Like I do every Monday morning, I give out NFL picks for every game for the upcoming week after the NFL betting lines first open.
But since then, NFL odds across the board have moved, and I’ve had more time to analyze these games. So here’s a fresher look at my NFL Week 14 predictions, with picks for every game on the slate including Bills vs. Chiefs and Eagles vs. Cowboys.
NFL Week 14 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread
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Los Angeles Rams vs. Baltimore Ravens Prediction
- Spread
Ravens -7.5 - Moneyline
Rams +300, Ravens -380 - Total
39.5
The Rams are surpassing almost everyone’s expectations from the preseason. They look like a legitimate Wild Card team when they have their offense completely healthy.
But they’ve struggled against other elite teams this season, and we’ve seen the Ravens blow out both the Lions and Seahawks in similar spots at home.
I’m not taking the full 7.5, however — I teased this down to Ravens -1.5 with the Bills up to +7.5.
Pick: Ravens -1.5 and Bills +7.5 in a 6-point teaser (-120 at DraftKings)
Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints Prediction
- Spread
Saints -4.5 - Moneyline
Panthers +190, Saints -225 - Total
37.5
This feels similar to last week when the Panthers opened as 5.5-point road underdogs to a division rival, but then the spread dropped to around a field goal, and they ended up covering the game.
The Saints, like the Buccaneers last week, feel overvalued here. They’re 0-5 ATS at home this season, and the Panthers received a big boost defensively with the return of DB Jaycee Horn last week.
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This is simply too many points for a mediocre (at best) Saints team. This spread is higher at FanDuel, so I’ll take it there.
Pick: Panthers +5.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
Indianapolis Colts vs. Cincinnati Bengals Prediction
- Spread
Bengals -2 - Moneyline
Colts +105, Bengals -125 - Total
43.5
The Colts were originally 3-point favorites, then the line dropped to Colts -1.5 after Monday Night Football, and now, the Bengals are giving two points. That is a dramatic shift.
There aren’t any new notable injuries on the Colts side, as we already knew Jonathan Taylor was injured, so this must be due to a ton of Bengals action.
I originally liked the Colts, then I changed my mind after watching Jake Browning. If he can continue playing like he did on Monday night, then it appears there isn’t much of gap between him and Gardner Minshew, and outside of quarterback, the Bengals have the better team.
Pick: Bengals -2
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Cleveland Browns Prediction
- Spread
Browns -3 - Moneyline
Jaguars +135, Browns -155 - Total
32.5
Trevor Lawrence was a limited participant in practice on Thursday, but even if he does play, he’s going to be nowhere close to 100% against a defense that’s allowing just 10 points per game at home.
If Lawrence is out, then you get C.J. Beathard in a really tough matchup, especially considering how weather could be a factor. If it’s Beathard, I like the Browns as a home favorite, but if it’s Lawrence and the total goes up, I’ll take the under.
Pick: Browns -3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons Prediction
- Spread
Falcons -2.5 - Moneyline
Buccaneers +110, Falcons -130 - Total
40.5
This season, the Falcons’ offense has been much better at home, averaging nearly a touchdown more per game than on the road. They’re also facing a Buccaneers defense that is 28th in EPA/play since they started the season 3-1.
If you remember, the last time these two teams played, only 29 combined points were scored. But if you were an over bettor, this was an extremely unlucky beat. There were five turnovers in the game, with four in the red zone, and two coming at the goal line on Desmond Ridder fumbles.
It also helps that both teams are really banged up on defense. Give me the over on a low total. I grabbed it at 39.5, but I still like it below 41.5.
Pick: Over 40.5
Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears Prediction
- Spread
Lions -3.5 - Moneyline
Lions -170, Bears +145 - Total
42.5
Jared Goff is playing outdoors in Chicago in December, yet they’re giving more than a field goal?!
This line has come down quite a bit from its opening spread of Lions -5. I agree with the movement, as that seemed like too many points.
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This is a favorable matchup for the Bears getting the hook at home. Their defense is much improved and are second best in the NFL in stopping the run. Chicago should be able to contain the Lions’ running game and force Detroit into being a one-dimensional passing attack.
Also, the last time these two teams played, the Bears nearly pulled off the upset in Detroit.
Pick: Bears +3.5
Houston Texans vs. New York Jets Prediction
- Spread
Texans -3.5 - Moneyline
Texans -190, Jets +160 - Total
33.5
The spread has dropped three points this week, as weather is expected to be a factor, with rain in the forecast as well as heavy winds in East Rutherford.
I’m not sure I can stomach betting on Zach Wilson and the Jets, but I think this matchup potentially works in their favor.
C.J. Stroud — who has been excellent as a rookie — has been far worse at home than on the road. Away from home, Stroud averages almost two yards less per pass attempt, has a QB rating 20 points lower, and has thrown 12 fewer touchdown passes.
