Making lineup decisions can be the most frustrating — or most rewarding — part of fantasy football. Here to help you make those decisions are our start ’em and sit ’em picks. Lineup decisions are crucial as fantasy managers make that final championship push. Let’s take a look at our top Week 16 start/sit plays.
Start ‘Em Picks for Week 16
Joe Flacco, QB, Cleveland Browns (at HOU)
It is the year 2023, and Joe Flacco is almost a QB1 in the fantasy semifinals. What a time to be alive!
What more can you really say about the greatest Joe to ever play QB (that’s a joke, everyone)? The man spent three months at home on his couch, got a call from the Cleveland Browns, walked in, and started airing it out like 2012 Matthew Stafford.
Flacco has attempted a staggering 133 passes over his three starts with the Browns. He’s thrown two or more touchdowns in each game, and the Browns have won two straight games.
Now, Flacco gets a Houston Texans defense allowing 18.4 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, the 10th-most in the league.
Flacco hasn’t scored fewer than 17 fantasy points in any of his three starts. Fantasy managers who need to start Flacco will gladly accept that floor. If he can limit the interceptions (five in three games), Flacco can deliver a top-eight performance when we need it most.
Aaron Jones, RB, Green Bay Packers (at CAR)
It was admittedly a tough matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but Aaron Jones thoroughly disappointed in his return from a three-game absence. With AJ Dillon out, Jones did not dominate snaps by any means. In fact, Jones, best known for his receiving ability, was replaced as the third down back in favor of Patrick Taylor.
Dillon is dealing with a broken thumb, and he tried to play last week but ultimately was unable to get cleared. Just one week later, his thumb isn’t going to be magically healed, and I don’t expect him to play. That should give us another week of Jones as the lead back.
It would be nice to see Jones’ volume increase, but we’ll have to settle for what should be an increase in efficiency.
It’s hard to ask for a better spot than against a Carolina Panthers defense allowing the fourth-most points per game to running backs. They’re surrendering 105 rushing yards per game to running backs, and no team has allowed more rushing touchdowns this season. I think Jones scores this week and puts up RB1 numbers when fantasy managers need him most.
Najee Harris, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. CIN)
You can include Jaylen Warren in this as well, but I’m going with Najee Harris because he remains the lead back.
On the season, the Cincinnati Bengals allow the 16th-most points per game to running backs. That makes them seem like an average matchup, but recently, they’ve been the gift that keeps on giving.
Just last week, Ty Chandler, making the first start of his career, ran for 132 yards against Cincinnati. When these teams met a month ago, Harris and Warren combined for 148 yards on 28 carries, and it was Harris who got the short touchdown.
This doesn’t need to be overly complicated. The Bengals are a favorable matchup, allowing 4.5 yards per attempt to running backs. The Steelers want to run the ball and should be able to do so with their one-two punch. And when they get to the goal line, it’s usually Harris. Start him.
Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets (vs. WAS)
This is admittedly an ambitious choice, but I am choosing to favor talent and matchup over quarterback situation. With the New York Jets losing last week, they are officially eliminated from postseason contention. As a result, whatever small chance existed that Aaron Rodgers would return is now gone as well.
Zach Wilson had been playing better recently but left last week’s game with a concussion. If he can’t play, Garrett Wilson will have to contend with Trevor Siemian at quarterback. That is obviously not ideal, but here’s to hoping it doesn’t matter against the worst pass defense in the NFL.
MORE: Fantasy News Tracker
The Washington Commanders allow the second-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. No team allows more fantasy points per game to WRs lined up on the outside than the 20 per contest allowed by Washington. Only the Eagles have allowed more touchdowns to wide receivers.
This is as good as it gets. Wilson is immensely talented. And I know this technically doesn’t mean much, but he hasn’t posted back-to-back duds all season. Wilson has five single-digit fantasy point outings this season, and his lowest point total in games following those has been 15. Let’s get another Wilson rebound special this week.
