The 2020 quarterback class has been hyped because of the potential showcased by some of the biggest names in college football. Tua Tagovailoa and Joe Burrow look like some of the best quarterback prospects that have been developed recently. Justin Herbert and Jordan Love have a ton of potential that, if reached, could see them be great quarterbacks in the NFL. However, the whispers of the 2021 quarterback class have already begun to creep in. Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields are part of the hype monster that has whirled its way into the minds of fans everywhere, with the new motto ‘Tank for Trevor’ being used more and more often.
Fellow PFN Draft Analyst AJ Schulte wrote back in November that it would be wise to stick with the 2020 quarterback class instead of wait until 2021. However, circumstances have certainly changed since then. So much so, that one could now argue that next year’s draft class could potentially rival and may even surpass this years.
Joe Burrow and the questions surrounding Tua Tagovailoa
Make no mistake; there is no such thing as a sure thing in this draft class, except when looking at Joe Burrow. I will not try to convince Bengals fans to move off the platform of drafting Burrow with the first overall pick. He is going to be a good pro quarterback with great ability to extend plays outside of the pocket, great anticipation, smooth mechanics, and an impressive mental game. I indeed believe his upside is compromised to a degree because his arm is not elite by any means, which will limit some of those tight-window throws he can make at the next level. However, Burrow is a good quarterback, and if you are the Bengals, he’s the pick. The value of that franchise quarterback is too good to pass up when you get a guy like Burrow there for the taking.
However, when we get to a guy like Tagovailoa, I have no clue why a team would feel entirely comfortable with him, given the circumstances. He has a significant history of injuries. From the hip injury to the ankle injuries, he is a walking red flag of injury concerns. The fallout from the corona virus shutting down visits is going to be stark. Teams will not be able to see his hip for certain and make sure it is healing nicely. It makes complete sense for an organization to pass on Tua with the lack of knowledge about his injury history. As good as his tape is, Tua has a lot of red flags, and given the circumstances, as a team, you have to be concerned.
The bust potential of Justin Herbert and Jordan Love
As for Herbert, the upside is everything. There are notable weaknesses in both of their games. Herbert has issues processing changes from pre-snap to post-snap. The mental side of his game has a lot of work to be done on it. In terms of his progressions, Herbert likes to make pre-determined decisions and too often locks down onto targets. Herbert also has a history of injuries and takes too many hits. He broke his femur in 2014 and suffered a broken collarbone in 2017. Herbert lags behind on his internal clock and loses the sense of timing on route and panics under pressure at times as well. There are a lot of negatives to harp on with him. A team can bank on his upside, but if Herbert does not go to the right team, he very well could bust.
When looking at Love, his drop off in play is concerning. The 2019 tape is obviously worse than the 2018 tape. He was surrounded by a bad situation this past season, but he could rebound with all the great tape he has out there from 2018. However, it will not be easy. He has to stop trying to play so much hero ball. It caused him to be a poor decision-maker and got him into a ton of trouble. Love has spotty accuracy, and like Herbert, that internal clock is not always in action. Another one of my concerns with him is that he does not manipulate safeties enough with his eyes. He has to move defenders off his guys better, or passes are going to become telegraphed. If he lands in the wrong spot, it could go nuclear for Love.
Trevor Lawrence and the 2021 quarterback class
Now, when we look at the 2021 quarterback class, Trevor Lawrence looks to be maybe the best quarterback prospect we have seen in years. The tape speaks for itself. He has a rocket arm with fantastic ball placement and an excellent feel for the pressure. Lawrence has the mobility and pocket presence to extend plays and not panic under pressure. On the mental side of things, Lawrence does a great job of using his eyes to manipulate defenders. There is so much he does well, and he could be elite.
Justin Fields is very similar in that vein. He is more dual-threat than Lawrence, make no mistake about it. Lawrence is very athletic, and Fields is an excellent natural passer as well. However, Fields is a truck in the open field, which makes defenders look silly all the time. He has that unique ability to make plays happen that should not be able to occur. Fields as a prospect also clearly has a very high ceiling and no injury history. You see two quarterback prospects that could be elite and are scheme dynamic. They will fit well into a lot of teams, unlike guys like Herbert or Love, who need that nurturing environment more so than Fields or Lawrence.
Some of the other 2021 options
If you are a team like the Chargers or the Panthers and you want a quarterback, you certainly could wait for next year. There are a lot of other intriguing options. Trey Lance out of North Dakota State was phenomenal this year. If he comes out, that makes the 2021 class a three-headed monster. Brock Purdy out of Iowa State has shown a lot of good flashes. His mental game is entertaining to watch, and he makes some perfect throws into tight windows. Jamie Newman is another guy who has a ridiculous upside similar to Love in the 2021 quarterback class. There is a lot of talent next year in the 2021 quarterback class.
Now, listen, I get the value of a franchise quarterback. They improve your franchise and can start making your team a contender, quickly. However, with the current lack of medical knowledge on Tagovailoa, how dependent Herbert and Love will be on certain situations, and a severe drop off in talent after the top guys, there are a lot of question marks about the 2020 class. Next year looks promising in terms of what you could get in a quarterback. Do not blow a top pick just because you need a quarterback. If he is not your guy, do not do it. The 2021 quarterback class looks exceptionally talented, and given the circumstances, it would be wise to hone in on that class.