the season. The 49ers and the Miami Dolphins (Week 17) are arguably two of the league’s three best teams (along with Baltimore), while the Steelers (Week 18) could still be a tough out.
Is Baltimore the Favorite for the AFC’s No. 1 Seed?
While the Jacksonville Jaguars have largely fallen out of the race for the AFC’s top seed, the Chiefs and Dolphins are still somewhat in the mix. But Miami (10-4) is a game behind the Ravens for the No. 1 seed, while Kansas City (9-5) is two games back with three weeks to go.
Baltimore cannot clinch the No. 1 seed this week, but they are the overwhelming favorite — roughly three in four — to receive a first-round bye in the AFC playoffs.
Because the Ravens and Dolphins will play each other in Week 17, both clubs control their own destiny for the No. 1 seed. If either team wins out, it will grab home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
As long as Baltimore goes at least 2-1 over the next three weeks, it will secure the No. 1 seed. The Ravens can go 1-2 and still earn the top seed, as long as their lone victory comes against Miami in Week 17.
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