The NFC East is set to be a tightly fought battle between the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles this season. As things stand entering Week 15, the Cowboys are ahead in the standings thanks to a superior divisional record, but the Eagles control the direction of the division. Both teams can secure their spot in the playoff with a win this week, but their eyes will be on much bigger things.
With four weeks left and the opportunity for multiple twists and turns, several different scenarios could play out for the NFC East this season. With the assistance of the free PFN NFL Playoff Predictor, let’s examine the scenarios that could see either team taking home the crown in 2023.
NFC East Playoff Scenarios – Week 15 Update
Note that this article was originally published on Sunday, Dec. 17 at 6:30 a.m. ET before Saturday’s games began. The results of this week’s games are below and will continue to be updated throughout the day.
After Week 15, the Cowboys remain to the No. 2 seed in the NFC and have clinched a playoff spot thanks to the Falcons’ loss. The Eagles remain the 5 seed after a loss to the Seahawks but still clinched a playoff spot, and the Giants are 12th in the NFC standings.
NFC East Standings
1. Dallas Cowboys (10-4)
2. Philadelphia Eagles (10-4)
3. New York Giants (5-9)
4. Washington Commanders (4-10)
1 p.m. Games Update
Panthers (2-12) defeated Falcons (6-8)
Buccaneers (7-7) defeated the Packers (6-8)
Saints (7-7) defeated the Giants (5-9)
Browns (9-5) defeated Bears (5-9)
4 p.m. Games Update
Bills (8-6) defeated Cowboys (10-4)
Rams (7-7) defeated Commanders (4-10)
49ers (11-3) defeated Cardinals (3-11)
Monday Night Football Update
Seahawks (7-7) defeated Eagles (10-4)
Keep reading below to see the playoff scenarios for the NFC South entering Sunday of Week 15. And head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture.
What Are the NFC East Playoff Scenarios for the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles?
Before we dive into scenarios for the division, it is crucial to understand why the Cowboys currently lead the division, but the Eagles control the division.
Both teams enter Week 15 at 10-3, but the Cowboys top the division, thanks to a 4-1 divisional record, compared to 3-1 for the Eagles.
If both teams win out in 2023, those divisional records will be equal at 5-1, and we move onto stage two of the NFL playoff tiebreakers. That second stage is “games against common opponents.” Currently, the Cowboys have a slight advantage at 7-2 with the Eagles at 6-2, but if both teams win out, they will be tied at 10-2 in that tiebreaker.
That is where the Eagles’ advantage comes through. Because their third loss came to the New York Jets, they only have two conference losses, compared to three for the Cowboys. Therefore, if both teams win out down the stretch, the Eagles will be the NFC East champions.
The problem for the Cowboys, though, is that it is tough to find a playoff tiebreaker where they currently have an advantage. Even if they ended up tied through the conference record, the Eagles’ strength of victory is .492 right now, compared to .385 for the Cowboys.
That could narrow in the coming weeks, but it is hard to see it flipping completely.
MORE: PFN’s FREE NFL Playoff Predictor
What could work in the Cowboys’ favor in the event of a tie is if they lose one game to a non-division opponent and the Eagles lose one of their games to the New York Giants. That would give Dallas an advantage in terms of a divisional record of 5-1 to 4-2 and let the “‘Boys” clinch the division.
The other scenario that could come into play with a tie on the overall record would be if the Cowboys lose to the Detroit Lions and the Eagles lose to the Seattle Seahawks or Arizona Cardinals. That would give the Cowboys the edge in terms of their common opponents and allow them to win the NFC East on that tiebreaker.
Of course, the easiest of the Cowboys’ division-clinching scenarios right now is to win one more game than the Eagles do down the stretch. The problem for Dallas is that their schedule looks a lot tougher than the Eagles.
The Cowboys will face the Buffalo Bills (7-6), Miami Dolphins (9-4), Lions (9-4), and Washington Commanders (4-9) in the next four games. That is a total of 29 wins and 23 losses for their opponents, compared to 19 wins and 33 losses for the Eagles’ opponents (Seahawks, Cardinals, and Giants twice.)
Entering this week, the ESPN Football Power Index gives the Cowboys a 32.3% chance of winning the division, compared to a 67.7% chance for the Eagles.
By no means are the Cowboys out of it, but they need someone to upset the Eagles. It is not out of the question, but the Eagles are favorites for the division right now.
Can Either NFC East Team Clinch the No. 1 Seed?
Winning the division is just the first part of an even bigger aim for the Cowboys and Eagles. Locking up the top seed in the NFC is the big goal. Currently, the San Francisco 49ers have the advantage over both teams, thanks to their victories over both this season. However, the 49ers’ lead is minuscule in relative terms.
If either of the Eagles or the Cowboys go undefeated in the next four weeks and clinch the division, they only need the 49ers to lose one game for the number one seed to be in their grasp. However, if the 49ers, Eagles, and Cowboys all lose, then it potentially brings the Lions back into the picture.
MORE: Remaining NFL Strength of Schedule 2023
That is when things start to get complicated with head-to-head records and conference records. The 49ers currently have one conference loss, the Eagles have two, and the Cowboys and Lions have three. With all of the Eagles’ remaining games being against conference opponents, they cannot lose a game and beat out or tie the 49ers on conference record.
Meanwhile, the Cowboys and Lions would need the 49ers to lose two conference games, and the Lions would need the Eagles to lose one to get past that tiebreaker. Then, we get into the conversation of common games, strength of victory, and strength of schedule.
The common game tiebreaker requires a minimum of four common games and would need to be calculated based on who is in the tie. A three-way tie between the Eagles, 49ers, and Lions could be split on common games, but this wouldn’t occur with a three-way tie between the Lions, Cowboys, and 49ers.
That is bad news for the Cowboys, whose strength of victory is the lowest of any of the four teams in the conversation for the top seed.
Therefore, both the Eagles and Cowboys will be hoping they can win out and see the 49ers lose a single game. The Cowboys would also need the Eagles to lose, but right now, the best that both teams can do is go 4-0 and hope for some help elsewhere.
Want to predict the rest of the 2023 season with our FREE NFL Playoff Predictor? Looking for the most up-to-date NFL standings? What about a breakdown of team depth charts or the NFL schedule? Pro Football Network has you covered with that and more!
