We have a Monday Night Football doubleheader tonight, with the Tennessee Titans vs. Miami Dolphins, and the Green Bay Packers vs. New York Giants. Will Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill’s dominance continue against another bad team in the Titans? Will Jordan Love and the Packers keep rolling after their big Sunday Night Football win?
As we do for every game, we have best bets for both of tonight’s games. So let’s get into the Monday Night Football doubleheader best bets, picks, player props, and more.
Monday Night Football Doubleheader Best Bets
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Titans vs. Dolphins Predictions
- Spread
Dolphins -14 - Moneyline
Titans +600, Dolphins -900 - Total
46.5
Bearman: If we know anything, it’s that the Dolphins dominate bad football teams and score at will. The team total is 30.5, a number Miami has cleared in seven of their nine wins. Tennessee allowed 31 to Gardner Minshew II and the Colts. What will Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill do?
Pick: Dolphins team total over 30.5 (+105 at DraftKings)
Blewis: The Dolphins find themselves in a spot they’re very familiar with — heavy favorites in a matchup against a bad team that struggles to defend the pass. Sounds really similar to last week, doesn’t it?
While the Titans’ pass defense isn’t as bad as the Commanders’, they still rank 30th in dropback EPA and 29th in success rate. Good luck slowing down the Dolphins’ passing attack.
MORE: PFN’s FREE NFL Playoff Predictor
For this one, I’m going to give out a sort of unconventional pick — a two-leg SGP. Let’s go with Tyreek Hill to go for 100+ receiving yards and Dolphins -6.5.
In every game they’ve been favored by at least a touchdown this season, they have won by at least that many points. The only time they didn’t cover the game spread was against the Raiders, but they still won by seven.
Pick: Tyreek Hill 100+ receiving yards, Dolphins -6.5 (+119 at FanDuel)
Soppe: The Titans struggle to catch the ball. That’s true on the offensive end, but I’m going to focus on their secondary. They’ve recorded a pick in just 25% of their games this season, a rate that is pacing to rank as the fourth-worst since the winless Detroit Lions of 2008.
Tagovailoa’s interception rate is higher this season than last, but those interceptions haven’t come against this type of defense. Here are the splits for him when playing defenses that rank bottom-five in this stat this season compared to all other games:
- Bottom Five: Intercepted once on 134 passes (0.7%)
- Otherwise: Intercepted nine times on 267 passes (3.4%)
Pick: Tua Tagovailoa under 0.5 interceptions (-130 at DraftKings)
Katz: We’ve been on Derrick Henry overs for the past two weeks. Why? The Titans were home favorites, and the game script was not expected to get away from them — and it didn’t. While they didn’t win both games, they were never far behind, thus keeping Henry involved.
The Titans have lost five games this season by seven points or more. Henry’s largest carry count in those games was 13.
The Dolphins are favored by nearly two touchdowns. This game is in Miami, and the Dolphins’ offense is clicking on all cylinders. The Titans should quickly find themselves in a negative game script. That means more Tyjae Spears and less Henry. That means more passing and less running.
Pick: Derrick Henry under 14.5 rush attempts (-127 at Caesars)
Packers vs. Giants Predictions
- Spread
Packers -6 - Moneyline
Packers -275, Giants +225 - Total
36.5
Bearman: The Packers have not only won four in a row to get back into the playoff race, but they’ve done it against the Chiefs, Lions, and both LA teams. They don’t play a team with a winning record for the rest of the season. Can you say playoffs?
Step 1 is to beat a Giants team that won’t be in the postseason but won two in a row heading into its bye. The line is about where it should be, but the Packers should continue their great play and win this one going away.
Pick: Packers -6.5 (-112 at DraftKings)
Blewis: Jordan Love has been impressive in recent weeks and has cemented himself as a long-term option at the quarterback position for the Green Bay Packers.
But tonight, he will be without Christian Watson, who has been productive as of late. In the Packers’ last three games, Watson has scored a combined four touchdowns. Before that, he had just one touchdown in six games for the season.
Without Watson, Love will be missing his favorite red-zone target, whose red-zone target share of 27% is 7% higher than both Romeo Doubs’ and Jayden Reed’s.
Without his best receiver, and in a game that could potentially feature a positive game script (Green Bay is a road favorite of nearly a touchdown), I’m taking the under on Love’s passing touchdowns. His stock is at an all-time high right now after beating Patrick Mahomes on Sunday Night Football, thus I’m fading.
Pick: Jordan Love under 1.5 passing touchdowns (-130 at FanDuel)
Soppe: DeVito is playing some good football and has realistically looked fine in three of his four appearances this season (min. 20 attempts). No, it’s not exciting, but it doesn’t have to be to cash our bets.
In three of four games, DeVito has cleared his listed passing number for this week with the one exception being the game in Dallas where New York had the ball for under 23 minutes against an elite defense. With Green Bay ranking 24th in average time of possession this season, DeVito being off the field at that level is unlikely.
The Giants are coming off of their bye with an opportunity to lean into what DeVito does best and that should help boost his yardage total. Combine that with a potential game script situation (given the spread in this game) and a season high in pass attempts is very much in play. If you use DeVito’s three non-Cowboys games, his per-pass production requires only 21 attempts to cash this prop.
Pick: Tommy DeVito over 172.5 passing yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Katz: This is a surprisingly low line for a player who has gone over this number in four straight games. Dontayvion Wicks has had a relevant role in the Packers’ passing game all season. Now, with Christian Watson out, Wicks will take over as the other outside receiver opposite Romeo Doubs.
Wicks saw a 60% snap share in games Watson didn’t play. He should run more routes and, thus, see more targets. The Giants allow the sixth-most yards per game to wide receivers. Wicks could hit this in the first half.
Pick: Dontayvion Wicks over 31.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel)
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