We have a tripleheader of action on Christmas Day, presenting us with plenty of NFL betting opportunities to round out Week 16. As we examine the odds for the three games today, what are our experts’ top player prop bets across the entire slate?
Whether it is Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce in the early game, D’Andre Swift and Darius Slayton in the middle game, or Gus Edwards and Justin Tucker in the nightcap, we have picks for everyone this week.
NFL Player Props for Christmas Day:
Patrick Mahomes Under 18.5 Rushing Yards (-110 at DraftKings)
Kyle Soppe: First things first: a healthy Mahomes. As much as this team wants to play well down the stretch, a healthy Mahomes is their path to playoff success.
With that in mind, Mahomes being held under 10 rushing yards in three of his last four games (after reaching 20 rushing yards in nine of 10) isn’t that shocking to me.
The Las Vegas Raiders are bottom-three in both pressure rate and opponent aDOT. Without the ability to create chaos in the backfield, Mahomes is unlikely to have the motivation to run, and the short depth of opponent target suggests that they play umbrella coverage that encourages dink-and-dunk passing.
I’m reading that as the short pass supplementing Mahomes’ rush attempts, and where do those short attempts go?
Travis Kelce Over 66.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Derek Tate: Kelce has still been among the most productive tight ends this season, but his production isn’t head and shoulders above everyone else at the position like it has been in the past.
One could argue that Father Time could be tapping Kelce on the shoulder. Nevertheless, he’s still a force when the Kansas City Chiefs’ offense is clicking on all cylinders.
Kelce’s receiving line feels quite low because of his 28-yard outing in Week 15 against the New England Patriots. He has also failed to top 60 yards receiving in four out of his last seven games, which makes this line pretty fair, to be honest.
The Raiders have been allowing an average of 51 yards per game to opposing tight ends this season, but Kelce did drop 91 against this same defense back in Week 12.
With the Chiefs still in the mix for home-field advantage in the AFC and Kelce coming off of his worst performances of the season, expect him to be very involved early in this contest and deliver a vintage Kelce performance in Week 16.
Darius Slayton Over 28.5 Receiving Yards (-105 at ESPN BET)
Ben Rolfe: Predicting how Slayton will perform week-to-week has not been easy to do this year.
In the last six weeks, he has topped 50 receiving yards three times and been under 25 in the other three.
MORE: PFN’s FREE NFL Playoff Predictor
This week, I’m banking on the matchup with the Philadelphia Eagles being exploitable. This season, Philadelphia is fourth in the NFL in yards allowed to opposing wide receivers with 2,661 in 14 games. One of the teams above them is the Washington Commanders, whom Slayton had a season-high 82 receiving yards against a few weeks ago.
I don’t trust the New York Giants’ passing game, but of the group, I distrust Slayton the least, and the number is low enough to where it’s worth taking for this game.
D’Andre Swift Over 65.5 Rushing Yards (-110 at ESPN BET)
Rolfe: Speaking of frustrating players on a week-to-week basis, let’s double down with Swift’s over in terms of rushing yards. The Giants are third in the NFL in rushing yards allowed to backs with 1,550.
New York has allowed over 100 rushing yards in four of their last five and 11 of their 14 games this season. For his part, Swift has topped 66 rushing yards in three of his last five, only going under that in the blowout losses to the Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers.
I would be stunned if this game was a blowout loss for the Eagles, so I fully expect Swift to be heavily involved against one of the worst run defenses in the NFL.
Gus Edwards Over 39.5 Rushing Yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Derek Tate: The loss of Mitchell may negatively impact the Baltimore Ravens’ offense as a whole. However, a strong case can be made that it could lead to more work for Edwards for the remainder of the 2023 season.
If you recall, J.K. Dobbins suffered a season-ending injury in the season opener against the Houston Texans, which immediately thrust Edwards into an expanded role. From Weeks 2-8, he averaged 14 carries for 56 yards per game.
However, once Mitchell got into the mix from Weeks 9-14, Edwards’ average per game dropped significantly to eight carries for 36 yards.
Last week, after Mitchell’s injury, Edwards became the lead man in this backfield again with 16 carries for 58 yards and a score.
The San Francisco 49ers’ defense does present a formidable challenge, but expect Edwards to see north of 10 carries with the backfield starting to thin out.
Justin Tucker Over 1.5 Field Goals Made (+110 at ESPN BET)
Rolfe: Finding Justin Tucker to have two field goals at plus odds felt like an early Christmas present on Christmas Eve.
Tucker has scored two or more field goals in five of his last six games. The one exception saw the almost apocalyptic scenario of Tucker missing a field goal that ultimately cost the Ravens the game.
San Francisco’s defense is a solid group and should stop Baltimore from finding the end zone at will. The weather in San Francisco is set to be nice, and Tucker can usually reach from anywhere at or inside 60 yards. The Ravens only need to get the ball into the 49ers’ half to be inside Tucker’s range.
This number and the odds associated simply feel too light given you are getting -110 odds on Tucker having more than 6.5 points in the game. I almost took Tucker for over 2.5 field goals at +400.
Isaiah Likely Over 48.5 Receiving Yards (-110 at DraftKings)
Ben Rolfe: Since Mark Andrews went down in Week 11, here are Isaiah Likely’s receiving yardage numbers: 40, 83, 70.
In that period, he has seen 19 targets and made 14 receptions while becoming one of Lamar Jackson’s most trusted options.
In Week 16, Likely faces a 49ers defense that has allowed 223 yards to opposing tight ends in the last four weeks. While it’s only just over 55 yards a week, that’s more than enough clearance over Likely’s current player prop for me to jump on it ahead of this matchup.
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