The Green Bay Packers and New York Giants meet in a split Monday Night Football matchup, opposite the Miami Dolphins vs. Tennessee Titans game. The Packers entered the season with a weapons corps of all first or second-year players and a young quarterback who had been waiting in Aaron Rodgers’ wings for two seasons.
In other words, expectations were low. And there have been times this season where the Packers fell flat on their faces. Over the past three weeks against the Chargers, Lions, and Chiefs, they’ve completely flipped their fortunes in the NFC.
Meanwhile, the Giants announced that Tommy DeVito would start over Tyrod Taylor, who had recently come off of injured reserve.
Green Bay Packers vs. New York Giants Predictions
What does the PFN selection committee think of Monday’s battle?
- Beasley: Packers
- Bearman: Packers
- Miller: Packers
- Morrison: Packers
- Robinson: Packers
This one feels pretty simple. The Giants are fighting for a high NFL Draft pick, and the Packers are fighting for a playoff appearance.
Giants Pass Protection vs. Packers Pass Rush
According to Inside Edge, Giants QBs have been sacked on 16.4% of pass attempts this season, which is the worst mark in the NFL. That’s remarkable, considering Sam Howell was at one point on pace to set the sack record for the position.
No team is particularly close to New York here. Their rate is 5.4% higher than the Jets.
Meanwhile, according to Pro Football Reference, the Packers have the fifth-highest pressure rate in the NFL. Their sack rate is significantly lower, but they have the talent on the outside to get home when a quarterback holds onto the ball a bit too long. Additionally, the Giants’ offensive line is an unmitigated disaster.
The most appalling matchup here is Rashan Gary against Tyre Phillips at right tackle.
Jordan Love’s Emergence
Jordan Love is having two seasons wrapped into one. The first is a season from Weeks 1-8 where he posted a 0.044 EPA-per-play mark with a -5.1 CPOE. He wasn’t efficient, and although his CPOE was negative, you didn’t need a fancy number to tell your eyes what they were seeing. The first-year starter was struggling.
But the Packers flipped a switch against the Rams in Week 9.
MORE: PFN’s FREE NFL Playoff Predictor
Since then, Love is third in EPA (0.273) and fifth in CPOE (3.8). He’s showing off the unique arm talent he’s always had, switching angles and creating off-platform. But unlike early in the season, he’s become more consistent in his ball placement, and his ultra-young weapons are stepping up in a big way.
Love has posted a QBR over 90 in each of the past two outings, against NFL playoff contenders like the Lions and Chiefs. Although Detroit’s defense has fallen off a cliff, Kansas City’s is particularly impressive.
Packers Rushing Attack vs. Giants Run Defense
Inside Edge tells us that the Packers are 8-2 since the start of 2022 when they run for 120 yards or more. Meanwhile, the Giants have allowed 141.4 rushing yards per game over that time, which is the worst mark in the NFL.
But those generalized numbers mean nothing without context. Teams that are winning tend to run the ball more often, so their rushing volume will rise to the 120-yard mark more often.
But the Giants are genuinely bad at defending against the run, despite some of the talent they have on the defensive line.
They’re 24th in rushing success rate (41.6%) and 29th in rushing EPA (-0.040). However, the Packers shouldn’t look to simply turn around and hand the ball off, either. They’re a better passing team than running. While that’s true for nearly every team every year, it’s particularly true for some teams.
Green Bay’s dropback EPA is 0.115, while their rushing EPA is -0.106. They’re sixth in dropback EPA and only 19th in rushing EPA.
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