For the third time in five weeks, it’ll be a no-stress Sunday for Miami Dolphins fans.
With the Dolphins playing Monday night this week, the team and its supporters can sit back and watch how the rest of the AFC fares — with three impactful games on the schedule.
The weekend’s matchup with the most significance for the Dolphins’ playoff scenarios? The Buffalo Bills vs. the Kansas City Chiefs in Arrowhead Stadium.
1 p.m. ET Games Update
Ravens (10-3) defeated Rams (6-7)
Browns (8-5) defeated Jaguars (8-5)
How Bills vs. Chiefs Impacts Miami Dolphins’ Playoff Scenarios
Miami (9-3) enters Week 14 all but assured of a playoff spot. They own a three-game lead over the Bills in the division and are also three games up in the loss column on the No. 8 seed Pittsburgh Steelers (in the off chance the Dolphins need to get in as a Wild Card).
Their odds to get in, per ESPN, are overwhelming: greater than 99% to make the playoffs, including 96% to do so as AFC East champions. ESPN gives the Dolphins a roughly one-in-three chance to secure the AFC’s top seed.
MORE: NFL Tiebreaker Scenarios
While the Dolphins cannot clinch a playoff berth this week, they can lower their magic number to one with a win over the Tennessee Titans and a Bills loss to K.C. You can play around with the different scenarios with PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor.
But is that the best possible outcome for Mike McDaniel’s bunch?
Dolphins Should Join Bills Mafia in Week 14
While it would surely feel great for Dolphins fans to see Patrick Mahomes throw dirt on the Bills’ playoff hopes (Buffalo is currently 24.7% to get in but probably needs to finish 4-1), it’s better to think strategically.
Schadenfreude isn’t the No. 1 object. Winning the Super Bowl is.
And the easiest way to win the Super Bowl is as a conference’s No. 1 seed.
A Bills win would significantly improve the Dolphins’ chances to secure the bye. It would give the Chiefs a fifth loss and cripple K.C.’s hopes for a bye. A Bills loss, meanwhile, wouldn’t be a catastrophic outcome for Miami, but it would cut into the team’s margin for error.
The only legitimate reason for Dolphin fans to root for the Chiefs (8-4) Sunday is out of concern over potentially facing Buffalo in the postseason. While the Bills are a bit of a trainwreck this season, they’re still sixth in DVOA — just two spots below the Dolphins.
MORE: A Look at Miami’s Potential Wild Card Opponents
There’s an outside, but still plausible, chance the Dolphins will face the Bills in back-to-back weeks — in the season finale and then again in the Wild Card round. The Bills would be a tougher out in the postseason than, say, the Cleveland Browns, Cincinnati Bengals, Indianapolis Colts, or Steelers.
But that’s shortsighted thinking. Do you know what’s even better than a win in the Wild Card round? Not having to play in it at all. That should be the objective.
Oddsmakers see Bills-Chiefs as a true coinflip. The Bills’ moneyline as of Friday was +102, which is a 49.5% implied win probability.
More Week 14 Playoff Permutations
Two other Sunday games deserve the attention of the Dolphins and their fans:
Los Angeles Rams vs. Baltimore Ravens and Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Cleveland Browns.
The Ravens (9-3) and Jaguars (8-4) lead their respective divisions and are the only two other realistic threats to the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
A Rams win would have almost as positive of an impact on the Dolphins’ top-seed chances as a Bills win would. Unfortunately, Los Angeles is just +295 to win (a 25.3% implied probability).
The Browns, meanwhile, are actually favored to beat the banged-up Jaguars. Of the three Sunday showdowns, this has the least potential benefit to the Dolphins.
Want to predict the rest of the 2023 season with our FREE NFL Playoff Predictor? Looking for the most up-to-date NFL standings? What about a breakdown of team depth charts or the NFL schedule? Pro Football Network has you covered with that and more!