The AFC West has come down to a two-team battle between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Denver Broncos. However, last week’s results have changed the outlook of the division somewhat, as the Broncos lost, and the Chiefs picked up a win. Could we see the Chiefs lock up the AFC West this week? What do the Broncos need to do if they want the crown?
AFC West Playoff Chances | Week 16 Update
Note that this article was originally published on Sunday, Dec. 24 at 8:35 a.m. before Sunday’s games began. The results of this week’s games are below and will continue to be updated throughout the day.
After Week 16, the Chiefs are the No. 3 seed in the AFC as the division leaders, while the Raiders are the No. 11 seed and the Broncos are the No. 12 seed. Following their loss on Christmas Day, the Chiefs can no longer earn the AFC’s No. 1 seed.
1 p.m. ET Games Update
Browns (10-5) defeated Texans (8-7)
Falcons (7-8) defeated Colts (8-7)
4 p.m. ET Games Update
Buccaneers (8-7) defeated Jaguars (8-7)
Dolphins (11-4) defeated Cowboys (10-5)
Sunday Night Football Update
Patriots (4-11) defeated Broncos (7-8)
Christmas Day Update
Raiders (7-8) defeated Chiefs (9-6)
Ravens (12-3) defeated 49ers (11-4)
Keep reading below to see the playoff scenarios for the AFC West entering Week 16. And head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture.
What Are the AFC West Playoff Scenarios for Week 16 and Beyond?
There is a chance that the AFC West could be locked up this week. The 9-5 Chiefs have a two-game lead over the 7-7 Broncos with three games to play. ESPN’s Football Power Index gives the Chiefs a 99% chance of winning the division.
The two teams split their head-to-head matches, but the Chiefs have a slight advantage when it comes to their 3-1 division record, compared to 2-2 for the Broncos. Additionally, the Chiefs have a slight advantage in games against common opponents (7-3 vs. 5-4) and a major advantage in conference record (7-2 vs. 4-5).
Those playoff tiebreakers mean that a win in Week 16 will be enough for the Chiefs to amass an unassailable lead over the Broncos. Denver would still be able to tie the Chiefs in terms of overall record, divisional record, and record against common opponents, but not conference record. Once the Chiefs get to 10 wins overall and four wins in the division, they have locked up the AFC West.
That means that if the Chiefs lose this week, they could also afford to lose in Week 17 and still have a chance to lock up the division when facing the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 18.
However, if the Broncos win out and the Chiefs lose in Weeks 16 and 18, the Broncos would win the division — regardless of the Chiefs’ Week 17 result.
That would give the Broncos a superior divisional record at 4-2 to the Chiefs at 3-3, which would ensure that even if they are tied on overall record, the Chiefs cannot win the division. Additionally, if Denver wins in Weeks 17 and 18, while the Chiefs go 0-3, the Broncos would take the division.
MORE: NFL Week 16 Playoff Bracket
The Las Vegas Raiders can also win the AFC West, but it requires a specific set of results. If the Raiders finish 3-0, they would secure the head-to-head tiebreaker in the event of a three-way tie with the Chiefs and Broncos.
They would still need the Chiefs to go 0-3, which would also clinch them the division on divisional record in the event of a two-way tie with the Chiefs (4-2 vs. 3-3).
Here are the AFC West-clinching scenarios for the Chiefs, Broncos, and Raiders:
Kansas City Clinches:
- The Chiefs win in Week 16 or 18 OR
- The Chiefs win in Week 17, and the Broncos lose one game OR
- The Chiefs tie in Week 16 or 18, and the Broncos lose one of their three games
Denver Clinches:
- The Broncos win in Weeks 17 and 18, avoid losing in Week 16, and the Chiefs do not achieve a better record than 0-2-1 OR
- The Broncos go 3-0, and the Chiefs lose in Weeks 16 and 18 OR
- The Broncos win in Weeks 17 and 18, and the Chiefs go 0-3
Las Vegas Clinches:
- The Raiders go 3-0, and the Chiefs go 0-3
What Is the AFC West Situation in the Wild Card Picture?
The situation in the AFC Wild Card picture is extremely complicated, with three weeks to go. Even the Chiefs could get dragged into the mess if they fail to win the division, as they have not locked up a playoff spot yet. Some scenarios could see the Chiefs miss the playoffs altogether if they went 1-2 or worse, but unless they go 0-3, it would require three other teams getting to 11 wins.
The Chiefs currently have a 7-2 conference record, so going 1-2 would mean they slide to 8-4 with a head-to-head win over the Cincinnati Bengals and a head-to-head loss against the Buffalo Bills.
None of the other teams in the AFC Wild Card race can end up on 10 wins with a superior conference record. The Indianapolis Colts could match them, but the others would all have five losses or more.
Therefore, for the Chiefs to miss out on the playoffs by going 1-2, they would have to see the Cleveland Browns, Bills, Colts, and/or the Houston Texans get to 11 wins to eliminate them. It is possible, but the chances are fairly slim if the Chiefs get to 10 wins. If they go 0-3, then they would be susceptible to three Wild Card teams getting to 10 wins and knocking them out at 9-8.
When it comes to the Broncos, there are a lot of different scenarios in play for a Wild Card spot. ESPN’s FPI gives them a 21.6% chance of making the playoffs entering Sunday of Week 16. Three wins from their final three gives them a chance. They would be 10-7 with a 7-5 conference record, which would at least give them a shot.
It is not out of the question they could make the playoffs at 2-1, but they would need a lot to fall their way at 9-8 with a 6-6 conference record. The only team in the eight/nine-win group they have a victory over is the Bills, but they lost to the Texans and Miami Dolphins.
MORE: NFC South Playoff Scenarios
How important those are depends on how the AFC East and AFC South divisions shake out. After that, it all comes down to which teams they need to break ties against as to how the Broncos will fare in the AFC Wild Card picture.
The Raiders’ scenario is simply to win out and hope things fall their way. Winning out would get the Raiders to nine wins, but it is hard to believe that three of the Browns, Colts, Bengals, Texans, and Bills do not get to 10 wins from their current positions.
There is a wide range of potential tiebreaker scenarios if the Raiders end up in a tie for a Wild Card spot at nine wins.
Depending on where you look, there are 80+ playoff scenarios that would see the Chargers eliminated from the playoffs in Week 16. The simplest of them is that if the Chargers fail to win or the Jaguars avoid defeat, Los Angeles is done for the year.
The Chargers need to go 3-0 and hope for a monumental collapse from all the teams already at eight wins. It’s not impossible, but it’s highly unlikely.
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