The Jacksonville Jaguars entered the 2023 NFL season as the overwhelming favorites to win the AFC South for the second consecutive year, and Doug Pederson’s club may very well walk away with the title. But securing the division is proving more difficult than Jacksonville may have imagined.
Having lost their last two games by a combined seven points, the Jaguars are now 8-5 entering Week 15 and have left a window of opportunity cracked for the division-rival Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans.
How narrow has Jacksonville’s lead in the AFC South become, and does Jacksonville still have a shot at the conference’s No. 1 overall seed? Let’s examine below.
Jaguars Playoff Chances | Week 15 Update
Note that this article was originally published on Dec. 17 at 9 a.m. ET before Sunday’s games began. The results of this week’s games are below and will continue to be updated throughout the day.
After Sunday Night Football in Week 15, the Jaguars remain the No. 4 seed in the AFC.
1 p.m. ET Games Update
Dolphins (10-4) defeated Jets (5-9)
Chiefs (9-5) defeated Patriots (3-11)
Browns (9-5) defeated Bears (5-9)
4 p.m. ET Games Update
Bills (8-6) defeated Cowboys (10-4)
Sunday Night Football Update
Ravens (11-3) defeated Jaguars (8-6)
Keep reading below to see the playoff scenarios for the Jaguars entering Week 15. And head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture.
Are the Jacksonville Jaguars a Lock to Win the AFC South?
Although the Jaguars remain a virtual lock to make the playoffs in some capacity, they’re no longer a near-certainty to win the NFC South. ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) still has Jacksonville as 90% likely to make the postseason. But its chances to win the division now sit at just three in four.
The Jaguars (8-4) have a half-game lead over the 8-5 Colts, who defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers on Saturday afternoon. The Texans (7-5), facing the Tennessee Titans on Sunday, is a full game back of Jacksonville entering Week 15.
Trevor Lawrence and Co. swept their season series against Indianapolis, giving them a head-to-head tiebreaker, while the Jaguars and Texans split. FPI gives the Colts roughly a 15% chance of winning the AFC South, with the other 10% belonging to Houston.
MORE: Jacksonville Jaguars Depth Chart
If the Jags lose to the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday Night Football, their division odds will drop to 70%. And that’s just in a vacuum, without considering that the Texans could pick up an additional game in Week 15.
If Houston takes down the Titans and Jacksonville loses to Baltimore, the Jags’ AFC South chances will fall to roughly 65%.
Of course, there’s also the flip side, as Jacksonville could all but lock up the division crown this week. A Jacksonville victory plus a Houston loss will push its AFC South odds to 95%.
Can the Jaguars Still Land the AFC’s No. 1 Seed?
The Jaguars are still the favorites to win the AFC South, but their recent losses have severely damaged their chances of earning the AFC’s top seed. Jacksonville entered the 2022-23 postseason as the No. 4 seed, and that seems likely a more likely slot for them in 2023-24 than the No. 1 rung.
With an 8-5 record entering Sunday’s action, the Jaguars are two games behind the Ravens, one game behind the Miami Dolphins, and tied with the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC standings.
Grabbing the top seed — and a first-round playoff bye — no longer seems like a realistic possibility. The Jags have just a 3% chance of landing the No. 1 seed entering Week 15., per FPI.
Jacksonville can be eliminated from No. 1 seed contention in Week 15. Because the Pittsburgh Steelers and Denver Broncos lost on Saturday, the Jaguars will be officially removed from the No. 1 seed race if they lose to the Ravens.
Of course, they can help their chances by defeating Baltimore on SNF. But Jacksonville would need significant help in order for its outlook to change significantly.
If the Dolphins (vs. NYJ) and Chiefs (vs. NE) are upset on Sunday, the Jaguars’ chances of securing the No. 1 seed will increase to roughly one in four, putting them squarely back in the mix for a playoff bye. But Miami and Kansas City are 8+ point favorites in their respective games.
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