Another week, another very low total on Thursday Night Football, as the Los Angeles Chargers will be without both Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen, and the Las Vegas Raiders are coming off a zero-point performance last week.
With several key players out, which player prop bets should you be targeting for Chargers vs. Raiders? Is Austin Ekeler capable of carrying the load offensively, and who can step up on this Raiders offense? Let’s take a look at our favorite Chargers vs. Raiders player prop bets.
Top Chargers vs. Raiders Player Prop Bets
Austin Ekeler Over 26.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Ben Rolfe: There is every chance that we could see the Ekeler show for the Chargers this week. With Herbert out for the season, and Allen dealing with a heel injury, Ekeler is the main spear of the offense.
Gone are the days when he could vanquish teams on the ground, but in the passing game, he could be a safety valve for Easton Stick.
Ekeler’s usage in the passing game has been a little bit random over the past five weeks, bouncing between topping 30 receiving yards and failing to record more than 10 on alternate weeks. However, with the passing game in tatters, we could see a huge number of targets for Ekeler tonight.
He may not be the RB he once was, but Ekeler is still one of the best pass-catching backs in the business. It would not be a surprise to see him utilized a lot as a receiver this week with Allen ruled out.
Austin Ekeler Under 46.5 Rushing Yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Brian Blewis: This goes against the conventional wisdom of a team wanting to rely more heavily on their running game with a backup quarterback, but this line appears to be too high, in my opinion.
When Herbert was under center, Ekeler had been very inefficient as a runner this season, averaging just 3.7 yards per carry. Ekeler’s 2.2 yards before contact on average is his lowest since 2019, and his 1.4 yards after contact per carry is by far the worst of his career.
MORE: PFN’s FREE NFL Playoff Predictor
In nine games since returning from his Week 1 injury, Ekeler only went over this line four times. Now, without the threat of Herbert, defenses will be less afraid of the Chargers’ passing attack and can stack the box against them, which could make Ekeler’s rushing efficiency drop even further.
Quentin Johnston Under 26.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Blewis: This line is a bit inflated because Allen is out with an injury, but I’m still fading Quentin Johnston.
Johnston is coming off his best game of his rookie season, with three catches for 91 yards, and he had a season-high in yards and catches the previous week as well. But 79 of his receiving yards came in garbage time when the Chargers were down 17-0 in the fourth quarter.
Even as road underdogs tonight, I’m not expecting as much of a negative game script for the Chargers in this one, and if we have learned anything from Johnston this season, it’s that he can be very unreliable. Seems like a good opportunity to sell high, even with a short number.
Gerald Everett Anytime Touchdown (+550 at FanDuel)
Kyle Soppe: Gerald Everett was the featured tight end for the Bolts in Week 14 (46 snaps to 16 for Donald Parham Jr.), and we’re getting a nice discount because of the QB situation in Los Angeles now that Herbert has been ruled out for the season.
I don’t expect there to be a ton of touchdowns in this game, but we saw Jake Browning debut with a sub-5.0 aDOT, and if Stick follows a similar confidence-gaining script, Everett is in a position to see plenty of looks in the red zone.
2023 Chargers aDOT
- Joshua Palmer: 12.5
- Keenan Allen: 9.6
- Donald Parham Jr.: 7.4
- Gerald Everett: 4.2
Khalil Mack Over 0.75 Sacks (-140 at DraftKings)
Blewis: Our first defensive player prop we’ve given out this season! With injuries to key offensive players, there aren’t as many player prop bets available, so we have to get a bit more creative with what we like.
Khalil Mack had six sacks the last time these two teams played, and you know he always has the Raiders circled on his calendar as a revenge game, even with Jon Gruden and Mike Mayock gone.
MORE: Super Bowl 58 Odds
For the season, Aidan O’Connell, who was the starting quarterback the last time they played the Chargers, has a pressure-to-sack ratio of 22.1% according to Pro Football Focus. Of quarterbacks with at least 200 dropbacks this season, that’s the sixth-worst in the NFL.
To make matters worse, O’Connell will be without his best offensive lineman again, LT Kolton Miller. At Pro Football Focus, Miller has the 11th-best pass-blocking grade of all offensive tackles this season. Miller’s absence will be a huge blow in protecting O’Connell’s blind side, and in particular, stopping Mack.
Davante Adams Over 68.5 Receiving Yards (-113 at FanDuel)
Rolfe: This line immediately stood out as being too low for a player of Adams’ caliber. The Raiders WR has been targeted 43 times in the past four weeks, and has crossed the 70 receiving yard mark in three of those games.
In the past four games, the Chargers have allowed over 500 yards to opposing WRs. That may not seem a lot, but when you consider one of those games was against the Patriots’ excuse of a passing offense, it seems a lot better.
MORE: Best Touchdown Bets for Raiders vs. Chargers
In that game, the Patriots’ WRs had just 86 receiving yards, dragging down the overall average. In the other three games, the Chargers allowed an average of 140 yards per game to opposing receivers.
While Hunter Renfrow and Jakobi Meyers continue to be involved in the offense, Adams is still the main guy. This very well could be a vintage performance from Adams as the Raiders look to bounce back from a humiliating shutout at home last week.
Jakobi Meyers Over 41.5 Receiving Yards (-113 at FanDuel)
Soppe: Jakobi Meyers has caught 85% of his targets over his past five games, and the Chargers are the fifth-worst pass defense on a per-attempt basis.
Davante Adams is going to demand the attention of the few resources that the Chargers have on that side of the ball, and considering Khalil Mack had six sacks in their first meeting, quick strike passes to Meyers are certainly possible.
I think his catch total is very much in play as well, I’m siding with the yardage total for the sheer reason that it has the potential to require less from the QB position in terms of quality volume.
Our Betting Lines page has the freshest lines and promos to get BANG for your buck. PFN’s FREE Parlay Calculator and Betting Odds Calculator are also available for your betting process! New to sports betting? Check out our guide on How to Bet on the NFL. Visit our Sports Betting Legal Tracker on how to bet legally in the U.S.