Cincinnati Bengals Playoff Possibilities: The No. 6 Seed Awaits This Weekend

If Cincinnati Bengals fans are wondering when the last time the playoff picture was this muddled through 14 weeks of a season, the answer is simple:

Never.

The Steelers, Colts, Texans, Broncos, Bengals, and Bills are all 7-6. That’s the most teams with a record of 7-6 since the league went to its current divisional alignment in 2002. Only twice before have there been five 7-6 teams at this point — two years ago in 2021 and in 2014, when the top 7-6 team was seeded eighth, two spots out of the final Wild Card spot.

What it means is tiebreakers will be in play.

The Bengals Could Be the No. 6 Seed by the Weekend

On the surface, tiebreaker implementation may not sound like good news for a Bengals team with a division record of 0-4 and conference record of 3-6.

But none of the teams tied at 7-6 have reached six conference wins yet, so it’s not as though the Bengals are guaranteed to be locked out in that regard.

And those conference records could be moot anyhow, as head-to-head tiebreakers are the first order of business. And, the Bengals have positioned themselves well with victories against fellow 7-6 teams Buffalo and Indianapolis. They also have a win against 8-5 Jacksonville, which will help if the Jaguars stumble out of the lead in the AFC South.

And the Bengals still have a chance to secure a head-to-head edge on the Chiefs should the Broncos catch the defending champs and win the AFC West.

The PFN #Bengals podcast is moving at Chase Brown speed.

The newest episode is posted, and the question has shifted from can they make the playoffs to how good of a seed can get they get?

Plus an early look at the Vikings.

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— Jay Morrison (@ByJayMorrison) December 11, 2023

Before going too far into the weeds, let’s take a look at the best possible outcomes this weekend. The Bengals could move up from the No. 10 spot to No. 6, and it wouldn’t require too many things happening beyond a Cincinnati win against Minnesota on Saturday.

MORE: Cincinnati Bengals Depth Chart 

And none of those things will occur on Sunday.

If the Colts beat the Steelers and the Lions beat the Broncos in the two Saturday games following Cincinnati-Minnesota, the Bengals vault all the way to No. 6 and stay there regardless of what happens in the rest of the games Sunday.

If the Steelers beat the Colts, the Bengals will remain outside the top seven spots unless the Titans can upset the Texans, regardless of anything else that happens Sunday.

Obviously, the Bengals will have longer-range rooting interests in Sunday’s games, which include:

• Cleveland (8-5) at Chicago (5-8)
• Houston (7-6) at Tennessee (4-9)
• Dallas (10-4) at Buffalo (7-6)
• Baltimore (11-3) at Jacksonville (8-6)

As well-positioned as the Bengals are with head-to-head wins against the Colts, Bills, and Jaguars, the bloated middle class in the AFC could create a problem because the deeper the pool, the more likely the Bengals are to sink.

Their conference record becomes a problem if there are multiple teams involved in the tiebreaker because the chances of a head-to-head sweep decrease.

When there is a three- or four-team tiebreaker, the only way for the head-to-head factor to apply is for one team to have beaten all of the others to advance or one team having lost to all of the others to be eliminated.

Regardless of whether it’s a five-, six- seven- or even eight-way tie, that field will be reduced to four at the most before the tiebreakers kick in. That’s because everything starts with advancing just one team per division into the fray with the other teams.

The Bengals cannot be the AFC North representative if they finish tied with the Browns or Steelers or both, regardless of what happens from here on out. Both of those teams already have three wins, and the best the Bengals can finish in the division is 2-4.

Cleveland is already a game ahead of the 7-6 scrum, so having the Browns continue to play well and get a higher Wild Card seed — or win the division — isn’t the worst thing that can happen.

Pittsburgh is far less likely to go on that kind of run, so Bengals fans should be rooting against the Steelers every step of the way (as if that wouldn’t be the case in any season and/or situation).

The best-case scenario for the Bengals would be to finish tied with some combination of the Bills and Colts/Jaguars while keeping the Broncos out of it. That’s because the Bengals don’t play the Broncos, eliminating the “sweep everybody” mandate for head to head.

Another scenario that seemed highly unlikely a few weeks ago is becoming more realistic, which involves the Broncos winning the AFC West and forcing the Chiefs into the Wild Card mix. That’s because the Bengals have the chance to win a head-to-head tiebreaker against Kansas City in Week 17.

The Broncos are one game behind the Chiefs overall, but Denver has a good chance to win the tiebreaker if it finishes with the same record. The first tiebreaker of head to head is not in play as the teams split.

The next tiebreaker is division record, and while the Chiefs have the edge 3-1 to 2-2, all it would take is a Kansas City loss to the Raiders or Chargers to give Denver a chance to draw even.

MORE: Week 15 NFL Power Rankings

And if that happens, where Kansas City and Denver have the same overall record and same division record, the next tiebreaker would be games against common opponents.

The Broncos currently have a 5-3 to 5-4 edge in that category, with a big game coming up Saturday night against the Lions.

KC-Denver Common Foes

• Chargers: (KC 1-0, Denver 1-0)
• Raiders: (KC 1-0, Denver 0-1)
• Dolphins: (KC 0-1, Denver 0-1)
• Bills: (KC 0-1, Denver 1-0)
• Jets: (KC 1-0, Denver 0-1)
• Bears: (KC 1-0, Denver 1-0)
• Packers: (KC 0-1, Denver 1-0)
• Vikings: (KC 1-0, Denver 1-0)
• Lions: (KC 0-1)

Remember, a Broncos loss to the Lions could help move the Bengals into the No. 6 spot. But a Denver win wouldn’t be the worst thing if the goal is to have the Broncos, and not the Chiefs, win the division.

Everything obviously starts with the Bengals beating the Vikings. If that happens, come back next week to explore the possibilities of Cincinnati climbing all the way to the No. 5 seed.

If the Vikings win, come back next week to see what needs to happen so the Bengals can claw their way to No. 7.

Want to predict the rest of the 2023 season with our FREE NFL Playoff Predictor? Looking for the most up-to-date NFL standings? What about a breakdown of team depth charts or the NFL schedule? Pro Football Network has you covered with that and more!