The Tampa Bay Buccaneers head into Week 15 in prime position when it comes to the NFC South, despite sitting at just 6-7 on the season. Normally, at this stage of the season, a division leader can at least feel good about their spot in the playoffs, but the Buccaneers’ chances of making the postseason are less than 50% entering Sunday morning.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Playoff Chances – Week 15 Update
Note that this article was originally published on Sunday, Dec. 17 at 8:30 a.m. ET before Sunday’s games began. The results of this week’s games are below and will continue to be updated throughout the day.
After Monday Night Football in Week 15, the Buccaneers are still the No. 4 seed in the NFC.
1 p.m. Games Update
Panthers (2-12) defeated Falcons (6-8)
Buccaneers (7-7) defeated the Packers (6-8)
Saints (7-7) defeated the Giants (5-9)
Browns (9-5) defeated Bears (5-9)
4 p.m. Games Update
Rams (7-7) defeated Commanders (4-10)
49ers (11-3) defeated Cardinals (3-11)
Monday Night Football Update
Seahawks (7-7) defeated Eagles (10-4)
Keep reading below to see the playoff scenarios for the Buccaneers entering Sunday of Week 15. And head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture.
What Are the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ Playoff Chances in 2023?
Despite leading their division entering Week 15, the Buccaneers’ playoff chances sit at just 45.2% entering Sunday morning, per ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI). In terms of the NFC South, the FPI gives the Buccaneers a 35.5% chance of taking home the crown this season.
Those numbers reflect the tenuous grip the Buccaneers have on the division right now. Entering Week 15, the Buccaneers are tied at 6-7 with both the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints. Therefore, a single loss could send the Buccaneers not only out of the division lead but into the bottom half of the NFC standings this week.
What Are the Buccaneers’ Playoff Scenarios for Week 15?
One element of comfort for the Buccaneers is that they know if they go 4-0, they will win the division and clinch a home playoff game in the Wild Card Round. However, the margin for error is as slim as it could possibly be. Even one loss could be enough to cause the Buccaneers to miss out on the playoffs altogether.
In terms of Week 15, the Buccaneers’ best-case scenario is that they defeat the Green Bay Packers, and both the Falcons and Saints lose their respective matchups. Not only would that give the Buccaneers a one-game lead in the division, but it would give them a boost for the final NFC Wild Card spot if they do get pipped for the division.
If the Buccaneers were to get really greedy, they would also like to see the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks lose this week. That would give the Buccaneers a one-game lead over all of the other teams in the race for the NFC Wild Card race. It isn’t much, but it just allows a little more margin for error down the stretch.
A win this week would also really help the Buccaneers when it comes to their NFL playoff tiebreakers. First and foremost, a head-to-head win over the Packers would be a nice card to hold alongside their Week 1 win over the Vikings.
MORE: Tampa Bay Buccaneers Depth Chart
Secondly, it would bump the Buccaneers’ conference record up to 6-4, which could be vital in splitting a tie for a Wild Card spot at the end of Week 18.
Of course, the Buccaneers will hope that they don’t need a Wild Card spot to make the playoffs. There are multiple scenarios for the Buccaneers to win the division, and all but one of them are dependent on the way the Saints and Falcons perform. A single loss for the Buccaneers could open the door for either team to snatch the division.
The positive for the Buccaneers is that they have an edge in most tiebreaker scenarios with the Falcons and Saints, thanks to their record against shared opponents between those three teams.
The biggest stumbling block for the Buccaneers would be a loss to the Saints or Panthers (or both) which would make them vulnerable to the Falcons and Saints in terms of division record.
In terms of Week 15, the Buccaneers’ worst-case scenario is a loss to the Packers while both the Saints and Falcons emerge victorious. That would hurt their division and Wild Card pursuit, ensuring they are one game outside of both at the end of the week.
The Buccaneers would then lose control of their destiny. They play the Saints in Week 17, so they could recoup that game against New Orleans then. However, they would need someone to beat the Falcons in the final three weeks, or Atlanta would take the division.
When Could the Buccaneers Clinch the NFC South?
Due to the Buccaneers’ season ending with two divisional matchups, they cannot clinch the NFC South until Week 17 at the earliest, as things stand. Even if they go 2-0 and the Falcons and Saints go 0-2, they are still not assured of the division. However, they would have two shots at clinching the division in Weeks 17 and 18.
MORE: PFN’s FREE NFL Playoff Predictor
Two losses to round out the season, accompanied by two wins for the Saints or Falcons, would be enough to push the Buccaneers out of the playoffs based on divisional record. Tampa Bay would finish 8-9 with a 3-3 divisional record, while the Saints or Falcons would be 8-9 with a 4-2 divisional record in that scenario.
Want to predict the rest of the 2023 season with our FREE NFL Playoff Predictor? Looking for the most up-to-date NFL standings? What about a breakdown of team depth charts or the NFL schedule? Pro Football Network has you covered with that and more!
