With Isiah Pacheco out due to a shoulder injury, the Kansas City Chiefs backfield will now be a two-man committee featuring Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jerick McKinnon. Odds are, most fantasy football managers who picked them up can only start one of them. Which Chiefs RB is the better option in Week 14 against the Buffalo Bills?
Should You Start Clyde Edwards-Helaire in Fantasy This Week?
It has been quite a while since we saw Edwards-Helaire in a prominent role. The last time he saw more than a 50% snap share was in Week 4 of the 2022 season. He played 56% of the snaps.
If you recall, Edwards-Helaire was a 70% snap share player early in his career. He quickly fell out of favor with the Chiefs, losing his job to not only Jerick McKinnon, but seventh-round rookie Isiah Pacheco. CEH was a healthy inactive in last year’s Super Bowl.
Despite rumors that he might be cut this offseason, the Chiefs retained the 2020 first-rounder. He found himself in the RB3 role behind Pacheco and McKinnon. Now, with Pacheco out this, and possibly multiple weeks, CEH finds himself with a prime opportunity to reignite his career.
The biggest question fantasy managers have is which of the Chiefs’ two backs will be the better fantasy asset?
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Head coach Andy Reid provided some insight. According to Charles Goldman, Reid said CEH would be the “No. 1 guy.” I believe him. There is no doubt in my mind that Edwards-Helaire will start against the Bills and every game as long as Pacheco is out.
Of course, as fantasy managers well know, merely starting does not make a running back the better fantasy asset.
The Bills have been a slightly above-average matchup for running backs, allowing the 13th-most fantasy points per game to the position. Teams have been able to run the ball against them, averaging 4.6 yards per carry.
I also fully expect Edwards-Helaire to be the primary goal-line back. If there are any short-yardage carries to be had, CEH should be the guy. The problem for this week is the projected game flow.
Scoring is way down in the NFL this season, but this game projects to be a potential shootout. In a situation where both teams are airing it out, that lends itself to McKinnon seeing a higher snap share than he would in a game where the Chiefs were in control.
Should You Start Jerick McKinnon in Fantasy This Week?
McKinnon hasn’t played in two weeks due to a groin strain. He’s back this week, but how significant his workload will be remains to be seen.
Despite being a fantasy league winner in 2022, McKinnon has seen his role in the offense drastically reduced this year. On the season, McKinnon is playing just 30% of the snaps and has yet to play more than 41% of the snaps in a game.
With that said, there have also been rumors from Kansas City that the team is trying to manage the oft-injured running back’s reps to keep him fresh for the stretch run. Well, the stretch run is upon us, and the team needs him now more than they have all season.
We should see a lot of CEH to start the game, but if the game goes as many expect it will, I would not be surprised if McKinnon out-snapped CEH in this one.
The most appealing aspect of McKinnon’s game is his receiving ability. He’s never going to be the guy seeing 10+ carries. In fact, his highest single-game carry count this year has been three.
While McKinnon has not been used much as a receiver, either, that should change with Pacheco sidelined. It’s that aspect that has me feeling a little better about McKinnon than CEH this week.
The Bills have really struggled against receiving backs this season. Only the Jets see a higher percentage of targets against them go to running backs, and 21% of the total receiving yards allowed by the Bills go to the position, the third-most in the league.
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McKinnon’s best receiving effort this season is three catches for 24 yards. But we know the skills still exist. He had games of 5-56, 8-70, and 7-112 last year.
With the Chiefs deploying a WR corps featuring Rashee Rice and a bunch of XFL talents, now is as good of a time as any to start utilizing McKinnon more as a receiver.
Which of the Chiefs RBs Should You Start?
The PFN Start/Sit Optimizer has this solidly in favor of Edwards-Helaire. He is projected for 9.6 fantasy points, which is comprised of 27 rushing yards, 1.8 receptions, 16.1 receiving yards, and 0.3 touchdowns. McKinnon is projected for 8.1 points.
In my personal weekly rankings, I have these two back-to-back. I did it that way because we really just don’t know. We think we know how the game will go, but what if the Chiefs are able to control the ball better than we expect? That could result in more Edwards-Helaire.
If they fall behind quickly, then it could be a lot of McKinnon. Game script will play a huge factor in which back plays more.
I slightly lean CEH purely because Reid called him the lead back, but the reality is we just don’t know. Both Chiefs backs are startable in fantasy this week in what should be a really fun, high-scoring game.
Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Setting DFS lineups? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer, Start/Sit Optimizer, and DFS Lineup Optimizer to help you make the right decision!