Calvin Ridley, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars (at TB)
Those of you following this column all season know that Calvin Ridley has never been on this side of things. He’s consistently been on the “sit” list because he’s consistently been ranked way higher than his on-field performance warranted.
After last week’s disappointment, I think the consensus is finally coming around to the fact that Ridley just isn’t that good anymore. And now I’m telling you to start him?
This would obviously be much better if Trevor Lawrence can clear the concussion protocol. But even if he doesn’t, C.J. Beathard is capable of getting the ball to his No. 1 WR. With both Christian Kirk and Zay Jones out, that man is now Ridley by default.
Backup quarterbacks often lock onto their primary read. With Travis Etienne a total disaster on the ground, the Jacksonville Jaguars’ best path to success against the Bucs’ pass-funnel defense is to scheme the ball to Ridley. That should mean a whole lot of volume against a defense allowing the eighth-most points per game to wide receivers.
For as bad as Ridley has been, volume hasn’t been a problem, as he’s seen 25 targets over his past two games. Unfortunately, he only caught nine of them. That’s in part due to the fact that Ridley can’t consistently create separation, but also due to the lack of layup passes. I’m cautiously optimistic we get more of those this week, raising Ridley’s PPR floor. If he can score, he should post WR1 numbers.
Darren Waller, TE, New York Giants (at PHI)
After a five-game absence, Darren Waller made his return in Week 15. He only played 42% of the snaps, but he ran 22 routes and was targeted on a whopping six of them. That’s a 27% rate.
Waller was intentionally limited in his first game back from yet another hamstring strain. and he escaped the game with no aggravation. Thus, it’s likely that his role is going to expand this week. While he’s unlikely to return to the 90% snap count level he was at earlier in the season, even 70% would go a long way.
The Giants still lack a clear top receiver — it was always supposed to be Waller. This week, it very well might be. If Waller is seeing six targets on limited snaps, he can easily get to 10 with a larger snap share.
The Eagles allow the 13th-most fantasy points per game to tight ends, but I also feel it’s worth pointing out they allow the most points per game to wide receivers…by a lot (4.1 points per game more than the next-worst team). Waller is a de facto wide receiver, and could be in for a strong game this week.
Sit ‘Em Picks for Week 16
Sam Howell, QB, Washington Commanders (at NYJ)
After six straight games with 18+ fantasy points, Sam Howell completely flopped in what should’ve been a favorable matchup against the Los Angeles Rams last week. Howell threw for 102 yards, one touchdown, and one interception before getting benched for Jacoby Brissett.
Head coach Ron Rivera claims the benching was to protect Howell and that Howell remains the starter. I somewhat believe him, but the fact remains Brissett outplayed Howell and almost brought the Commanders back.
I fully expect Howell to start this week, but do you really want to start him against the Jets? They may not have a good offense, but the Jets defense is as elite as ever. New York is allowing 13.4 points per game to quarterbacks, the second-fewest in the league.
Add in the risk of another benching and there may not be a whole lot of slingin’ for Sammy in Week 16.
Javonte Williams, RB, Denver Broncos (at NE)
Javonte Williams has been incredibly frustrating to roster this season. Every time it looks like he’s taken full control of this backfield, the Denver Broncos throw us a curveball.
Williams was coming off three straight games of at least a 60% snap share, but that dropped to 48% against the Detroit Lions in Week 15. Of course, we can explain it away with the game never being competitive.
More importantly, Williams’ struggles have been pretty predictable this season. He’s flopped against the Minnesota Vikings, Browns, and Lions. Those are all top-10 run defenses.
This week, the Broncos should fare much better at home against the New England Patriots. However, the Patriots allow just 3.3 yards per attempt to running backs, the second-lowest rate in the league. The only reason their points per game allowed is 17th is because of touchdowns.
Sure, Williams could score. But he’s supposed to be more than a touchdown-or-bust RB2. If that’s good enough for you this week, by all means, start him. I would just temper expectations that he’ll be able to provide anything more than a floor game.
