The race to secure the No. 1 seed in the NFC is on a knife edge, with four teams all harboring hopes that they can be the one to clinch that all-important bye and home-field advantage. Can the Philadelphia Eagles keep the pressure on the San Francisco 49ers on Monday Night Football?
Let’s examine the potential NFC No. 1 seed scenarios entering Monday night and what they could mean for the rest of the season.
NFC No. 1 Seed Scenarios Update | MNF Week 15
This article was originally published on Dec. 18 at 12 p.m. ET, well before Monday Night Football kicked off in Seattle.
With the Eagles (10-4) falling to the Seahawks (7-7) on Monday Night Football, the Dallas Cowboys remain the NFC East leader and the No. 2 seed in the NFC despite their loss in Buffalo on Sunday.
That said, continue reading below to see the help that the Cowboys would still need to land the NFC’s top seed entering the playoffs. You can also head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture.
How Can the San Francisco 49ers Clinch the No. 1 Seed?
The 49ers took care of business against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 15, then now get to settle in and see if the Eagles lose their third game in a row.
With the Dallas Cowboys losing, the 49ers could potentially open a one-game advantage over the chasing back if the Eagles lose to the Seattle Seahawks tonight. In theory, the 49ers would essentially be 1.25 games ahead of the other three, thanks to their situation in terms of NFL playoff tiebreakers.
The 49ers have defeated both the Eagles (10-3) and Cowboys (10-4) while also holding a two-game lead in terms of conference record over the Detroit Lions (10-4). Therefore, the 49ers would need to avoid failing to win two of their remaining three games if they are to lock up the No. 1 seed.
Even if the Eagles win tonight, Kyle Shanahan’s club controls its own destiny for the No. 1 seed. If San Francisco wins out and finishes 14-3, it cannot be moved out of the top slot in the NFC, regardless of what happens elsewhere around the NFL.
If the 49ers don’t win out, they’ll need to match or exceed Philadelphia’s win count over the next three weeks. Next week is the toughest test as they host the Baltimore Ravens, but after that, they should be heavy favorites:
- Week 16: vs. BAL
- Week 17: at WAS
- Week 18: vs. LAR
How Can the Philadelphia Eagles Clinch the NFC’s No. 1 Seed?
It has been a bad couple of weeks for the Eagles. They lost to their two main rivals in back-to-back games. Then QB Jalen Hurts got downgraded to questionable due to illness on Sunday ahead of Week 15.
Despite that, the Eagles clinched a playoff spot and moved back to the No. 2 spot in the NFC standings ahead of their game against the Seattle Seahawks tonight. The biggest damage in that two-game skid was losing to the 49ers, who now hold a crucial head-to-head tiebreaker.
As such, Jalen Hurts and Co. will need to win one more game than San Francisco over the season’s final month. Otherwise, they’ll be relegated to the second seed at best or the fifth seed at worst.
In the event the 49ers crumble, the Eagles could end up fighting with the Cowboys for the division and the No. 1 seed.
In which case, as long as the Eagles do not drop a divisional game against the New York Giants, they can afford to lose one of their Week 15 or Week 17 games and still take the division thanks to a superior record against common opponents.
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Philadelphia’s chances at the No. 1 seed rely on a stumble from the 49ers, but the Eagles hold one obvious advantage in this race — the NFL’s third-easiest remaining schedule:
- Week 15: at SEA
- Week 16: vs. NYG
- Week 17: vs. ARZ
- Week 18: at NYG
Can the Dallas Cowboys Grab the No. 1 Seed?
Sunday could not have gone much worse for the Cowboys. Losing to the Buffalo Bills while the 49ers beat the Cardinals left them in a hole if they want a bye through to the Divisional Round. It also left their hopes of winning the NFC East in tatters as well.
Now, the Cowboys need a lot of help. They either need both the 49ers and Eagles to lose two games or the 49ers to lose two and the Eagles to lose one of their two games against the Giants. Oh, and the Cowboys also need to navigate a tough schedule to perfection themselves.
If the Cowboys and Eagles are tied on overall record and divisional record at the end of Week 18, the Eagles will take the division due to a superior record against common opponents.
Right now, both are on track to finish 5-1 within the division, so the Cowboys need the Eagles to drop a game against the Giants to give them a slight advantage.
Meanwhile, the 49ers hold head-to-head wins over both the Cowboys and Eagles. Therefore, they can finish tied on record with the two NFC East teams and prevail based on that record. The Cowboys need the 49ers to finish with more than their current four losses, which is a tough ask.
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Here’s the rest of the Cowboys’ schedule:
- Week 16: at MIA
- Week 17: vs. DET
- Week 18: at WAS
Do the Detroit Lions Still Have a Shot at the No. 1 Seed?
The Lions still have an outside chance at the No. 1 seed, but they need some help. Detroit almost has to go 3-0 the rest of the way because, with a 6-3 conference record, they cannot afford another in-conference loss.
As things stand, both the Eagles (6-2) and 49ers (9-1) have superior conference record. Any more losses in the conference would make it close to impossible for the Lions to surpass both of them, barring a complete meltdown. Detroit already needs the 49ers to drop two of their final three games and the Eagles to lose one of their final four to put them in contention for the No. 1 pick.
The Lions can essentially eliminate the Cowboys from the equation if they defeat them in Week 17. However, that is a double-edged sword, as a loss for Detroit would almost certainly end any hopes they have of a Wild Card Weekend bye.
Here’s the Lions’ remaining schedule:
- Week 16: at MIN
- Week 17: at DAL
- Week 18: vs. MIN
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