Having won two of the last four Super Bowls and hosted the AFC Championship Game five years in a row, the Kansas City Chiefs are well-acquainted with the path to the playoffs.
Patrick Mahomes and Co. are on track for another postseason appearance but let’s drill down into the specifics with the help of PFN’s Free Playoff Predictor. When can the Chiefs clinch the AFC West title, and how can KC grab the conference’s No. 1 seed?
Week 14 Update
Bills (7-6) defeat Chiefs (8-5)
Ravens (10-3) defeated Rams (6-7)
Browns (8-5) defeated Jaguars (8-5)
Broncos (7-6) defeated Chargers (5-8)
Can the Kansas City Chiefs Clinch the AFC West in Week 14?
The AFC West wasn’t billed as a super-division heading into the 2023 campaign like last season, and the results have largely been similar.
MORE: Kansas City Chiefs Depth Chart
With an 8-4 record after 13 weeks, the Chiefs are again atop the division and haven’t faced much in the way of competition from the Denver Broncos, Los Angeles Chargers, and Las Vegas Raiders.
While none of those clubs have bottomed out, Kansas City still has a two-game lead over Denver (6-6) and a three-game lead over Los Angeles and Las Vegas (both 5-7).
Consequently, ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) gives the Chiefs a 95.3% chance of winning the AFC West this season, the third-highest division-winning mark in the NFL behind the San Francisco 49ers and Miami Dolphins.
Still, Kansas City cannot clinch its eighth consecutive AFC West title this week. Even if the Chiefs beat the Buffalo Bills and the Broncos lose to the Chargers, Kansas City would only have a three-game advantage over both teams with four weeks remaining in the regular season.
In that scenario, the Chiefs could potentially secure the division crown in Week 15, depending on how the Broncos, Chargers, and Raiders perform and the outcomes of various playoff tiebreakers.
Can the Chiefs Still Land the AFC’s No. 1 Seed?
Kansas City has grabbed the AFC’s No. 1 seed three times with Mahomes under center (2018, 2020, 2022) and won the Super Bowl twice in those three seasons.
This year, the Chiefs are again in contention for the top seed and a first-round playoff bye in what has become a three-team race for first place in the conference.
KC has a 24% of earning the No. 1 seed entering Week 13. While that’s the third-best mark in the conference, the Chiefs are well behind the Ravens (37%) and Miami Dolphins (33%).
Baltimore already has nine wins, one more than Kansas City, while the two clubs will not face each other this season. As such, the Chiefs will need to match the Ravens’ record and finish with a better mark within the conference. Baltimore is currently 6-3 in the AFC; KC is 6-1.
The Chiefs will also need to win one more game than the Dolphins down the stretch to secure the top seed, but they won’t need to worry about conference record with Miami. Kansas City already defeated the Dolphins in Week 9, giving Andy Reid’s team a head-to-head tiebreaker.
Want to predict the rest of the 2023 season with our FREE NFL Playoff Predictor? Looking for the most up-to-date NFL standings? What about a breakdown of team depth charts or the NFL schedule? Pro Football Network has you covered with that and more!