Despite scoring just three points last week, the Minnesota Vikings saw their standing in the NFC playoff picture improve as they advanced to 7-6 heading into Week 15. The Vikings remained the sixth seed last week but are now a game ahead of the chasing pack for the final two Wild Card spots in the NFC.
Minnesota Vikings Playoff Chances – Week 15 Update
Note that this article was originally published on Saturday, Dec. 16 at 7:15 a.m. ET before Saturday’s games began. The results of this week’s games are below and will continue to be updated throughout the day.
After Week 15, the Vikings remain the No. 6 seed in the NFC.
Saturday Games
Bengals (8-6) defeated Vikings (7-7)
Lions (10-4) defeated Broncos (7-7)
1 p.m. Games Update
Panthers (2-12) defeated Falcons (6-8)
Buccaneers (7-7) defeated the Packers (6-8)
Saints (7-7) defeated the Giants (5-9)
Browns (9-5) defeated Bears (5-9)
4 p.m. Games Update
Rams (7-7) defeated Commanders (4-10)
49ers (11-3) defeated Cardinals (3-11)
Monday Night Football Update
Seahawks (7-7) defeated Eagles (10-4)
Keep reading below to see the playoff scenarios for the Vikings entering Saturday of Week 15. And head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture.
What Were the Vikings’ Playoff Chances and Scenarios Entering Week 15?
Despite a rough week offensively, the Vikings saw their chances of making the playoffs improve last week. Minnesota now has a 63% chance of making the playoff this season, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI). Additionally, the Vikings head into this week with a 13.5% chance of winning the division after both of their main rivals lost last week.
Things could not have fallen much better for the Vikings last week. On the field, they struggled to victory, but around them, everything fell into place nicely. The Los Angeles Rams, Seattle Seahawks, and Green Bay Packers all lost to leave the Vikings a game ahead of them all in terms of winning percentage. That has given the Vikings some room for error entering the final four weeks of the season.
MORE: Minnesota Vikings Depth Chart
From this point forward, if Minnesota goes 4-0, they are in the playoffs, and no one can stop them. Even going 3-1 or 2-2 may very well be enough when we take into account NFL playoff tiebreaker scenarios.
The best-case scenario for the Vikings this week in terms of the Wild Card picture is for them to have a two-game lead over the entire field. A win for Minnesota would move them to 8-6, which ensures they will remain at least one game ahead of the rest of the Wild Card picture.
Losses for the Packers, Rams, Seahawks, Falcons, and Saints would put the Vikings two games ahead of the entire field with three weeks to play. From that point, it would take a monumental collapse for Minnesota to miss the playoffs. Even if just one of those teams wins, Minnesota would have a two-game lead over the eighth spot in the NFC standings.
On the other side of things, if the Vikings lose and all the other results go against them, then we are somewhere close to back where we started last week. The Vikings would still be the sixth seed thanks to head-to-head tiebreakers and their superior conference record. However, they would be in a five-way tie for two playoff spots, with potentially two teams a further game back.
In the middle of those two extremes are a lot of variations that could see Minnesota’s playoff chances climb into the 75% range or plummet back toward 50%. However, it is not just the Wild Card race that could be impacted; the outcome of the Vikings’ Week 15 game could have a major impact on the direction of the NFC North title.
What Do the Vikings Need To Happen To Win the NFC North?
Entering Week 15, the Vikings are two games back from the Lions in the race for the NFC North. Despite their chances being only 13.5% according to ESPN’s FPI, Minnesota actually controls their own destiny heading into this week, thanks to two games in three weeks against the Lions.
The simplest way to look at it is that if the Vikings go 4-0, they are the NFC North champions. In doing so, they will catch up on the two games with the Lions and have a head-to-head advantage over their rivals. Additionally, by going 4-0, they will hold off the Packers for the top spot in the division.
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There are other scenarios that could see the Vikings win the division. For every loss they have, they will need the Lions to lose two more. If the Vikings go 3-1, they need the Lions to go 1-3, and if they go 2-2, they need the Lions to go 0-4.
As part of that, the Vikings could need the Packers to finish at most one game ahead of them. For example, if the Vikings go 2-2, the Packers cannot be better than 3-1, or they will take the division. If the Packers do win just one more game than the Vikings down the stretch, then it will come down to playoff tiebreakers.
If the Vikings lose to the Packers in Week 17, they would be tied in terms of head-to-head. However, if the Vikings go 2-2 including beating the Packers, then they would have a huge tiebreaker for the division in the event of a two or three-way tie for the division.
Similarly, if the Packers beat the Vikings and the Lions only win one game the rest of the way, including being swept by the Vikings, then Minnesota would have the tiebreaker. It is hard to see how this division ends in a three-way tie from here, but the Vikings largely control their own destiny on that front.
With three divisional games for the Vikings and two left for the Packers and Lions, a lot can happen from here on out in terms of those divisional and common game tiebreakers.
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