With just three weeks remaining in the 2023 NFL season, playoff races are rounding into form, and contenders are separating from pretenders.
Some postseason scenarios became clearer this week, but the league still has a mass of teams bunched near the middle of the standings. How do we stack up the NFL’s 32 clubs entering Week 16?
NFL Power Rankings | Week 16
32) Carolina Panthers
Congratulations to interim Panthers head coach Chris Tabor, who picked up his first win on Sunday. Carolina still has just two victories this season, keeping the club at the bottom of our power rankings.
A 9-7 victory doesn’t necessarily look impressive on paper. But Bryce Young’s ability to lead a game-winning, 17-play, 90-yard drive in the rain — while completing all five of his pass attempts on the series — should give the No. 1 overall pick some much-needed confidence.
31) New England Patriots
Can the Patriots bottle Bailey Zappe’s first-half performance from Week 15? Fresh off a three-touchdown effort against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 14, Zappe started strong on Sunday, completing 17 of 19 attempts for 141 yards and a score while keeping things close against the Kansas City Chiefs.
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But the second-half Patriots looked like the same team we’ve seen for most of the season. Zappe completed just six of 12 passes for 39 yards and a pick, while New England managed only 57 offensive yards. Bill Belichick is coaching out the string.
30) Washington Commanders
Where does Week 15 leave Sam Howell? Ron Rivera benched the second-year quarterback after a fourth-quarter interception, and veteran backup Jacoby Brissett proceeded to throw two touchdowns to close out Washington’s loss to the Los Angeles Rams. Rivera won’t be back as the Commanders’ head coach in 2024, while Howell’s chances of starting for the club next year decreased significantly on Sunday.
29) Arizona Cardinals
Second-year TE Trey McBride will be a weapon for whoever plays quarterback for the Cardinals in 2024. McBride posted 10 catches for 102 yards in Arizona’s loss to the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday. He’s managed at least five receptions in nine straight games and has topped 60 yards in four of his last five.
28) Los Angeles Chargers
No team has fallen further since our Week 1 power rankings than the Chargers, who mercifully fired head coach Brandon Staley and general manager Tom Telesco after Los Angeles’ embarrassing 63-21 defeat to the Las Vegas Raiders on Thursday night.
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While the Chargers haven’t been formally eliminated from the playoffs, there’s nothing left on this roster. Justin Herbert already suffered a season-ending finger injury. Mike Williams (knee) is out for the year. Keenan Allen (heel) is banged up. Joey Bosa (foot) is on injured reserve and has no reason to return this year. Los Angeles can press “sim” until 2024.
27) New York Giants
The Giants’ three-game win streak and the emergence of Tommy DeVito as a potentially viable NFL starter gave New York hope that Big Blue could sneak into the playoffs as a Wild Card entrant. But those hopes came crashing down in Week 15 when Tommy Cutlets took seven sacks and the Giants averaged just 3.2 yards per play en route to a 24-6 loss.
26) Tennessee Titans
One week after staging a miraculous fourth-quarter comeback to beat the Miami Dolphins, the Titans coughed up a lead of their own. Tennessee deserved to lose to the Houston Texans on Sunday after being outgained by nearly 140 yards, but the Titans held a 10-point lead at halftime. At least rookie QB Will Levis — who went down late in overtime — appears to have avoided a serious injury.
25) New York Jets
Anyone who thought Zach Wilson had turned the corner after throwing for 300 yards and two touchdowns against the Atlanta Falcons last Sunday might want to think again. Wilson, who earned AFC Offensive Player of the Week honors in Week 14, completed just four of 11 passes against the Dolphins today before departing with a concussion.
By losing on Sunday, the Jets were officially eliminated from the postseason. They haven’t made the playoffs in 13 years, the longest drought among America’s major sports franchises.
24) Las Vegas Raiders
Everything Raiders owner Mark Davis said when he fired former head coach Josh McDaniels in November signals that Las Vegas will start fresh next offseason. But interim HC Antonio Pierce has certainly given Davis something to think about.
Pierce led the Raiders to a 63-21 win over the Chargers on Thursday night and is now 3-3 as the club’s temporary head coach. Davis didn’t promote former interim HC Rich Bisaccia to the full-time role even after he took the Raiders to the playoffs in 2021, so Pierce’s chances are probably low.
23) Pittsburgh Steelers
Everything is falling apart for the Steelers, who haven’t scored more than 20 points since Week 10 and have failed to top 26 in any game this season. Mitchell Trubisky is a downgrade from Kenny Pickett (ankle), while Pittsburgh’s defense has given up 25 points per game over the last three weeks despite facing the Cardinals, Patriots, and Indianapolis Colts. Did Mike Tomlin run out of magic?
22) Chicago Bears
The Bears had plenty of chances to win in Week 15. They picked off Cleveland Browns QB Joe Flacco three times and still somehow managed to blow a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter, allowing Flacco and Co. to score 13 unanswered points.