Ty Chandler and Alexander Mattison, RBs, Minnesota Vikings (vs. DET)
We don’t yet know whether Alexander Mattison will return after missing last week’s game due to an ankle injury. Even if he does, I still expect Ty Chandler to be heavily involved. He earned that with last week’s performance. With that said, this is a situation to avoid either way.
Even if Mattison doesn’t return, Chandler is in a very difficult spot against a Lions defense that is elite against the run. After last week’s performance, they are now the No. 1 run defense for fantasy purposes, allowing just 16.7 points per game to the position.
MORE: FREE NFL Playoff Predictor
Detroit allows just 3.5 yards per attempt and 62 yards per game. As the clear starter, Chandler would likely still see decent volume, but don’t expect anywhere near the same efficiency as last week.
If Mattison returns, then we’re looking at what is likely a 50/50 timeshare against a defense where either back by himself wouldn’t be a good option. The saving grace for Chandler this week needs to be volume. With Mattison back, neither is likely to see volume, making both options to fade out of your lineup.
Terry McLaurin, WR, Washington Commanders (at NYJ)
This could really go for any Commanders wide receiver, but let’s highlight Terry McLaurin because of his mega-smash game he just had.
McLaurin is coming off his best game of the season, catching six of 12 targets for 141 yards and a touchdown. It was quite the rebound after four straight games of sub-10 fantasy points, culminating in a zero prior to the Commanders’ Week 14 bye.
There are two issues with McLaurin’s performance that should give fantasy managers pause. First, it came against a soft Rams pass defense. This week, things will be much tougher against a Jets defense allowing the fewest points per game to wide receivers.
Second, the bulk of his production came after Brissett displaced Howell at quarterback, and Howell is expected to be back under center this week. It’s difficult to bench a guy like McLaurin, especially with all the injuries at the wide receiver position. But another single-digit outing is likely in the cards.
Jakobi Meyers, WR, Las Vegas Raiders (at KC)
After the Raiders’ 63-21 drubbing of the hapless Los Angeles Chargers, there might be some belief that this offense is back on track. Jakobi Meyers rewarded fantasy managers with 15.68 fantasy points. We would sign for that every week, but the problem is that the production was very flukey.
Meyers caught just two passes for 32 yards and a touchdown. He also threw a touchdown. If a wide receiver scores two touchdowns, forgive me for expecting more than 15 fantasy points.
The biggest issue for Meyers is volume. Over his first six games this season, Meyers saw 56 targets, an average of 9.3 per game. Since then, he’s seen 30 targets in seven games, an average of 4.3. That’s…not great.
Aidan O’Connell may be better for the Raiders than Jimmy Garoppolo, but he’s not better for fantasy managers.
Although Meyers smashed against the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 12, catching six balls for 79 yards and a touchdown, it was really an anomalous performance. The Chiefs allow the seventh-fewest points per game to wide receivers. I would not expect a repeat, making Meyers an uninspiring option this week.
Tucker Kraft, TE, Green Bay Packers (at CAR)
Last week, I started Tucker Kraft over Kyle Pitts in a league. It worked out. This week, I am going back to Pitts. Why? Because of the matchup.
Kraft has played well since replacing Luke Musgrave as the Packers’ TE1. The key for Kraft has been the full assumption of the role, as there has been no timeshare or tight end by committee. Kraft is playing around 95% of the snaps every week.
For as bad as the Panthers are offensively, and as bad as they are against the run, they’ve actually been excellent against the pass. They allow just 10.0 points per game to tight tends, the sixth-fewest in the league. Add in the fact that their run-funnel nature should result in a whole lot of Jones out of the backfield, Kraft is poised to disappoint fantasy managers who might be inclined to chase last week’s production.
Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Setting DFS lineups? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer, Start/Sit Optimizer, and DFS Lineup Optimizer to help you make the right decision!