No one feels the need to talk about it right now, but the Detroit Lions might have long-term quarterback questions to address in the 2024 NFL Draft. With uncertainty slowly mounting over current starter Jared Goff, should they turn their eyes to the position next April?
Jared Goff Competent, but Drawing Questions Over Long-Term Viability for Detroit Lions
Goff proved one thing in 2022 when he threw for 4,428 yards, 29 touchdowns, and seven interceptions in a Pro Bowl campaign. He proved that, within a well-constructed scheme, with quality weapons and protection, he can be a very good NFL starting QB.
The 2023 season hasn’t brought a stark regression from Goff — at least on the surface. He’s still throwing over two touchdowns to every pick; he’s still passing for a healthy 7.6 yards per attempt. And he’s on pace to set a career high in completion percentage.
Most importantly, Goff’s Lions were 9-3 entering Week 14. They’re well on their way to a playoff appearance, and potentially an NFC North title as well.
But lost underneath the surface-level stats and markers are concerning developments. Most notably, Goff’s turnover discipline has been a major issue down the stretch, particularly in recent weeks, and he doesn’t have the physical talent to counteract that.
Against the Packers on Thanksgiving, Goff fumbled the football three times, and his blunders helped lead to a 22-29 loss. The week before, in a close win against the Chicago Bears, he threw three picks, keeping Chicago in the game.
And now this week, in a loss against Chicago, Goff threw a bad fourth-down interception to Jaylon Johnson, almost threw a second pick right to Jaquan Brisker at the second level, and fumbled a snap that led directly to a Chicago touchdown in the fourth quarter, putting the Bears up two scores.
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When he’s on, Goff has some of the best accuracy in the NFL. And the Lions, at the very least, are good enough to make the playoffs with Goff and compete. But with Goff showing so much volatility in crucial spots, one has to wonder: How far can Detroit go with him?
That question only becomes more important when you revisit Goff’s contract — set to expire in 2025.
Goff theoretically would be due for an extension. If 2022 is our last reference point, there’s an argument to make for him. This year, however, Goff’s inability to avoid turnovers, combined with his lack of elevating natural talent, has put the Lions in tough spots at times. Playoff teams will only expose that more.
There’s potentially a perfect storm brewing for the Lions if they ignore these struggles.
There’s an outcome where Detroit shells top-12 money to Goff on an extension, Ben Johnson leaves, and Goff regresses without the aid of Johnson’s offensive structure — leaving Detroit with a league-average passer on a bloated contract that restricts their roster-building.
That’s the kind of move that can stall out ascending teams. We’ve seen it with Daniel Jones and the Giants, Ryan Tannehill and the Titans — if teams commit too soon to unspectacular QBs, it can break them.
Dan Campbell and Brad Holmes have built a strong-enough culture and roster that the Lions appear here to stay, regardless. But even playoff teams need elevating talent at QB to compete in the modern NFL.
Should the Lions Eye a QB in the 2024 NFL Draft?
It’s too early to panic on Goff. But with his contract expiring within two years, there is a conversation that needs to be had. Should the Lions invest in a young QB and let them learn behind Goff for a year, before taking the reins in 2025?
The Lions do have third-round rookie Hendon Hooker, who has some natural talent. However, he graded as a Day 3 prospect on my personal board in the 2023 NFL Draft. He’s an intriguing signal-caller, but he’s not one who’d preclude me from taking a better prospect in 2024.
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If the Lions make the playoffs, they’ll likely be picking in the 20s, putting them safely out of the mix for passers like Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels, and maybe even J.J. McCarthy.
That said, there are two veteran passers who could fall within the Lions’ range in Round 2: Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. and Oregon’s Bo Nix.
Nix and Penix are both talented players and established producers, who could fall for different reasons. Medicals will be a concern for Penix, while Nix’s space-dominated offensive scheme may draw up questions about his translatability at the NFL level.
Nevertheless, both Nix and Penix have raw tools that make them extremely intriguing at the right price. Penix has a laser for a left arm and the field vision, drive velocity, toughness, and gunslinger mentality to make some truly spectacular plays and throws.
Nix, meanwhile, is a truly elite creator with exceptional athleticism, change-of-direction ability, and feel in off-script situations. He also has the arm elasticity to be a seamless distributor off-platform, maintaining accuracy even in adverse situations.
Penix, in particular, could be an exceptional fit for the Lions with his ability to dice defenses up from the pocket. Provided that he stays healthy, his arm strength, angle freedom, and competitive toughness are somewhat reminiscent of Lions great Matthew Stafford.
At the end of the day, it all depends on how the Lions feel about Goff, and how they feel about the Day 2 QB options in the 2024 NFL Draft. They could easily stick with Goff and Hooker through 2024, and then get a new QB early in the 2025 NFL Draft. There’s no pressure to spend capital right this instant.
That said, the Lions should, at the very least, do their homework on the 2024 NFL Draft QB group. Because if the opportunity comes to grab a QB with the talent to elevate the offense at a discounted cost, it’s not something Detroit should scoff at.
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