Chicago might have had an outside chance at the playoffs had it emerged with a victory on Sunday. But evaluating Justin Fields is more important, and his Week 15 performance (19 of 40 for 166 yards, 1 TD, 2 interceptions) won’t stop the calls for the Bears to select USC’s Caleb Williams in the 2024 NFL Draft.
21) Atlanta Falcons
Where do we begin with the Falcons? Atlanta, which looked the favorite to win the NFC South two weeks ago, saw its chances at the division title all but wiped away when it lost to the Panthers on Sunday.
Desmond Ridder isn’t the answer under center, and Arthur Smith might not be the solution on the sidelines, either (despite reports that he won’t be fired “barring a late-season collapse”). Tyler Allgeier received twice as many rushing attempts as No. 8 overall pick Bijan Robinson in Week 15. How is that possible?
20) New Orleans Saints
The Saints’ 24-6 win over the Giants showed what kind of team they can be, even if their victory didn’t come against the best competition. Derek Carr played low-risk football, tossing three touchdowns against no interceptions, taking just one sack, and posting the highest QBR (87.7) of Week 15.
New Orleans gets to play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers again in Week 17, so it still has a chance at the NFC South title. But the club’s other two games are against the Los Angeles Rams and Falcons, while the Bucs get the Jacksonville Jaguars and Panthers — advantage Tampa Bay. The Saints may still have a chance at a Wild Card berth, though.
19) Green Bay Packers
While the Packers had a chance to solidify themselves in the NFC Wild Card race with a win over the Buccaneers on Sunday, Green Bay instead fell all the way to the No. 11 seed by losing their second straight game. No matter how the Packers’ season turns out, it’s hard to imagine defensive coordinator Joe Barry will be asked to return in 2024.
18) Seattle Seahawks
Seattle desperately needed its Monday night win over the Philadelphia Eagles. Pete Carroll’s club had lost four in a row and looked to be quickly moving out of the NFC playoff picture.
But a 10-play, 92-yard game-winning touchdown drive led by Drew Lock — yes, Drew Lock — capped a comeback that trusted the Seahawks right back into the Wild Card conversation. With games against the Titans, Steelers, and Cardinals to close the season, a 10-7 finish isn’t out of the question.
17) Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings gave away a game they should have won against the Cincinnati Bengals on Saturday afternoon. Nick Mullens, Minnesota’s fourth starting QB of the year, made a few plays but was horribly erratic. But the Vikings’ defensive collapse against Bengals backup Jake Browning was even more disappointing.
16) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Don’t look now, but the Buccaneers are the clear favorites to win the NFC South after winning their third straight game to move to 7-7. Not only that, but their 34-20 victory over the Green Bay Packers might have been their most complete win of the season.
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Baker Mayfield was as efficient as he’s ever been in the NFL, missing on just six of 28 attempts while throwing for nearly 400 yards and four touchdowns. Tampa Bay proved on Sunday it can travel and beat a decent opponent. Can they do it in the playoffs?
15) Denver Broncos
Denver took it on the chin against the Detroit Lions on Saturday, losing its second game in three weeks and significantly reducing the club’s chances of sneaking into the playoffs after their disastrous 1-5 start.
On the plus side, the Broncos will face the Patriots, Chargers, and Raiders to close the season. All three are winnable games — if Denver finishes the year 10-7, it could yet earn a Wild Card berth.
14) Indianapolis Colts
Indy might have knocked the Steelers out of realistic playoff contention with its 17-point victory on Saturday, and Shane Steichen’s club simultaneously kept itself alive in the postseason race.
While the Colts didn’t get the results they needed over the rest of Week 15 as other AFC Wild Card contenders won, they should be able to win at least two more games while playing the Falcons, Raiders, and Texans to close the season. Ten wins will likely be enough to get Indianapolis into the playoffs and might even give it a chance at the AFC South crown.
13) Los Angeles Rams
Few offenses are humming like the Rams’ after Week 15. Los Angeles has averaged 33 points per game over the last month, and that includes matchups against the Browns and Baltimore Ravens, who may field the NFL’s two best defenses. Back in playoff position at the NFC’s No. 7 seed, the Rams need at least two more wins to feel good about a postseason slot.
12) Houston Texans
Houston would have faced an arduous path to the playoffs had it lost to the Titans on Sunday, and for a while, it looked as though the C.J. Stroud-less Texans would fall to their inferior AFC South rivals. But a 19-3 run to close the game allowed backup QB Case Keenum to escape with a much-needed win.
Stroud (concussion) should return in Week 16, and Houston’s rest-of-season schedule — vs. CLE, vs. TEN, at IND — isn’t overly daunting.
11) Jacksonville Jaguars
Watching Jacksonville lose to the Ravens on Sunday night was an extremely frustrating experience. The Jaguars found several ways to leave points on the field, from fumbles in Baltimore territory to missed field goals to a bizarre sequence at the end of the first half when Trevor Lawrence’s failure to spike the ball eliminated a potential field-goal opportunity.
Doug Pederson’s club is still in first place in the AFC South, but they have the same 8-6 record as the Texans and Colts with three weeks remaining. Jacksonville is still likely (but hardly guaranteed) to make the playoffs, but they’re only coin-flip favorites to win the division at this point.
10) Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals continued to defy all post-Joe Burrow expectations by winning their third straight game on Saturday, improving their record to 8-6 and re-installing Cincinnati as playoff contenders. Jake Browning and Co. showed incredible resiliency against the Vikings, scoring 21 fourth-quarter points before winning in overtime.
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A Week 16 game against the Steelers should go better than Browning’s first career start against Pittsburgh did, but the Kansas City Chiefs loom in Week 17. Given how poorly the Bengals fare in AFC tiebreaking scenarios, they might need to win out to guarantee themselves a postseason entry.
9) Cleveland Browns
Kevin Stefanksi might be the frontrunner for Coach of the Year. Now on their fourth starting quarterback of the season, the Browns just keep winning. Cleveland needed a frantic comeback to beat the Bears on Sunday, and Flacco threw three interceptions. But the Browns are now virtually assured of a playoff spot, and their defense could be dominant in January.
8) Detroit Lions
The Lions can clinch their first playoff berth since 2016 if the Seahawks lose on Monday night, and they’ve all but locked up the NFC North. Detroit has a three-game lead on Minnesota with three weeks to play. Although the Lions and Vikings will play twice to close the year, Dan Campbell’s club would have to collapse not to secure the division title.
7) Kansas City Chiefs
Is Rashee Rice the answer to the Chiefs’ WR problems? The second-round rookie went 9-91-1 in Kansas City’s Week 15 win over New England and has now topped 60 yards in each of his last four games while scoring three total touchdowns.
The Chiefs still didn’t look great on Sunday. Patrick Mahomes threw two picks, and Kansas City only beat the woeful Patriots by 10 points. But a win is a win, and the Chiefs’ victory — combined with Denver’s Saturday loss — makes Kansas City an overwhelming favorite to win its eighth straight AFC West title.
6) Philadelphia Eagles
After struggling against the Cowboys’ and 49ers’ defenses over the past two weeks, Philadlephia capped a three-game losing streak by losing to the Geno Smith-less Seahawks on Monday night. Jalen Hurts threw two picks against a struggling Seattle defense, while new DC Matt Patricia’s unit let Drew Lock culminate a comeback drive with a 29-yard TD strike to Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
The Eagles have already clinched a playoff berth, and their cakewalk of a closing schedule — vs. NYG, vs. ARZ, at NYG — makes them the favorites to win the NFC East. But Philadelphia has almost no shot at the conference’s No. 1 and a lot of issues to solve before the postseason begins.
5) Buffalo Bills
How high is too high for the Bills? Over the past four weeks, Buffalo has dominated a Jets defense that was considered elite, narrowly lost to the Philadelphia Eagles in overtime, then beaten the Chiefs and Dallas Cowboys in quick succession.
The Bills didn’t need much from Josh Allen today, especially with James Cook and the club’s running succeeding to the tune of 266 yards and three TDs in the Buffalo elements. If the Bills don’t have to ask Allen to play hero ball and their defense continues to improve, there might not be a team that can stop them.
4) Miami Dolphins
After giving up a 14-point fourth-quarter lead in Week 14, Miami’s defense was on a mission against the Jets in Week 15. The Dolphins sacked New York’s quarterbacks six times, picked them off twice, and held Gang Green to zero points and 1.9 yards per play.
MORE: Deep Dive Into Dolphins’ Historic Week 15 Defensive Performance
Sure, the Jets hardly represent elite offensive competition. But Miami’s defensive potential is through the roof, especially when the unit gets healthier. The Dolphins won’t get lucky enough to win without Tyreek Hill (ankle) every week, but they didn’t need him against New York as Jaylen Waddle posted eight catches for 142 yards and a score.
3) Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys ran into a buzzsaw on Sunday –it’s as simple as that. Few teams were hotter than Dallas over the past month, but the Bills might have been one of them.
Nothing went right for Dak Prescott and Co. against Buffalo, but that doesn’t mean the Cowboys aren’t still among the NFL’s genuine Super Bowl contenders. However, Dallas’ Week 15 loss will make it incredibly difficult — if not impossible — for the club to earn the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
2) Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens clinched a playoff berth by taking down the Jaguars on Sunday night and stayed two games ahead of the Browns in the AFC North. Moreover, Baltimore’s Week 15 win shifted its chances of landing the AFC’s No. 1 seed to roughly three in four.
Lamar Jackson rushed for nearly 100 yards against Jacksonville and made several plays outside of structure that few — if any — quarterbacks around the league could execute. Rookie RB Keaton Mitchell’s severe knee injury put a damper on Baltimore’s victory, but the Ravens are the kings of the AFC with three weeks remaining in the regular season.
1) San Francisco 49ers
No team is playing a more dominant brand of football than the 49ers, who put up 45 points on the Cardinals in Week 15 while moving to 11-3 on the season. Brock Purdy continued to buoy his MVP case, averaging nearly 10 yards per attempt while tossing four touchdowns (two each to Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel).
Forgive us if we’re already looking ahead to next Monday night, when San Francisco and Baltimore will square off in what could be a Super Bowl 58 preview.
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