We’ve got a pair of Monday night games this week, and this one appears to be one-sided. Will it be? I think so, but that doesn’t stop me from building out a statistically supported Tennessee Titans vs. Miami Dolphins same game parlay that results in a ticket north of +500!
Titans vs. Dolphins Betting Lines
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- Spread
Dolphins -13 - Moneyline
Titans +550, Dolphins -800 - Total
46.5
We here at Soppe HQ like to encourage responsible gaming, and in that vein, I’ll always offer you a trivia question off the top of these articles. Pose this question to a buddy you are watching the game with: answer correctly, and you pay for the SGP; misfire, and he/she is on the hook.
Titans vs. Dolphins Same Game Parlay
Trivia Question: True or false — Tua Tagovailoa has never thrown a touchdown pass on Monday Night Football?
It’s not how you start; it’s how you finish.
That cliche holds true in plenty of instances of life, and this game figures to be a prime example. The first-quarter spread is 3.5 points in this game, a number the Dolphins have failed to cover in the first 15 minutes in six of their past seven games. On the flip side, the Titans are 4-2 outright in first quarters under Will Levis (despite losing four of those six games).
This tracks. It shouldn’t be surprising that a rookie QB has his team looking better early in games when carrying out a script that isn’t impacted by the score or the flow of the game — the first quarter is largely planned out ahead of time, and that gives a quarterback who lacks experience as much comfort as he’ll have all game long.
As for the Dolphins, I think this makes sense too. Many of their games can get out of hand as this offense gets clicking and opponents are forced to operate outside of their comfort zone — it’s hard to do that early on. That obviously wasn’t the case last week in Washington, but on the whole, Miami’s dominance has come with time.
Tennessee’s success ends there. Defensive and special-teams touchdowns happen, but they aren’t possible to project. Here is a comprehensive list of the quarterbacks that have led their team to 20+ offensive points against Miami this season:
- Justin Herbert in Week 1 (road)
- Josh Allen in Week 4 (road)
- Jalen Hurts in Week 7 (road)
Those are all well above-average QBs who were playing at home with a first name that starts with J. Which of those boxes does Will Levis check?
Now, we get creative. The Titans struggle to catch the ball. That’s true on the offensive end, but I’m going to focus on their secondary. They’ve recorded a pick in just 25% of their games this season, a rate that is pacing to rank as the fourth worst since the winless Detroit Lions of 2008.
Tagovailoa’s interception rate is higher this season than last, but those interceptions haven’t come against this type of defense. Here are the splits for him when playing defense that rank bottom five in this stat this season compared to all other games:
- Bottom five: Intercepted once on 134 passes (0.7%)
- Otherwise: Intercepted nine times on 267 passes (3.4%)
The last leg of this bet is going to require you to sweat through the finish line (sorry to the East Coasters out there), but I aim to pick winners, not abide by bedtimes.
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The Dolphins have been the final team to score in seven of their nine wins this season, while the opponent has been the last team to score in five of six Levis starts. At first blush, I’m not sure how predictive trends like that are, but if the Dolphins start slow and keep their foot on the gas, it makes sense that they are going to be scoring down the stretch.
To that end, as Miami puts pressure on their opponents to keep up, late turnovers are very possible and thus position the ‘Fins to be the last team to score. On Tennessee’s side, we expect them to be out of their desired game script at this point, putting Levis in a vulnerable spot.
- Trivia Answer: False. Tagovailoa has played one MNF game in his career, and he found Jaylen Waddle for a one-yard score in that game.
- Same Game Parlay Pick: Titans 1Q (+3.5), Titans under 19.5 points, Dolphins last to score, Tua Tagovailoa under 0.5 interceptions
- Odds: +575 (at DraftKings)
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