Instead of taking the Jets, I’ll go with the under.
Pick: Under 33.5
Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers Prediction
- Spread
49ers -10.5 - Moneyline
Seahawks +450, 49ers -600 - Total
46.5
It’s awfully telling that this spread dropped two points after the 49ers embarrassed the Eagles in Philadelphia. You would think the opposite would happen after a win like that, but instead, the line moved in the Seahawks’ direction.
I’m not going to fade the 49ers. They’ve been a juggernaut when their offense is fully healthy. I’m going to keep riding their team total over, which is undefeated in games with Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel, because if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.
Pick: 49ers over 29.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Minnesota Vikings vs. Las Vegas Raiders Prediction
- Spread
Vikings -3 - Moneyline
Vikings -150, Raiders +130 - Total
40.5
I was surprised to see the Raiders getting 1.5 points at home in this matchup when the lines first opened, so I’m even more surprised to now see them as three-point underdogs.
The Vikings are getting Justin Jefferson back, but they were 5-2 without him. Before their bye week, Joshua Dobbs was falling back to reality, with four interceptions in his last game. The Dobbs story was fun, but I don’t think he’s deserving of being a three-point road favorite.
Although they have faced the Giants and Jets during this stretch, since Antonio Pierce has taken over as interim head coach, the Raiders have been the fifth-best defense by EPA/play in the NFL. This isn’t that bad of a team.
Pick: Raiders +3
Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers Prediction
- Spread
Chargers -2.5 - Moneyline
Broncos +125, Chargers -145 - Total
43.5
It’s hard for me to want to bet on the Chargers, but this line feels way too low.
Despite the difference in records, the Chargers are the far better team here. L.A. is 13th in DVOA compared to the Broncos at 22nd, and their point differential is 56 points better.
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Denver is still getting overvalued by their five-game winning streak, in which they had a turnover differential of +15. Last week, their turnover luck finally caught up to them in their loss to Houston.
Pick: Chargers -2.5
Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Prediction
- Spread
Chiefs -1.5 - Moneyline
Bills +105, Chiefs -125 - Total
48.5
It’s always scary to fade Patrick Mahomes, especially when he’s giving less than three points. Even more so when he’s a short home favorite coming off a loss.
But I think these teams are evenly matched, and the Bills are basically in a win-or-go-home situation with how they’ve fallen behind in the AFC playoff race.
Buffalo has been perhaps the most unlucky team this season, with no losses by more than one score. In fact, for the season, they’re 2-6 in one-score games, with one of the wins being a backdoor cover by the Buccaneers.
Given the value on the Bills compared to taking the Chiefs, I like them straight up even.
Pick: Bills +105
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys Prediction
- Spread
Cowboys -3.5 - Moneyline
Eagles +155, Cowboys -185 - Total
51.5
The Cowboys are averaging over 40 points per game at home and are facing an Eagles defense that they gained 406 yards of offense on the last time they played just a few weeks ago. While they did score 23 points, Dallas got stopped inside Philadelphia’s 5-yard line twice in a five-point loss.
While I think the Cowboys’ offense will put up a lot of points here, I’m also high on this matchup for that side of the ball for Philly. As impressive as this Dallas defense is, they’re definitely exploitable. We saw that last week when they gave up 35 points to the Seahawks.
But for the Eagles, they’ll be getting Dallas Goedert back, which is a huge boost for their offense. Jalen Hurts has missed his third favorite target, as he hasn’t had anyone else to throw to besides A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith.
It’s the highest total of the week and also on prime time, but I like the over.
Pick: Over 51.5
Tennessee Titans vs. Miami Dolphins Prediction
- Spread
Dolphins -13 - Moneyline
Titans +600, Dolphins -900 - Total
46.5
This is a similar matchup for the Dolphins as last week. They’re facing another really bad team that struggles to defend the pass — a dream matchup for Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill.
The Dolphins are 5-1 ATS this season when favored by more than a touchdown — I don’t want to be late to the party or fade that trend. I’m going to pass on this one.
Pick: Pass
Green Bay Packers vs. New York Giants Prediction
- Spread
Packers -6.5 - Moneyline
Packers -320, Giants +260 - Total
36.5
Jordan Love looks like the real deal, and an upset win over Mahomes on Sunday Night Football has put him on the map.
The Giants entered their bye last week on a two-game winning streak, but those wins come with an asterisk.
Against the Commanders, the score is inflated by a garbage-time defensive touchdown as time expired. They also forced six turnovers in that game, something we can’t expect from them again. Meanwhile, New York’s other win was a 10-7 victory against the Patriots, who actually outgained them.
This might be a public play, but I can’t find any reasons to fade Love and the Packers here.
Pick: Packers -6.5
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